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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
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for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
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Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
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|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, July 13, 2018
USDA Adds a Few Bushels to Harvest Totals in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in July Report
The July Crop Production Report by the National Ag Statistics Service shows the Oklahoma Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop three million bushels larger than the June report, with USDA finding an extra 200,000 acres harvested in the state- but offsetting that gain with a one bushel per acre reduction in yield- setting the 2018 harvest yield at just 25 bushels per acre with a total production of fifty five million bushels.
The 2017 Kansas Crop still has a few acres to harvest- but USDA also upped their production totals compared to the June report, showing Kansas with a 277.4 million bushel crop this season- up seven million bushels from the June forecast and still well under the 333.6 million bushel crop of 2017- 17% smaller than in 2017.
Texas also has seen improvement in its 2018 wheat crop from today's July report to the June estimate of one month ago. The July forecast for Texas wheat producers has a crop up 25% compared to a month ago- NASS calling the Texas wheat crop a fifty-four-million-bushel crop- based on 1.8 million acres and a yield per acre of thirty bushels per acre- an improvement of three bushels in the June report.
Nationally, Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.19 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 6 percent from 2017. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 24.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 29, 2018, but down 2 percent from last year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 657 million bushels, is up 1 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 303 million bushels, is down 4 percent from the June forecast. White Winter, at 232 million bushels, is up less than 1 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 21.1 million bushels are Hard White and 211 million bushels are Soft White.
The Department of Agriculture also upped its predictions for larger corn and soybean crops this year. Click here to review those numbers in the complete July Crop Production report as released by USDA on Thursday morning.
|Speaking of Harvest- Plains Grains Calls Kansas 95% Done- Oklahoma Sits at 99% Complete
On a weekly basis, Plains Grains continues to follow the Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Harvest northward- collecting samples from the grain sheds of the HRW belt- and producting updates on the quality of the crop. Plains Grains and Director Mark Hodges also offer a weekly harvest progress report- and the following is from the latest report released Thursday evening, July 12:
"The 2018 HRW wheat harvest continues to wind down in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and the southeastern ¼ of Colorado. Texas is now 94% complete, Oklahoma is 99% complete, Kansas is 95% complete and Colorado is 51% complete. Nebraska is now cutting wheat in the southern half of the state (34% complete) and just getting underway in the extreme western areas. Early reports out of Nebraska indicate test weights above 60 lbs/bu (78.9 kg/hl) and protein ranging from 9%-14%.
According to Plains Grains- samples collected to date show an average test weight of 60.3 pounds and protein at 12.8% for 2018.
Click or tap here for the latest harvest report in full.
It's great to have the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards as a sponsor for our daily email. The eight Commission firms at the Stockyards make up the exchange- and they are committed to work hard to get you top dollar when you consign your cattle with them. They will present your cattle to the buyers gathered each Monday or Tuesday at one of the largest stocker and feeder cattle auctions in the world.
Click here for a complete list of the Commission firms that make up the Livestock Exchange at the Oklahoma National Stockyards- still the best place to sell your cattle- and at the heart of Stockyards City, where you can go around the corner enjoy a great steak and shop for the very best in western wear.
|This Week on SUNUP - Kim Anderson Breaks Down the Numbers in this Month's WASDE Report
This week on SUNUP - OSU Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson joins host Lyndall Stout again, this time to discuss the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Thursday by the USDA. According to Anderson, little has been changed in this report from the previous one last month with the exception of soybean production, which was increased from 4.28 billion bushels up to 4.31 billion and ending stocks for beans came in larger than the previous 385 million bushels, up to 580 million and lowered the average annual projected soybean price down 75 cents to 0.092.
Switching gears to look at the current market situation, Anderson says Russia's record wheat crop harvested last year has allowed it to take advantage of its ample supplies and effectively steal some of the US's market share around the world. This has suppressed US wheat exports in 2018 and in turn caused wheat prices to turn nearly a dollar lower here in the seventh week of the 2018-19 marketing year.
