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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, February 23, 2018
Day One of the USDA Ag Outlook Conference By the Numbers (and slides)
Lots of numbers to absorb from the USDA Ag Outlook Conference- Day One was yesterday and USDA Chief Economist Dr. Robert Johannson
pushed a lot of numbers during his presentation- click here for his complete set of slides
- but I thot we might share two or three of them with you here-
First- USDA has their guesses out for plantings for 2018- and they couldn't decide if corn or soybeans would be the big dawg this year:
As for the price outlook for the coming season:
Switching gears to the meat and milk side of agriculture- the Chief Economist predicts bigger production in 2018 versus 2017 in the cattle, hogs, poultry and dairy sectors- and unfortunately- lower prices:
Ahead of the Chief Economist was his boss- USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue- if you weren't there or if you did not go online and watch his address about the state of the Ag Economy and Industry in the US- we have the Youtube of it below- in fact- we have it starting as the Secretary begins if you hit play in the video box below:
|Sonny Perdue at 2018 USDA Ag Outlook Conference|
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|Now's a Good Time for Wheat Growers to Evaluate Their Production Strategies and Marketing Plans
In his segment this week with SUNUP host Lyndall Stout,
OSU's Dr. Kim Anderson
draws farmers' attention to the strength of the US dollar which he reports has declined since this past fall by almost 13 percent from 103 pts. to 89.5.
"What that does is makes US wheat cheaper on the world market, but it also makes Russia's wheat production cost more expensive relative to the rest of the world," he said. "To producers, that means wheat prices are still below the cost of production."
He says the world market will become increasingly more competitive as the dollar continues to weaken. With that in mind, Anderson suggests farmers not consider forward contracting their wheat as they look towards the 2018 harvest. Instead, he advises farmers to start making a marketing plan and decide now when they think they will sell - either at harvest or store their grain until the fall. Also, he recommends setting a price point that will trigger you to sell your wheat.
Anderson also recommends developing a Plan B in case you lose this year's crop. He says now is a good time to start evaluating your whole farm and how it is organized. He says start looking now at alternative crops that you could potentially plant for summer, and perhaps rethink your crop mix and your planting and production strategies.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now and see what else is on the lineup for this week's episode, by clicking or tapping here.
|Cull Market Weaker than Anticipated, Yet Small Uptick Gives Producers Short Window to Sell Higher
According to market watcher Jim Robb of the Livestock Market Information Center, several factors are currently at play which have driven cull cow prices lower.
"We've seen a cull cow market that's been weaker than anticipated," he said, pointing out that January prices were even more depressed than those seen the month before in December across the Southern Plains. "What we think has happened here is we have an increased number of beef cows coming to slaughter and that's been up year to date 12 percent year-over-year."
Robb says it is obvious that producers had intended to probably keep those cows a little longer this year on wheat pasture to add some more pounds before taking them to market. However, drought has choked the progress of wheat pasture and forages have become scarce and rather expensive - making producers' initial plans less attractive. Adding to this pressure, dairy cow slaughter is also up by about three percent due to low milk prices. Overall, cow slaughter is up year to date seven percent. Robb says that rate may slow down marginally over the next few weeks and perhaps give producers a limited opportunity to see slightly higher prices for the cows. But he says that increase is from a very low base. This uptick that is starting to form could be part of a seasonal pattern driven by strengthening fed cattle markets that help pull up that cull cow price. In the long-term, though, he says it is likely the cull cow slaughter rate will stay above a year ago.
"You probably have to put a sharp pencil to that, and especially given our forage supplies, looking at selling those animals early rather than later," Robb advised. "So, we're going to get an opportunity here in the next few weeks to see these cull cow prices maybe work a little bit higher, but again not much higher as we often do; due to the larger supplies coming into the marketing system."
Hear Robb and I discuss this situation in the marketplace on yesterday's Beef Buzz, which you can listen to by clicking here.
|Foreign Competitors Outspend U.S. 4 to 1 Promoting Their Ag Exports
A recent analysis by Informa Economics found that several US competitors spent close to $1 billion in public funds on agricultural export promotion in 2016, a 70 percent increase since 2011. During that time, U.S. public funding to help our agribusinesses export their products stayed flat at $234.5 million, actually declining by 12 percent adjusted for inflation.
Tom Sleight, CEO of U.S. Grains Council, said the US government is falling behind and failing to provide adequate support for agricultural producers, putting American family farmers at a great disadvantage when it comes to competing in growing export markets.
Only 30 percent of the total annual US investment in our market development programs for 2016 came from annual government funding, which has been stagnant at $200 million for MAP program since 2006 and at $34.5 million for FMD program since 2002.
"The federal investment has been very successful in boosting U.S. agricultural export volume and revenue at a rate that far exceeds its public expense, but we need more if we're going to grow and protect our market share from foreign competitors," said Mark Powers, president of the Northwest Horticultural Council and chairman of the Coalition to Promote U.S. Agricultural Exports.
Future export promotion funding scenarios suggest that if federal funding doubled and program participants also increased their contribution, after five years U.S. agricultural exports would increase by $22 billion, farm cash income would grow by $3.6 billion, and 84,600 new full and part-time jobs would be created.
