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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by
Justin Lewis of KIS futures
or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
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Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, August 9, 2019
The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank says farm income and credit conditions show signs of stabilizing. In its second quarter survey of farm lending conditions, the bank says higher corn prices and trade relief payments could have contributed to a slower
pace of decline in expectations for farm income and credit. Although farm income was is expected to decrease in the third quarter of 2019, the pace of decline is expected to be the slowest since 2014.
Slightly more than 40 percent of bankers reported that farm income was lower, compared with almost 75 percent and 60 percent at the same time in 2016 and 2017. In addition, district bankers reported that deposits grew at a faster pace in some states while
farmland values remained steady. Demand for agricultural lending in the district remained high, but bankers anticipated slower growth in future months.
The 10th District includes Oklahoma along with parts of Missouri and New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. It is the second-largest Federal Reserve district.
or tap here
to read more from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City regarding the farm economy.
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On this week's episode of SUNUP, host Dave Deken and Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist
Dr. Kim Anderson discuss the China deal last week that is plaguing all agriculture commodity markets.
"I don't think much has changed over the last week," Anderson said. "If you look at wheat, on average China imports about 127 million bushels of wheat a year. Which is just a little bit more than Oklahoma's wheat crop. Of that 127 million only 38 million
come from the United States. Which is about 30% of China's imports. On the 2018-2019 marketing year for wheat, zero wheat was imported by China from the United States."
Anderson says, China only imports 144 million bushels of corn, with 23 million bushels of that being U.S. corn. However, China imports 3.2 billion bushels of soybeans each year, with 1.1 billion of those bushels coming from the U.S. Last year China only
imported 528 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. They also import about 5.9 million bales of cotton each year, of that 1.8 million bales come from the U.S., he added.
You can watch his visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now and see what else is on the lineup for this week's episode, by
Severe Drought Rears Its Head in Oklahoma for First Time Since October 2018 - Will It Expand Further?
Severe drought has made an appearance in the state for the first time since October 2018, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. According to
State Climatologist Gary McManus, an abrupt end of beneficial rains during June and then through July into August, coupled with periods of intense summer heat, and adding in an overgrowth of vegetation from the heavy rains of spring have placed
a ton of pressure on our available moisture supply - which has led to a rapid decline in soil moisture.
As you can see from the map above, deficits are currently scattered across the western half of Oklahoma on the Oklahoma and continue to grow. The report pegs 45% of the state in "Abnormally Dry" conditions; 15% in "Moderate Drought"; and just under
4% in "Severe Drought" conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center is currently predicting increased odds for above normal temps and below normal precipitation into next week which will continue to fuel this 'flash drought.' However, there is the potential that model could change with
the latest reports showing the potential for possible rain chances into next week as well if the current heat dome breaks down. For a closer look at this week's Drought Monitor Map or to review McManus' full remarks,
AND- keep in mind that even as the Drought Monitor Report was released on Thursday morning- rain was falling in northern parts of the state- and here is the rainfall graphic we now have since latest Drought numbers were determined:
The counties where the Drought has been observed by the Drought Monitor got little or nothing thus far- so we will see if they join in the party or not over the next few days.
According to the Livestock Marketing Information Center's director, Katelyn McCullock, the crazy weather that has impacted the 2019 corn crop is likely to result in higher corn prices in the coming months, as well as lower
feeder cattle prices. McCullock points out the December corn futures contract is near $4.09 currently, which she says takes into account some of the existing yield and acreage considerations. However, she believes that number could actually climb higher as
more information on the corn crop becomes available.
"We're somewhere closer to the $4.50 range and that really takes into account probably some significant more yield drag than the market has on it right now, which includes that potential for an early frost," she said. "Our acreage is in the million to
a million and a half below what the acreage was last year - factored in. If you take both pieces of information - what we translate that to mean is that calf and feeder prices are likely going to be lower this fall because feed costs are going to be higher."
Based on the LMIC's calculations, McCullock estimates that as we come into late fall and early spring, calf prices will slip about $10/cwt lower, banking on a 50-cent appreciation in that December futures price. McCullock clarifies that this scenario
of course has its caveats and that the overall picture could potentially change as more information on the corn crop is made available. But, she contends that the information provided in future USDA Crop Progress reports might be unreliable for the time being
which could leave continue to build general uncertainty up until this fall and leave everything up in the air. In the meantime, she insists that cattle producers pay close attention to the markets as these factors come into play over the next few months.
