|We invite you to listen to us on great radio stations across the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network weekdays- if you missed this morning's Farm News - or you are in an area where you can't hear it- click here for this morning's Farm news
from Ron Hays on RON.
Today's report features a part of our conversation on Thursday with OSU Wheat Breeder Dr. Brett Carver!
Let's Check the Markets!
Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures click here for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
Macey Mueller, E-mail and Web Writer
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, September 29, 2016
Congress Updates Packers & Stockyards Act- Sends HR 5883 to the White House
The Senate on Thursday sent the Clarification of Treatment of Electronic Sales of Livestock Act to the White House. The bill would amend the Packers & Stockyards Act of 1921 to ensure that the law's protections are extended to online or video livestock auctions.
The bill would also ensure modern electronic banking options. The Senate approved H.R. 5883 - the companion bill to S. 3350 by Sens. Thad Cochran
(R., Miss.) and Jon Tester
(D., Mont.) - by unanimous consent. The Senate's action was the last step in a hurry up effort that began in the House Ag Committee in July- resulting in this modernization of the venerable Packers & Stockyards Act in short order.
Cochran, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said, "I am confident that this bipartisan legislation will be signed into law and that the protections it offers to producers will improve livestock transactions."
Like all businesses, livestock auctions have evolved as technology has allowed for new forms of buying and selling livestock, such as video and online sales. As a result, modern methods of payment, such as use of credit cards, have become commonplace in the livestock marketing industry. H.R. 5883 revises the Packers & Stockyards Act to ensure that these types of businesses and forms of payment are allowed under the act. This change ensures that farmers and ranchers selling through online and video auctions are provided similar protections as those who sell at a fixed-facility livestock market.Click here
to read more about this update to the Packers & Stockyards Act.
It's great to welcome the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards as a new sponsor for our daily email. The eight Commission firms at the Stockyards make up the exchange- and they are committed to work hard to get you top dollar when you consign your cattle with them. They will present your cattle to the buyers gathered each Monday or Tuesday at one of the largest stocker and feeder cattle auctions in the world.
Click here for a complete list of the Commission firms that make up the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards- still the best place to sell your cattle- and at the heart of Stockyards City, where you can go around the corner enjoy a great steak and shop for the very best in western wear.
|Annual Fall Lease Auctions Scheduled For School Land Trust
It is that time of year again when the Commissioners of the Land Office will be auctioning off five-year term leases to parcels of school land around the state to benefit public education in Oklahoma. I met with Harry Birdwell, secretary of the Commissioners of the Land Office, this week to get a feel for how these auctions have been working out for the Land Office and what potential bidders can expect this year. Birdwell says that the Land Office currently manages roughly 750,000 surface acres and about 1.3 million mineral acres. One fifth of that total will be up for auction this year."We do have quite a lot of land in the state of Oklahoma," Birdwell said. "This year those auctions will be held beginning October 17th and ending November 1st. All the proceeds from cropland and grazing land and recreational land in 43 counties in Oklahoma go for the benefit of K-12 and higher education in the state."According to Sec. Birdwell, live auctions will take place this fall at nine different locations throughout the state, where a total 570 tracks of land will be up for lease, most of which are quarter sections. Birdwell directs those potentially interested in bidding to the Land Office's website where details on all lots can be viewed.The 34th annual School Land Trust lease auctions will begin October 17 in Beaver County and conclude November 1 in Shawnee. Click here for a link to more information about the auctions.
|Record Harvests Around the World and How They Are Affecting Prices Here at Home
Oklahoma State University Extension Grains Market Analyst Dr. Kim Anderson talks wheat prices with SUNUP's Lyndall Stout this week - and reviews how crop harvests around the world are affecting prices here at home. A common theme happening around the globe it seems are crops hitting record high harvests.
Anderson notes that the US corn harvest happening now is being reported at 15 billion bushel, which still is a little lower than expected. Russia's wheat harvest is wrapping up with a record harvest, and Argentina and Australia will begin their wheat harvests very soon, both anticipating large yields as well. The shortfall here is in Australia; recent precipitation seems to be damaging the crop's quality. Anderson suggests this may help prices some at home, but it would take major problems with Argentina's crop to make any significant impacts. He estimates a situation like this could boost prices 40-50 cents higher up to a dollar in extreme cases. He admits though, that while there is always room for hope, the probability of this occurring is unlikely. Wheat exports however seem to be in relatively good demand, higher from last year all around running upwards of 20-30 percent higher.Looking in the long term though, Anderson says the answer will not be found in quantity but quality. He insists producers' focus needs to be on growing a product high in protein and test weight with good milling quality. Accomplishing that could drive prices up to $4.00 he says. Inversely, prices could drop below $3.00 if we get another large, poor quality crop.You can watch their visit this weekend on SUNUP or click here to listen to Dr. Anderson's comments now.
Be sure to tune into SUNUP on Saturday at 7:30 a.m. and Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV.
|Big Corn and Soybean Crops Get Bigger is a Myth!
The following analysis has been written and researched by Scott Irwin and Darrel Good of the University of Illinois.
There is a long-standing market saying that "big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller." This statement refers to the yield forecasting cycle of the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). That cycle for corn and soybeans consists of monthly yield forecasts that begin in August and extend through November and culminate with the final yield estimate for the season that is released in January following harvest. Specifically, the statement implies that early NASS yield forecasts are "conservative" in years when yields are high and get larger as the forecast cycle progresses and are "optimistic" in years when yields are low and get smaller as the forecast cycle progresses. These notions are tied to the more general idea that NASS yield forecasts are "smoothed," meaning that the final yield estimate results from cumulative monthly changes in forecasts in the same direction. Some tend to believe that smoothing of NASS yield forecasts, particularly in years of yield extremes, is intentional in order to minimize or spread the price impact of very large or small yields. Alternatively, yield forecasts may appear to be intentionally smoothed simply due to the fact that forecasts become more accurate during the forecast cycle as more actual yield information is incorporated into the forecasts.
