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Let's Check the Markets!
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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
At the Oklahoma National Stockyards,
the final sale in September saw 6,900 head of cattle on hand- Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded unevenly steady. Steer calves 500-600 lbs. steady to 2.00 higher, lighter weights not tested. Click or tap here
for the complete report from USDA Market News.
At OKC West
in El Reno slaughter cows sold 3.00-5.00 higher, slaughter bulls sold steady on a lighter test - click here
to review the complete report from the USDA.
Joplin Regional Stockyards
had a total run of 5,254 on Monday- Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves and yearlings steady to 3.00 higher- click or tap here
for the complete report as put together by USDA Market News.
has 846 head of cattle on their showlist for the Wednesday, October 2nd sale of finished cattle - click here
to jump to the website.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
Kane Kinion, Web and Email Editorial Assistant
Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
| Featured Story:
The United States Department of Agriculture released its latest Crop Progress Report on Monday, September 30, 2019. According to this week's report, the overall conditions remain on the positive side with continued progress in the development of the crops. Focusing on corn, the crop's good to excellent ratings stayed the same at 57% good to excellent condition. But still looks a bit less desirable compared to last year's rating at this time of 69% good to excellent. Corn denting this week came in at 88% versus 79% last week, the five-year average at this time is 98%. Corn maturity came in at 43% this week versus 29% last week, the five-year average at this time is 73%. Corn harvested came in at 11% this week versus 7% last week, the five-year average at this time is 19%. The good to excellent ratings for soybeans this week came in at the same 55% as last week. Still behind last year's 68% good to excellent ratings. Pasture and range conditions this week nationally came in at 47% good to excellent, 30% fair and 25% poor to very poor.
Click here to review the full USDA Crop Progress Report for the week of September 30, 2019.
Winter Wheat Planting continues in the southern plains- Oklahoma has reached 45% planted, Texas 34% and Kansas 30%- all close with the average in their respective states.
Otherwise- State by State:
In Oklahoma, pasture and range condition this week in Oklahoma are reported at 6% poor to very poor, 33% fair and 61% good to excellent. Most spring crops continue to catch up in their development, though still way behind in some crops. To review the full Oklahoma Crop Progress Report for this week, click here.
In Kansas, pasture and range conditions rated 8% poor to very poor, 26% fair, 66% good to excellent. To review the full Kansas Crop Progress Report for this week, click here.
Finally, across Texas, pasture and range this week rates 18% good to excellent, 33% fair and 49% poor to very poor. To review the full Texas Crop Progress Report for this week, click here.
To sum up the current pasture and range condition here in the Southern Plains- here's the Good to Excellent Ratings for this week and the change from last week:
Oklahoma 61% +3%
Kansas 66% -3%
Texas 18% -1%
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Kansas Congressman Roger Marshall of the Big First District of that state came to the Kansas State-Oklahoma State football game in Stillwater over the weekend- and then stayed in Oklahoma into the first of the week where he toured the Oklahoma National Stockyards on sale day Monday- talking with cattle producers at the final sale in September. He complemented the leadership at the Stockyards as saying it was the cleanest stockyard facility he had ever seen- and was impressed with the smooth operation on a very busy sale day.
While at the Stockyards, he sat down with us his race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Pat Roberts in 2020 and the issues he is building his platform on.
Among the many issues covered during our conversation, Dr. Marshall touched on the 2018 Farm Law, his appreciation of the Trump Administration's trade mitigation and his hopes that the trade dispute with China can be resolved sooner rather than later. He also praised President Trump for signing an agreement with Japan and is optimistic that a vote on USMCA will happen this fall.
Marshall's district includes Finney County, the home of the Tyson Beef Plant that was damaged by fire in early August. He reports that work has been moving forward in getting the huge plant back on line. You can hear Congressman Marshall's comments on those issues and more by clicking here.
Let's start Part Two of our look at COOL with a link that I left out of the Part One yesterday- that link was a look back to the November 2014 Food Demand Survey results from Dr. Jayson Lusk that consumers in that time frame knew little about the COOL label and seemed to not care all that much about the country information- click or tap here for that OSU produced report.
In part one- we had brought you up to the Congressional repeal of the second COOL rule in December 2015- and it's there where we see opponents of COOL moving on- while supporters of the mandatory labeling concept continuing to look for ways to bring COOL back.
In January 2017, R-Calf CEO Bill Bullard seemed to have fresh hope for COOL as President Elect Trump was getting ready to take office. Bullard wrote an Op-Ed taking shots at Greg Henderson of Drovers for saying that his organization was tilting at windmills- including COOL.
Henderson wrote of the rapid appreciation of cattle prices in 2014- fueled by tight supplies because of the drought in 2012-2013 that dramatically brought down beef cow numbers, which obviously reduced the available calf crop and higher prices came rolling in. 2015 saw cattle prices coming back to earth and on that Henderson wrote "But when the market inevitably came tumbling in 2015, followed by the free-fall of 2016, producers were staring at another shake-out that left many on the brink.