You can listen to the while conversation between McCullock and I on Thursday's Beef Buzz -
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Incoming Oklahoma Pork Council President, Cathy Vaughan, Smithfield Foods safety coordinator, recently sat down with Associate Farm Director Carson Horn during the 2019 Oklahoma Pork Congress
to talk about the upcoming year.
When asked about the commitment of being on the board of an organization like the Oklahoma Pork Council, Vaughan says she feels like it is important for people who work in the industry to be a part of the state and national organizations which represent
them. The employees and companies in the industry want their voices heard, Vaughan added.
"I expect one of my big responsibilities this year, is to make sure we continue the conversations with producers and conversations with our lawmakers and people in our state agencies," she said. "To make sure that everyone is truly connected to how big
of an issue this could be if we get this disease in the United States. And fortunately, I think we are on the right path. But it is still very important for us to everyday have a conversation with people and how we do it. And that we take pride in being responsible
environmental stewards and animal care."
You can listen to their entire conversation on her expectations for the next year,
by jumping over to our website.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) Thursday announced legislation to support voluntary conservation practices on more than 100 million acres of U.S. farmland. The bill would also fund the planting of 10 billion
With the right practices in place, farmland and forests could capture and store carbon in the ground, studies show. In addition, changes in the timing and amount of fertilizer applications could reduce emissions of nitrous oxide, a powerful greenhouse
Booker's Climate Stewardship Act would increase funding for existing conservation programs to support voluntary climate stewardship practices identified by the Department of Agriculture. The bill would also expand programs to restore grasses and trees
on frequently flooded or drought-prone farmland.
"No one understands the impacts of the climate crisis better than American farmers, who are already reeling from the effects of extreme weather," said Scott Faber, EWG's vice president of government affairs. "Everyone
can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially energy companies. But farmers are uniquely positioned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve carbon right away."
You can read more about the legislation announced by Sen. Booker,
by clicking or tapping here.
The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association are jointly urging the
Trump administration to support the Renewable Fuel Standard.
NCGA President Lynn Chrisp and ASA President Davie Stephens penned an editorial this week, urging Trump to uphold his commitment to America's farmers and the RFS. Since early 2018, the Environmental Protection Agency has granted 53
RFS waivers to big oil companies, "undermining the RFS and reducing corn and soybean demand." EPA has an additional 38 waiver petitions pending.
The two leaders say the waivers "have resulted in an estimated $2 billion in economic harm each year to the U.S. biodiesel industry." They allege the waivers run counter to President Trump's much-touted support for America's farmers and renewable fuels.
Additionally, Chrisp and Stephens say the disruptions in the renewable fuels market could not come at a worse time for agriculture, noting the complicated growing season and uncertainty in markets stemming from trade disputes.
The leaders call on Trump to order the EPA to "not undermine the RFS."
AND FINALLY- Take a Listen to Oklahoma Congressman Frank Lucas on This Edition of Open Mic Live
There are so many Podcasts these days- and more are popping up all the time- which ones should you spend your time on? Well, I would hope that you might subscribe to our three Podcasts- our
Morning farm and ranch news, our daily Beef Buzz and then the
Ag Perspectives Podcast that we post when we have interesting newsmakers we want to share with you- currently- you can find them thru iTunes.
Another Podcast you might want to check out is one hosted by a farm broadcast friend of ours-
Jeff Nalley- the weekly Agri-Pulse Podcast called Open Mic Live. It has been around for almost a decade- and was established by the late
Stewart worked for me back before he went to Agri-Pulse and during the early stages of the 2014 Farm Bill conversation- he drove over from Little Rock where he lived and we did a road trip together up to Dodge City and a Farm Bill Listening Session that was
held by House Ag Committee Chairman Frank Lucas.
On the way back- we pulled off in Watonga and Stewart sat up his mobile recording setup to do a phone interview for his new weekly audio report on the Agri-Pulse website- we stopped there because we were able to get a decent cell signal. I don't recall the
guest that week that Stewart had made an appointment to talk to for the twenty minute interview- but I treasure that ag broadcast adventure as it was the last time I saw Stewart alive- he had a heart attack and died a few weeks later.
However- one of his legacies that continues and thrives today is the Podcast he established- and Agri-Pulse has chosen not to put it behind their pay wall all the years it has been running.
I call your attention to it this week as Jeff's guest is Oklahoma Third District Congressman Frank Lucas. they got into an interesting discussion about several key rural issues- and I would encourage you to check it out-
click or tap here and you can do just that.
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