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Let's Check the Markets!
Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
Macey Mueller, Email and Web Writer
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, September 23, 2016
China's premier promised to resume Chinese imports of U.S. beef soon, calling it a sign of Beijing's sincerity to improve commercial ties with the U.S. Speaking to U.S. business groups in New York on Tuesday night, Premier Li Keqiang said China would soon allow imports of U.S. beef. "We also recognize that the United States has very good beef, so why should we deny Chinese customers this choice?" Li said.
Though the premier didn't give a specific timetable, trade groups have previously said imports may resume before the end of the year. China has had a ban in place on most U.S. beef imports since 2003 when mad-cow disease was found in some American beef cattle- otherwise known as the time when we had a Canadian Dairy Cow in Washington State Steal Christmas.
"This is great news for U.S. beef producers," said Kent Bacus, director of international trade for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. "While these initial reports are positive, we must continue technical negotiations and undergo the process of formally approving export certificates. China is already the world's second largest buyer of beef, and with a growing middle class, the export opportunities for U.S. cattlemen and women are tremendous."
The Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association released a statement following the announcement by NCBA, hailing the organization for its efforts in negotiating the opening of China's marketplace.
"This is great, no, outstanding news for Oklahoma cattle ranchers," OCA stated. "Exports are so important to the cattle market and China has the potential to be a major market. Our hats off to NCBA for their work to make this happen and their continued work to finalize the protocols. If we are able to couple this great news with passage of TPP this fall, the cattle market would be set for a much needed positive lift."
The next step is for United States Department of Agriculture officials to work with China's Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine to approve the certificates and protocols for exports.
It's those additional negotiations that will determine when and if we will really see shipments of beef to China. The President of the US Meat Export Federation, Phil Seng remains in the wait and see camp- ""While this is an important first step in the process of resuming beef exports to China, USMEF understands that China must still negotiate with USDA the conditions that will apply to U.S. beef exports entering this market. USMEF looks forward to learning more details about the remaining steps necessary for the market to officially open and for U.S. suppliers to begin shipping product."
Click here for full comment from NCBA on China proposing to lift their ban on US beef.
It's great to welcome the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards as a new sponsor for our daily email. The eight Commission firms at the Stockyards make up the exchange- and they are committed to work hard to get you top dollar when you consign your cattle with them. They will present your cattle to the buyers gathered each Monday or Tuesday at one of the largest stocker and feeder cattle auctions in the world.
Click here for a complete list of the Commission firms that make up the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards- still the best place to sell your cattle- and at the heart of Stockyards City, where you can go around the corner enjoy a great steak and shop for the very best in western wear.
|Don't Wait, It'll Be Too Late! Insider Advice for Producers as Crop Insurance Deadline Nears
September 30th is only about one week away, which means it's time for wheat farmers to be making some quick decisions, as the window to sign up for crop insurance in 2017 comes to a close. I met with Scott Bulling of Superior Crop Insurance to get his advice on what questions producers need to be talking to their agents about.
"That's for wheat, rye, barley and oats, even though we're going to plant oats in the spring," Bulling said. "So, if you want them insured, you better sign up now."
Bulling reminds producers it is best to just sign up now while you can even if you're on the fence about planting, because there is no money down and you are only responsible for the acres you plant. If you choose not plant this year, no problem. There's no fee or premiums if you change your mind.
Bulling says, with prices so low this year, there is no room for error. His agency remains hopeful for some market recovery over the next year, offering applicants a projected price for wheat at $4.59/bushel, that is substantially above the cash market. He also mentioned a relatively new option available to farmers, called yield exclusion.
Bulling says it can have a substantial impact on the amount of coverage for which you qualify, and highly recommends speaking to your local insurance agent about it. Aside from that, when speaking to your agent, Bulling says to ask all the right questions.
"You want to look at whether you're going to take a revenue policy or a yield policy," Bulling said. "Look at your coverage level; do you take the enterprise or optional unit structure? Do you take the yield exclusion? Also, look at the supplemental coverage option."
Click here for a chance to listen to my entire conversation with Scott and get more of his insider advice and tips for making your crop insurance decisions this year.
|Despite Recent Bright Spots in the Market, OSU's Dr. Kim Anderson Still Nervous Over Wheat Prices
Dr. Kim Anderson joins Lyndall Stout this week on OETA's SUNUP, giving the latest on grain market prices. Anderson has a few bright spots in the market to report, but nonetheless says he remains a little nervous overall about how long it may take to get wheat prices back up.
"I think the soonest that we could expect that would be September/October of 2017 and it may be 2018 in September/October before we get those prices up in the $5, $6 or $7 range," Anderson said.
Currently, Anderson says all market prices are "just wallowing around right now," citing .25 risks in wheat and corn contracts and a .40 risk with beans.
As far as the export market goes, Dr. Anderson says Morocco just put in an order for roughly 5 million bushels of feed wheat. His hopes are that this will potentially clear out some of the wheat stored in bunkers around the state right now, and with any luck help prices some. According to Anderson, overall HRW exports are 85 percent higher from last year, while total export wheat sales are up 23 percent.