The general issue of smoothing of NASS corn and soybean production forecasts was analyzed by Isengildina, Irwin, and Good (2004), and specifically, whether big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller was examined by Isengildina, Irwin, and Good (2013). We updated and extended the analysis of Isengildina, Irwin, and Good (2013) in two farmdoc daily articles (August 20, 2014, September 10, 2014). The statistical evidence from this body of work simply does not support the conclusion that big corn and soybean crops get bigger or small crops get smaller. Yet, there continues to be widespread belief that there is substantial truth in the old market adage. Perhaps the reason that the belief persists is that we have not adequately explained why those relationships do not hold up under examination. Here, we take another look at the question with the emphasis on explaining why this widespread market belief is actually a myth. Our analysis focuses on September USDA corn and soybean forecasts because that is most relevant to the questions being raised about potentially big 2016 yields becoming even bigger.
Click here to continue reading the researchers' analysis of NASS' yield forecasting cycle.
We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update. On both the state and national levels, full-time staff members serve as a "watchdog" for family agriculture producers, mutual insurance company members and life company members.
Click here to go to their AFR website to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!
|The Great Wall - Unsettled Negotiations Continue to Block US Beef From Chinese Markets
With China's recent announcement signaling they are willing to reopen their markets to US beef, there still remains a lot of work to be done, negotiating terms and protocols, before product from American producers ever starts to ship overseas. I spoke with Kent Bacus of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association recently, who says with China's population over one billion strong and growing, this is one market really worth working hard for. The Chinese middle class alone, he says, is bigger than the entire US population.
"This really all started with the cow that stole Christmas in 2003," Bacus said. "This is a big development considering it's taken 13 years, a lot of education on the part of the US beef industry, not only on the safety but the quality of the product to really help address all those concerns that China has had."
Bacus says the beef industry has been working very closely with both the US and Chinese governments to make sure China understands exactly how safe our product is and why we should be able to export to their market. He says Chinese consumers want not just protein - they want beef, and he says it is a top priority for NCBA to make sure we are able to compete for that market share.
"As soon as we are able to get a foot in the door and are able to compete," Bacus said, "we've got a product that will outcompete all the other markets that are there. So we're very excited about this development and we want to restore full access as soon as possible."
According to Bacus, the next step in opening China's market will be to iron out all the trade terms and protocols with China's food safety administration. He believes this process may be concluded within a matter of months, based on the timescales of negotiations between China and other countries they've reopened their markets to. In addition to all this, Bacus says China is an important foothold to have in the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, though focus, he says, also needs to be paid to opening access to all markets in this region through the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He encourages producers to stay engaged with their congressional leaders and push for a 'Yes' vote on TPP this fall.
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|U.S. House of Representatives Passes Water Resources and Development Act
The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 5303, the Water Resources and Development Act of 2016 (WRDA 2016), late Wednesday, by a vote of 399-25. The National Corn Growers Association thanks the House for making the bill a priority during the short September legislative session.
"Farmers and ranchers need to be able to get their products to market quickly and safely, and inland waterways are a critical part of that process for much of the country. The Water Resources Development Act helps maintain and modernize our inland waterways infrastructure and plays a vital role in moving corn to export markets," said NCGA First Vice President Wesley Spurlock, a farmer from Stratford, Texas.
A main focus of the WRDA 2016 bill is clearing the backlog of projects at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It also provides more than $10 billion in funding to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to develop, maintain and support the nation's port and waterways infrastructures.
"We would like to thank Congressman Bob Gibbs of Ohio, who chairs the House Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment, for his leadership and continued support for our inland waterways system," said Spurlock.
The next step for WRDA 2016 is a conference of the House and Senate bills, with a potential final bill ready to be signed by the President by the end of the year.
|This N That: Drought Hangs On, Mexican Millers Check Out Oklahoma and 4-H Foundation Issues Final Call to Golfers
The latest Drought Monitor is out- and shows we still have about the same amount of drought as the previous week- even though much of Oklahoma got some excellent September rains in recent days.
In fact, we actually saw the Moderate to Severe Drought Levels in the latest week creep higher- standing now at 19%- versus 13% a week ago- and all of it is east of I-35.
Our morning farm and ranch news
- as heard on great radio stations that are a part of the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network- featured a part of the conversation that we had yesterday afternoon with OSU Wheat Breeder Dr. Brett Carver
. We caught up with Brett as he made a presentation to the wheat millers representing Grupo Trimex- the largest flour miller in Mexico.
The group is being shown around the state by the Oklahoma Wheat Commission- and yesterday afternoon, Mike Schulte and Chris Kirby
of the Wheat Commission were having the team sample bread from a couple of the wheat varieties that have been developed by Dr. Carver and the OSU Wheat Improvement Team.
Good Stuff- we will be posting our full interview with Dr. Carver later today and also will be posting on our web our conversation with Chad Weigard
of US Wheat Associates, who was along with the team from Mexico. Weigard is based in Mexico and represents US Wheat farmers in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
I noticed on Facebook yesterday that Blayne Arthur and the Oklahoma 4-H Foundation has a couple of slots still available for the their annual Golf Tournament- Blayne writing "We still have room for a couple of teams at our 19th Annual Clover Classic. Come join us in Stillwater for a great day of golf and support our Oklahoma 4-H members!"Click here for our calendar item
on the Golf Tournament- which gives you a contact on registration.
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