Furthermore, while one would have suspected the price of wheat to go up with a crop this year half the size it normally is, Anderson says the protein levels are the best they have been in 20 years and has the test weight to back it up. With large lower quality supplies of wheat still in the bin, Anderson says elevators are opting to blend the two crops to increase the total supply's marketability - essentially adding more viably sellable grain on the market. Therefor creating a negative influence on prices.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now and see what else is on the lineup for this week's episode, by clicking here.
Flash Drought Threatens Oklahoma's Recovering Parched Communities Along State's Borders
While the Drought Monitor map this week has improved from last week, the threat of flash drought has crept up on Oklahomans residing along the south, southeast, northeast edges of the state and the western Panhandle region. Rainfall totals in the past 30 days in these areas have been nearly 200 percent or greater than normal, which has significantly improved conditions there. However, forecasts in the days ahead call for extremely dry and hot weather. State Climatologist Gary McManus says this will facilitate rapid drought development in these "hotspots," which may degrade the progress made in recent weeks.
This week's map shows the complete elimination of the worst category, Exceptional Drought, and a bump in the neutral "None" category from 23 percent up to 26 percent. The most significant change noted this week includes a 3-point fall in Moderate Drought from 54 to 51 percent and in Abnormally Dry conditions from 76 to 73 percent. Severe and Extreme Drought conditions remain relatively unchanged at 26 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
For a closer look at this week's Drought Monitor or to review this week's edition of the Mesonet Ticker newsletter, click here.
It's Not Renegotiating Trade Terms That's Scary - It's Duking It Out with So Many Countries at Once
The tough rhetoric on trade coming from President Trump and his White House Administration has created a lot of angst in the US economy as, including the cattle industry, as many of our key trading partners continue to push back. The rising tensions between nations has given way to much uncertainty in the global marketplace with the breakdown of existing market access agreements and the reciprocal threats of increased tariffs, especially in China's case. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association says if the most recent round of Chinese tariffs levied on US beef products holds, the cattle industry could be faced with a $70 million loss in 2018. While that is not an insignificant amount, it is not a death blow to the industry either. The value of beef exports in May alone totaled $722 million around the world. That is an important point to keep in mind says Extension Economist Dr. Glynn Tonsor, who contends having a diverse export portfolio can help mitigate things when issues such as these arise. Luckily, he says the US does in fact enjoy access to many markets worldwide. He explained the importance of this strategy in a recent interview, using Japan as an example.
"Twenty-five years ago, half of the beef volume shipped out of the US went to Japan. The US benefited by good trade with Japan, but it was very reliant on Japan from an export perspective," he said. "Now, that number is less than one-fourth. It's still a very important market but we're less reliant on that one country than we used to be. That eases concerns, because if you lose access or get worse terms in one country - you have the ability to shift some product to another country if you have a foothold there doing business."
However, while the US is set up well to handle such a problem, the situation we find ourselves in today is a bit more complicated due to the fact that we are contesting the trading agreements with several of our major markets.
"One concern that I do have is we have ongoing discussions with several of our major importing countries that kind of all came at the same time," he said. "I wouldn't be as concerned about it if it was just one country, but when you have it going on in several countries, it's actually quite amazing to me that we've had as positive a trade reporting story in 2018 as we've had."
Listen to Tonsor's full analysis of the current export market situation and what concerns he has, on yesterday's Beef Buzz - click here.
We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update. On both the state and national levels, full-time staff members serve as a "watchdog" for family agriculture producers, mutual insurance company members and life company members.
Click here to go to their AFR website to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!
Senate Vote in Support of More Congressional Oversight of Tariffs Prompts Farmers' Quick Response
Yesterday, the US Senate voted (88-11) overwhelmingly in favor of imposing increased congressional oversight of tariffs levied in the name of national security.This has been a tactic used by President Trump recently in his campaign to create more quality in the world marketplace. This has drawn significant backlash from the ag community and other industries affected by the retaliation of our other trading partners, like China for example.
Following the Senate's vote, the pro-trade organization Farmers for Free Trade released a statement from its Executive Director Brian Kuehl who applauded the Senate for asserting its constitutional authority on trade.