Click here to read the full story for more details on this study, and review the executive summary as well.
Midwest Farm Shows is proud to produce the two best Farm Shows in the State of Oklahoma annually- the Tulsa Farm Show each December and the Oklahoma City Farm Show each April.
Now is the time to put on your 2018 calendar the date for the 2018 Oklahoma City Farm Show, coming April 19, 20 and 21, 2018. Contact Ron Bormaster at (507) 437-7969 for more details about how your business or organization can be a part of the 2018 Oklahoma City Farm Show!
Click here for more details about the 2018 Oklahoma City Farm Show- presented by Midwest Farm Shows.
|Farmer and Industry Leader Don Schieber Reports on Current Wheat Crop Conditions, Dry Weather
Don Schieber, a wheat farmer from northcentral Oklahoma and member of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission, attended the Wheat Quality Council meeting this week in Kansas City. Schieber updated us on the condition of the wheat crop local area and the dry weather farmers across the Plains have been battling.
"The wheat in our area is very small and it's dormant right now. So, it's not really using a whole lot of moisture," Schieber said. "We've got fairly decent subsoil moisture, but right on top it's pretty dry." Schieber added that this was before the moisture that has arrived this week across a lot of Oklahoma.
Most of the wheat around him went in the ground as no-till, which has allowed the sub-surface soil to retain a relatively fair amount of moisture compared to the top soil with the most exposure to the dry environmental conditions. Much of the crop, too, was late planted after a rather large soybean crop for Kay County, traditionally a wheat county. He reports local farmers produced 165,000 acres of soybeans this past year, and only 145,000 in wheat. He believes this trend may continue for the next few years at least until the wheat markets are able to work through the glut of wheat stocks currently being stored. Right now, however, for farmers who did plant wheat, Schieber says the focus is on quality not quantity. But many fear the dry conditions have hurt the crop's progress.
"We're seeing a lot of emergence," he reassured, but clarified. "Now, some of the early planted wheat was clean-tilled and didn't come up. I'm not sure that it will... now. The further west you go the worse it gets and there's probably a lot of wheat in those areas that aren't going to make it."
You can hear Schieber talk more about his crop at the Wheat Quality Council meeting, by clicking here.
|Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue Seeks Ideas to Help SNAP Participants Become More Independent
Yesterday, USDA announced that it is looking for innovative ideas to promote work and self-sufficiency among able-bodied adults participating in the department's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
"Long-term dependency has never been part of the American dream," said U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. "USDA's goal is to move individuals and families from SNAP back to the workforce as the best long-term solution to poverty."
Currently, federal law limits the amount of time an able-bodied adult without dependents can receive SNAP benefits to three months in a 36-month period, unless the individual is working and/or exempt from the time limit due to age, unfitness for work, or having a dependent child. The law also provides state agencies with flexibility to request a waiver of this time limit if unemployment is high or the area does not have a sufficient number of jobs to provide employment.
"The SNAP safety net must be there for those unable to work due to disability or another legitimate reason," Perdue said, claiming many states have abdicated their responsibility to move participants to self-sufficiency by taking advantage of the waiver system. "USDA policies must change if they contribute to a long-term failure for many SNAP participants and their families."
Starting today through April 9th, the public will be able to submit comments or ideas aimed at helping able-bodied SNAP participants find work and become self-sufficient. Click here to read more about Perdue's stance on SNAP and find out how you can submit your own comment or idea.
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|This N That- Deere Gets AG Data Thumbs Up, Apache Ready for Stock Cow Sale and Commodity Classic Coming Next Week
John Deere announced this week that it has received the American Farm Bureau Ag Data Transparent certification developed in 2014 by numerous ag industry stakeholders, which verifies to producers that a technology provider or product is in compliance with specific core principles for ag data ownership, consent and privacy. Essentially, it helps farmers and ranchers understand how their ag data is used when signing up with technology providers to use products or services where their data is collected.
Companies and products that comply with the ADT standards and are approved can use the Ag Data Transparent seal, which designates their compliance.
The Apache Livestock Market is ready for their next Special Stock Cow sale- starting at 12 noon tomorrow at the market.
For more details- call Bob Rodenberger at 405-641-8998 or Greg Griffeth at 918-306-1359.
Carson Horn will be heading west to Anaheim and the 2018 Commodity Classic over the weekend- and will be covering the events for us this coming week.
Commodity Classic features four major commodity groups coming together- including the National Association of Wheat Growers, the National Sorghum Producers, the National Corn Growers and the American Soybean Association.
There's a massive Trade Show and a lot more.
Be watching for our updates from Carson- and you can learn more about the 2018 renewal of this event by clicking or tapping here.
|Our thanks to Midwest Farms Shows, P & K Equipment, American Farmers & Ranchers, Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards, Oklahoma Farm Bureau, Stillwater Milling Company, National Livestock Credit Corporation, Oklahoma AgCredit, the Oklahoma Cattlemens Association and KIS Futures for their support of our daily Farm News Update. For your convenience, we have our sponsors' websites linked here- just click on their name to jump to their website- check their sites out and let these folks know you appreciate the support of this daily email, as their sponsorship helps us keep this arriving in your inbox on a regular basis- at NO Charge!
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