You can catch Dr. Anderson on SUNUP Saturday at 7:30 a.m. or Sunday at 6 a.m., or you can listen to his commentary now, by clicking here.
|Noble Foundation Collaborates with University of Georgia on Development of New White Clover Variety
Researchers at The Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation and University of Georgia (UGA) have developed a new white clover variety called Renovation to help agricultural producers improve and maintain healthy, productive pastures.
Renovation is the first white clover released by the Noble Foundation and the first commercial product of the joint breeding effort. The goal for the Noble-UGA forage breeding program was to develop new white clover (a legume) varieties that could help restore perennial grass pastures throughout the southern United States.
"Renovation was developed to extend the life of perennial grass pastures and improve forage quality," said Mike Trammell, Noble Foundation plant breeder. "Its genetic makeup results from a southern clover variety bred with a large-leaf variety to produce excellent overall persistence and animal performance."
Renovation white clover is ideal for grazing livestock and wildlife food plots, and helps maintain healthy soils by controlling erosion and providing slope stabilization.
Click here for the full story on Noble's newest innovation.
We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update. On both the state and national levels, full-time staff members serve as a "watchdog" for family agriculture producers, mutual insurance company members and life company members.
Click here to go to their AFR website to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!
Although weekly beef production has slowed some coming off the Labor Day holiday weekend, OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel believes, we're still doing just fine, looking at the overall beef demand picture. I asked Dr. Peel recently, what producers can expect to see in the beef market moving forward?
"I think it's a little hard to read, frankly, in this post-Labor Day period," Peel said. "One of the things we're going to see going forward, that I think we're beginning to see, is less of an increase year over year."
Peel says the market is progressing as expected right now, recovering some from last year's tight supplies, high prices and decreased exports. International trade though, he says, will certainly play a role in keeping profitability in place for the US cattle industry.
"Obviously a strong dollar and the exchange rate issue continues to be a bit of a headwind," Peel said. "At the same time, I think there's pretty good demand on a global basis for US beef."
You can listen to my entire conversation with Dr. Peel on his outlook for US beef demand at home and abroad, by clicking here.
Want to Have the Latest Energy News Delivered to Your Inbox Daily?
Award winning broadcast journalist Jerry Bohnen has spent years learning and understanding how to cover the energy business here in the southern plains- Click here to subscribe to his daily update of top Energy News.
Yesterday, Allendale released their projected estimates on both USDA's Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports, which are due out by the USDA this afternoon by 2:00PM-CT. Here's what Allendale expects to see.
August Placements are expected to be 13.1% larger than last year at 1.846 million head. This was the largest August placement in four years. It also represents seven months in a row of higher than last year placements. USDA's cattle feeding margin model showed a $72 per head loss for outgoing cattle in August for a very light 1,250 lb. animal. Corn averaged $2.80 in Western Kansas in August ($2.76 in July, $3.69 in August 2015). August placements supply the January through April slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 12.3% larger than August 2015 at 1.783 million. This was the largest July marketing in three years. There were two more weekdays in August 2016 vs. 2015 and one less Saturday. This artificially increased the number by 3.8%.
Total Cattle on Feed as of September 1 is 1.9% larger than last year at 10.173 million. That is an increase over the August 1 total that was +1.6% from one year ago.
Beef stocks, at 468 million lbs., are above the five-year average of 422. This represents a decrease of 1 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 12 million lb. decrease.
Click here to view Allendale's unabridged projection of USDA's reports.
|This N That- Superior Online Sale Today, Rainfall This Weekend and Congrats to JD Strong
There are 22,000 head of cattle that will be sold starting at 8:00 AM central time this morning on Superior Livestock
- that includes 3,800 yearling steers, 2,700 yearling heifers, 9,300 weaned calves and 4,000 calves on cows.Click here
for more details about today's auction from Superior- and click or tap here
for the Click to Bid page for today's sale.
A couple of graphics help us paint the rainfall picture across the region over the next few days- first, let's start with the national rainfall map for the seven day period that starts today:
Places like San Angelo are poised to get a lotta water. And- a pretty good amount of rainfall may fall across the middle slice of Oklahoma.
As for the timing of that rainfall- we turn our attention to the nine day planner from our colleague Jed Castles
with News9 in OKC:
It looks like the Panhandle gets little precipitation in this weekend's forecast- and for Eastern Oklahoma- Alan Crone
with the News on 6 sees rainfall and the cooler temps that Jed has in his graphics- click or tap here
for the Green Country weather blog.
Finally- in case you missed it- we wanted to say congrats to JD Strong
, who has been a friend to agriculture as he has served as the top hired hand at the Oklahoma Water Resources Board- JD is moving a few blocks over to the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation- taking the position as their Executive Director as of October 17th. Richard Hatcher
, who has been in that role since 2009- plans to retire as of October first. Click here
for details about JD moving to ODWC.
Several ag groups, including the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association, are cheering the selection of JD Strong- OCA says in a statement furnished to us "OCA extends our congratulations to JD Strong as the leader for the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. We have appreciated JD's leadership at the Oklahoma Water Resources Board and look forward to working with him on many important issues related to wildlife, landowners and beef cattle. We also send best wishes to Richard Hatcher in his retirement."
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