"This vote is an important step toward allowing farmers and ranchers to have a greater voice in these decisions that so dramatically affect their farms, their families, and their communities," Kueh; said. "We hope Congress and the Administration reflect on this overwhelming show of support and put a stop to these taxes on the American people."
Click here to read the full statement from Farmers for Free Trade.
CAB Expert Suggests Reliable Traceability System Could Boost Value Through the Beef Supply Chain
Talk about a national beef traceability system in the U.S. might seem like a broken record. It's been discussed often, but no efficient structure yet encompasses the entire supply chain.
Advances in technology and evolved consumer buying trends might breathe new life into the idea.
As more beef sells under branded programs, consumers expect a promise with each purchase, from cooking performance to flavor and guarantees about how the meat was produced. Brands may be forced to verify additional marketing claims to maintain consumer trust.
According to the National Meat Case Audit 2015, nearly all beef at retail sells under a brand name, jumping from 51% branded in 2010 to 97% in 2015. With a sea of brands now vying for attention in the meat case, consumers buy their beef based on brand loyalty and label guarantees.
Mark McCully, vice president of production for the Certified Angus Beef ® (CAB®) brand, says a traceability system could have merit.
"Traceability itself is not a marketing claim," he says. "However, I do believe it can be used in the future as a framework for identifying marketing claims that add value to beef products."
Continue reading this article from Certified Angus Beef for more of McCully's thoughts on a traceability program in the US beef industry, by clicking over to our website.
ICYMI - Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association Prepares for 66th Annual Convention & Trade Show Next Friday and Saturday
As a friendly reminder, don't forget that coming up this next weekend, Friday and Saturday July 20-21, the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association is bringing its 66th Annual Convention and Trade Show back to Norman, Okla. this year.
The focus of this year's program is all about the business side of the cattle business. The event kicks off Friday featuring five Cattlemen's College sessions covering an array of business oriented subjects presented by industry experts. In addition to a variety of association business meetings that you're sure to want to take part in - the OCA is also proud to host Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial candidates Mick Cornett and Kevin Stitt. Yours truly will moderate the special forum on Saturday afternoon, during which time the two candidates will be able to address the important issues facing Oklahomans currently and what they would do to mitigate them as Oklahoma's next Governor. Plus, you won't want to miss this year's trade show that is bigger and better than ever.
Come and join in all the fun, fellowship and important educational opportunities at the 66th Annual OCA Convention and Trade Show at the Embassy Suites in Norman. Registration is open - so click here to find more information on this year's programs, the full event schedule or how to register. We'll see you there!
|Japan to FINALLY Allow US Lamb and Goat Products to Enter Their Country
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue is announcing that the government of Japan has finalized technical requirements that will allow U.S. sheep and goat exports into the country for the first time in more than 14 years.
"This success is a direct result of USDA's dedication to helping America's farmers and ranchers keep and find new markets for their products," Secretary Perdue said. "The United States has a reputation for high quality agricultural products and this Administration is committed to helping U.S. producers prosper and share these products with the world."
"Japan was a primary market for U.S. lamb before losing access, so obviously our lamb producers and the lamb industry are very excited about this opportunity to again export our quality products to an upscale market," said U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Chair Dennis Stiffler, president of the Texas division of Halperns' Purveyors of Steak and Seafood and former chief executive officer of Mountain States Rosen, a livestock producer-owned processor and distributor of lamb and veal products. "The Japanese have proven in the past that they are very receptive to the unique flavor of U.S. lamb, and 95 percent of all lamb raised in the U.S. is grain-fed. It's a very succulent protein that will stand up well to competitors' products in the Japanese market. U.S. lamb has been well-received in other upscale markets, including Taiwan which reopened to U.S. lamb in 2016. But Japan presents an exceptional opportunity for significant export growth."
Read more from USMEF on this word that came late afternoon on Thursday by clicking or tapping here- this is a bright spot on the international scene where so many storm clouds have been hiding the sun in recent days.
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