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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, March 30, 2018
|Cotton and Sorghum Acres Predicted Higher in Oklahoma- Hog Inventory Up as USDA Issues Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Pig Count
In Oklahoma, according to the 2018 Prospective Plantings Report - winter wheat remains king- but wheat acres continue their long slide downward- sitting here in 2018 at 4.3 million acres, off another 200,000 acres from the planted total in 2017 of 4.5 million acres. The 2018 planted number is four percent under that of a year ago. Our wheat acres make Oklahoma the fifth largest wheat growing state- behind Kansas, North Dakota, Montana and Texas.
The Second largest crop by acres for 2018 becomes cotton, up 16% from last year's 585,000 acres to an USDA estimate of 680,000 acres here this spring. With a good growing season in 2017- cotton gins are still running hard and fast to get last year's crop ginned ahead of planting the 2018 crop.
Sorghum is a crop on the rise, with Oklahoma producers upping acres by 27% this year over last- with 400,000 acres in the state to be dedicated to grain sorghum.
Corn has slipped in favor, down 40,000 acres or 11 percent from 2017 - to 310,000 acres this spring.
Total hay acres in Oklahoma are up this year versus 2017- at 3.1 million acres- four percent higher than a year ago. Oklahoma jumps to third place nationally in hay area- behind Texas and South Dakota.
USDA also released the Quarterly Hog and Pigs Report- and total hog inventory in Oklahoma moved slightly higher. As of March 1, 2018 - Oklahoma hog and pig inventory rests at 2.16 million head, up 3 percent higher than March 2017. The number of breeding hogs totaled 445 thousand head, unchanged from last year. The March 1 market hog inventory was up 4 percent from a year ago at 1.72 million head, 79 percent of the total hog and pig inventory.
The December 2017-February 2018 Oklahoma pig crop totaled 2.12 million head, 3 percent above last year. In addition, Oklahoma's sow herd ranks the sixth largest in the US- behind Iowa, North Carolina, Minnesota, Illinois and Missouri. The total hog inventory stands ninth in the US hog population count.
For more highlights or to get a glimpse at any of these three reports and where Oklahoma ranks among other states, click here.
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|USDA Issues Easter Basket of Reports- Lower than Expected Corn, Soy Acres; Hog Inventory Up 3%
A DTN recap of the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting reports shows the U.S. definitely has its share of soybeans, with a whole lot more on the way.
Quarterly soybean stocks rose to a record 2.11 billion bushels. That's 21 percent higher than March of 2017. Soybean acres also officially took the lead over corn acres in 2018's planting intentions. USDA estimates 89 million acres of soybeans will be planted in 2018, with corn right behind at 88 million acres. Both of those estimates are down from last year, by one percent for soybeans and two percent for corn.
USDA says the lower numbers are a consequence of a lot of grain stocks on hand, along with lower commodity prices. The estimate of 2.11 billion bushels of soybeans follows a disappointing marketing quarter for the crop.
Between December of 2017 and February of this year, only one percent of the total soybean stocks were moved, nine percent lower than the same time frame from the previous year. USDA estimates that corn stocks were at 8.9 billion bushels as of March 1, three percent higher than last year.
The report says farmers are projected to plant 47.3 million acres of wheat, three percent higher than a year ago but still the second-lowest acreage number since the early 1900's. Cotton producers are predicted to plant 13.5 million acres, up seven percent from last year and higher than most pre-report expectations.
for more details on the contents of these report, plus the National Hog and Pig Inventory report also released yesterday.
|Drought Parched Western Oklahoma get Early April Fool's from Mother Nature - Here's to Next Week
According to this week's Drought Monitor map, northwestern Oklahoma remains the area in the state hit the worst by drought. However, although significant rainfall has yet to occur in that region, we did see this past week for the first time since last fall spots of greater than an inch of precipitation.
Unfortunately, this moisture is not reflected in this week's Drought Monitor. Instead, any possible improvements that may be attributed to it will be factored into next week's.
As of this week, drought conditions have stayed mostly static with the exception of that area now in exceptional drought conditions which has nearly doubled from last week, now covering 14 percent of the state. The rest of the state is rated 59 percent in abnormally dry conditions, 47 percent under moderate drought, 42 percent in severe drought conditions and 34 percent as D3 or in extreme drought conditions.
Click or tap here to view the latest Drought Monitor, or to read this week's Mesonet Ticker newsletter.
|Some Powdery Mildew Found in Oklahoma, Reports Indicate Increased Presence of Wheat Rusts in Texas
Dr. Bob Hunger, Professor & Extension Wheat Pathologist at Oklahoma State University's Department of Entomology & Plant Pathology released a report on the findings of his latest scouting efforts for foliar diseases in wheat fields throughout Oklahoma this week. He shared the field reports of some of his colleagues as well, updating farmers on any potential disease threats on the horizon.
Hunger says that so far this year, he is still not seeing any foliar diseases around Stillwater, but reports are indicating that inoculum of the wheat rusts (stripe and leaf) have started to increase in Texas.
Based on these reports and the recent weather conditions in Oklahoma, Hunger expects stripe and leaf rust to begin to appear across Oklahoma where moisture was received over the last week. It likely has been too dry in western/northwestern Oklahoma and the panhandle to facilitate wheat rusts. Powdery mildew may begin to occur because powdery mildew does not require free moisture but rather just high humidity.