"It's human nature to seek a scapegoat, and wherever there's a coffee shop full of angry cowboys, the folks from Ranchers Cattlemen's Action Legal Fund (R-CALF USA) are happy to stoke their anger with half-truths and misinformation."
Bullard responded, saying "For nearly two decades R-CALF USA stood accused of windmill tilting because we advocated trade policy reforms. America will now have a President that shares our concerns and he helped us defeat a major free trade agreement patterned after all the others.
"We were likewise accused when we helped pass country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for fruits, vegetables, fish, seafood, certain nuts, lamb, chicken, venison, beef and pork. Although beef and pork were recently removed, COOL still applies to all the other commodities. We intend to reinstate mandatory COOL for beef in 2017."
You can read the Drovers editorial by clicking here- and you can read Bullard's push back by clicking or tapping here.
Since 2017- Bullard has been unable to keep his COOL promise made that year- but he has not stopped talking about it.
He has been in Oklahoma a couple of times with the startup of the Oklahoma Independent Stockgrowers Association, which was formed by Andrea Hutchison after OCA members voted down her proposals to criticize involvement in the US Roundtable for Sustainable Beef.
We have talked to him when he has been in Oklahoma- and he always has had on his wish list a return to mandatory COOL- click or tap here for one such encounter from the fall of 2018.
Now- let's fast forward to 2019 and cattle prices have taken a hit following the Tyson Foods fire at their plant in Holcomb, Kansas- the response by the market to the shutting down of that plant was a drop in fed cattle prices (pushing yearling and calf prices down, too) while boxed beef values went higher as retailers and food service were caught short bought- and scrambled to buy beef for their needs- and that actually pushed wholesale beef up.
Red ink flowed for feedlot closeouts while packer margins went further into the black- and the Organization for Competitive Markets seized on this and have helped organize a Tweet Storm to attempt to get the attention of President Trump in their call for a return to Mandatory COOL,
Dozens of cattle producers have called on President Donald Trump in recent days to reinstate COOL because they believe that will counter low cattle prices. One producer joined Twitter in recent days and wrote "@realDonaldTrump You are an incredibly busy guy but we in rural America are asking you to do one more thing, look into the meat packer concentration, it is detrimental to the livestock industry in the US. Give it a look can't hurt #FAIRCATTLEMARKETS"
Another tweet reads "Why did country of origin labeling not make it into usmca. Why are we giving foreign owened Packers traid aid and letting them sell imported beef to consumers with "a product of the usa" label on it. #FairCattleMarkets are needed for hard working Americans." (their spelling- not mine)
OCM is leading the charge on this effort with a rally planned for tomorrow in Omaha- They say they are mad as hell and are not going to take it anymore- the theme of the rally is "Rally to Stop the Stealing."
One more tweet that offers a bit of balance in this emotional campaign- offered by a Tweeter named BullsEyeBeef- "We may have some issues that need to be addressed in our industry but COOL isn't one of them. #stickwiththefacts #FairCattleMarkets. Did COOL impact the price/demand relationship for beef?" The tweet ends with a link to an article by Dr. Nevil Speer who looks at demand and prices and COOL- and says that if you look at the facts- "COOL did NOT influence the price/consumption relationship."
In other words- according to Dr. Speer, COOL did not help demand and did not help improve cattle prices.
According to the USDA Small Grains Annual Summary, All wheat production totaled 1.96 billion bushels in 2019, up 4 percent from the revised 2018 total of 1.89 billion bushels. Area harvested for grain totaled 38.1 million acres, down 4 percent from the previous year. The United States yield was estimated at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 4.0 bushels from the previous year. The levels of production and changes from 2018 by type were: winter wheat, 1.30 billion bushels, up 10 percent; other spring wheat, 600 million bushels, down 4 percent; and Durum wheat, 57.7 million bushels, down 26 percent.
The Oklahoma winter wheat crop was the largest harvest since 2016, with a final production for 2019 established at 110 million bushels, compared to just 70 million bushels raised in 2018. The 2019 production was produced on 2.75 million harvested acres- with a final yield per acre of 40 bushels, a record yield for Oklahoma farmers. USDA reported that 99% of the wheat crop in Oklahoma was hard red winter wheat, with the other one percent being soft red winter wheat.
Texas, reported wheat production totaled 69.7 million bushels, up from 56.0 million in 2018 and up from 68.2 million bushels in 2017. Their fields yielded 34.0 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above last year.
Kansas was the second largest wheat producing state in the United States in 2019, with North Dakota ending up with more 18 million bushels of all classes of wheat raised. Total wheat production for Kansas was 338 million bushels, based on 52 bushels per acres times 6.5 million acres harvested.
Click here to read more about the wheat crop totals for Oklahoma.