Indications have also been made that some winter grain mites and brown wheat mites are beginning to appear in fields near Geary and surrounding areas, with a few green bugs and cherry aphids, and cases of Powdery Mildew, as well.
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| Kim Anderson Says Markets Were Excited After the Release of USDA's Prospective Plantings Report
In Kim Anderson's opinion, this week's Prospective Plantings report turned out to be better than the market was expecting it to be with most crops seeing more acres planted than what was anticipated. Anderson will join host Dave Deeken this weekend on SUNUP to share his analysis of this report.
Wheat came in slightly higher than expected at a total of 32.7 and cotton slightly lower than trade's expectation at 13.5 million, up from last year's total of 12.6 million acres planted.
Anderson says that if weather and production is good, Oklahoma stands the chance to have a profitable cotton crop with the board showing a price of 70-77 cents, despite the sheer amount of farmers that turned to cotton this year. Anderson does admit, though, he fears that 77 cents will not hold for long but says it is worth the gamble.
He also says that this year's corn crop could affect the price of wheat. He is hoping that with corn acres down, the price of corn will increase - which in turn will cause wheat to be more affordable and thus be fed more in the feedyards and help move the glut of wheat stocks that continue to weigh on the market.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now and see what else is on the lineup for this week's episode by clicking here.
|As Worries Mount for Beef Industry Over Possible Tariff Retaliation, Gregg Doud Brings Balance to the Table
According to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association's lead lobbyist, Colin Woodall, recent talk of tariffs coming from the Trump Administration has many in agriculture, including beef producers, worried. Those concerned fear to what extent US ag export customers like China might retaliate. Woodall told me the biggest threat is the possible inciting of an international trade war - with ag caught in the middle.
"It's definitely a worry for us because history shows us anytime a country is hit with some sort of punitive tariff like we have done, there is always a retaliatory tariff that is put in its place against the other country and agriculture is typically on that list," Woodall said. "So far, US beef has not been on any of those lists, but that does not mean we couldn't end up on the list."
One consolation thankfully for the ag industry is that President Trump has decided to exempt South Korea from these tariffs. As events develop, though, Woodall says it will be a boon to the industry to have Chief Agriculture Negotiator Gregg Doud in place at the US Trade Representative's Office to help mediate any future tariff negotiations and potentially work out any bilateral deals with key markets like Japan.
"I think having Gregg Doud at the table is definitely going to be benefit and will make sure our voice is heard a little bit more," he said. "Even though we have butted heads a little bit with the President, we can say that overall we've worked well with him on trade. All we have to do is look back at what he did last June in reopening China. But, Gregg will be a big help for us."
Listen to Woodall and I discuss the beef industry's trade worries further, and other concerns regarding the progress of the 2018 Farm Bill, on yesterday's Beef Buzz - click here.
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|Ag Coalition Launches 'Fix Prop 65' Site in Effort to Halt California's Unsound Glyphosate Regulation
The Ag Defense Alliance, a national coalition of farmers and agriculture networks, yesterday launched a new website providing resources and information about its case against California's unjustified Prop 65 listing of glyphosate.
The Fix Prop 65 website provides research and background on the case, testimonials from farmers, information about glyphosate, how it is used, and what the scientific community has stated about this safe-for-use, environmental sustainable herbicide.
clicking or tapping here.
Last month, Judge William Shubb of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting California from implementing its "false and misleading" Prop 65 labeling requirement for glyphosate. The injunction was sought by the agriculture coalition and supported by eleven attorneys general across the U.S. The preliminary injunction halts California's labeling requirement until a final ruling on the matter is issued by the court.
Read more about this case and the plaintiffs, led by the National Association of Wheat Growers, and visit the new website, by
|A Question for Good Friday- How well do we do what we are told to do? (or- No Sitting Around the Campfire Singing Kum Ba Ya)
It's Good Friday- and this weekend- the most uniquely Christian holiday there is- Easter Sunday- is approaching. Perhaps you know the story of the first encounter that is told about by John of anyone with the risen Jesus- it's the conversation that He had with Mary.
Mary thought she was talking to the gardener as she was afraid someone had stolen the dead body of Jesus- she asked if he knew where the body had been taken- and then her eyes were opened when Jesus spoke simply her name- Mary.
Jesus told her not to cling to Him- but it was not about actually touching his resurrected body. Certainly later Jesus would ask Thomas to touch His hands and His side so that He could believe it was Jesus. Jesus was not preventing actual touch but was asking her not to stay there and cling to Him. She had a job to do before Jesus ascended to His Father.
She had to go and tell the disciples that she had seen the risen Lord. A woman became the first person to encounter the risen Lord and to share personally the good news of Jesus with others. The verbs tell the urgency of Jesus for Mary to share the news: don't cling, go, and tell. We too are tempted to keep the message to ourselves, but we have been given a similar commission as the one Mary received. We have to go and tell that we have had an encounter with the risen Jesus. Mary fulfilled her commission well, telling the disciples, I have seen the Lord! If you are a believer- how are you doing in following the marching orders we have been given in the "Great Commission"?
If you're like me- you probably need to practice the going and the telling a little more and spend a little less time sitting around the camp fire sharing variations of the story among ourselves.
It's something to think about for this Easter 2018- as we consider what the priorities of this life are to us.
My own priorities were confronted last night- when I got the call to come to the hospital- and to offer support for perhaps the best friend God has ever allowed me to have- pray for my friend Mike as I watched him watch his sweet wife take her final breaths early this morning- on this Good Friday.
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