Midwest Farm Shows is proud to produce the two best Farm Shows in the State of Oklahoma annually- the Tulsa Farm Show each December and the Oklahoma City Farm Show each April.
They would like to thank all of you who participated in their 2019 Oklahoma City Farm Show.
Up next will be the Tulsa Farm Show in December 2019- the dates are December 12th, 13th, and 14th.
Now is the ideal time to contact the Midwest Farm Show Office at 507-437-7969 and book space at the 2019 Tulsa Farm Show. To learn more about the Tulsa Farm Show, click here.
USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks Report on Monday, September 30th- which means the corn and soybean stock numbers are the official year end numbers.
Every quarter USDA surveys holders of grain to determine remaining old crop stocks. This is called the Grain Stocks report, not to be confused with the monthly supply/demand estimates which discuss ending stocks. The September 30 Grain Stocks is special as it represents stocks as of September 1, the end of the old crop marketing year for corn and soybeans. Today's number is now the official old crop ending stock. USDA's previous attempts had all been estimates.
As this is not a supply/demand report there was no breakdown regarding demand for this report. That will be revealed on the October supply/demand report which incorporates these changes. This year's Grain Stocks survey covered 63,100 producers.
Allendale's Rich Nelson offered his thoughts in a video review of the Monday report-he calls it a friendly end of year report for corn and soybeans, as USDA revised ending stocks of corn a large amount to the down side- and also soybean ending stocks were lower than expected. He adds that the wheat numbers are slightly negative early in the current marketing year.
You can view the video from Nelson regarding the ending stocks for corn, soybean and wheat, by clicking or tapping here.
Executive Director of the Oklahoma Pork Council Roy Lee Lindsey testified at a recent interim study hearing conducted by the Oklahoma House Agriculture Committee, regarding his position on proposed legislation that would institute a mandatory labeling system for meat products, specifically beef, produced in Oklahoma. Lindsey offered his perspective on this concept from a pork industry standpoint, suggesting such a system would have only negative impacts on the industry he represents as well as the other protein industries which he works alongside.
"Over the last six or eight years, we've seen legislation introduced almost every session to require some form of 'Country of Origin Labeling' on meat, protein, beef, pork or poultry here in the state," Lindsey remarked in an interview with me. "Inevitably, we end up going around in circles explaining to legislators why this is bad for the industry and how it doesn't return value and all the reasons it doesn't work."
Lindsey says that the proponents of COOL believe the system will promote greater demand for domestic product and thus elevate prices. However, he contends that the policy actually causes the exact opposite effect.
"If that were the case and we really believed the consumer will pay extra for a product labelled 'Product of the USA,' wouldn't we already be doing it voluntarily?"
You can listen to the whole conversation between Lindsey and I regarding MCOOL - here.
In this week's edition of the "Cow Calf Corner" newsletter, Dr. Derrell Peel talks about the slaughter patterns in the cattle market after the Tyson Plant fire.
"The fire on August 8, 2019 at the Tyson Finney County, Kansas packing plant caused huge disruptions in markets like a big rock thrown into a pond," Peel said. "With seven weeks passed since then the impacts and resulting ripple effects are clearer now and are fading as expected."
Peel says the packing industry has remained stable since the fire. With 5% of the steer and heifer slaughter capacity being gone, they have pushed the industry capacity to its max.
"The risk going forward is whether the packing industry can continue to hold slaughter rates high through the end of the year under emergency conditions," Peel concluded. "Large Saturday kills are not only more costly but cannot be maintained indefinitely. There will continue to be stresses on fed cattle demand and flows of cattle to slaughter until the damaged plant returns to operation. The next article will look at price disruptions and recovery in boxed beef and cattle markets."
The new Chief Executive Officer of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and longtime lobbyist for the organization, Colin Woodall, made one of his first actions as CEO this past week in his decision to push back on derogatory claims against NCBA by the Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM).
"The OCM is a fringe group that is supported by the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS). They go around saying they represent producers and talk about what they do for producers," Woodall said. "But what everybody needs to understand is that OCM and HSUS do not have the best interests of producers at heart. They never have and they never will. OCM's CEO, a guy by the name of Joe Maxwell, used to work for HSUS. He's not a producer and he is somebody who spends his time now, funded with HSUS dollars, attacking NCBA."
According to Woodall, OCM this past week issued a press release alleging that NCBA "granted" itself $27 million in Checkoff funds. Woodall refuted those claims in a press release of his own, clarifying that the funds in which OCM was referring to were actually appropriated by the producer leaders that serve on the Beef Checkoff Operating Committee, which published its budget for the coming fiscal year. As a legitimate contractor to the Checkoff, NCBA was awarded operational expenses by the Checkoff to fund committee approved projects on the Checkoff's behalf and for the good and further advancement of the US beef industry.
You can listen to the entire conversation between Woodall and I on Monday's Beef Buzz - here.
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