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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
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for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
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Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Thursday, August 23, 2018
Frank Lucas Optimistic Congress Can Deliver Final Farm Bill to President's Desk Before Sept Deadline
Senate Ag Chairman Pat Roberts announced yesterday that the date for conference committee that will negotiate the final version of the Farm Bill has been set for September 5th, one day after members of Congress return to DC from the Labor Day Recess. Before this announcement earlier this week, though, Oklahoma's Third District Congressman Frank Lucas hosted a series of town hall meetings this week(and all during August) to meet with constituents and talk about developing policy issues that might impact them, including the Farm Bill.
He spoke with yours truly about how preliminary talks have progressed between House and Senate staffs working out some of the more minor differences of the different bills on the table. Lucas told me that most of those differences should be resolved by the time House and Senate leaders come together in conference to hash out the larger issues at hand. If those negotiations are expedited, Lucas says he feels fairly confident that Congress could deliver a final version of the Farm Bill to the President's desk before the existing bill expires at the end of September.
"It's possible... but, here's the issue," Lucas clarified. "On the last day of September, the old Farm Bill begins to unwind. It doesn't all completely come to a stop on October 1, but is begins to unwind. So, the quicker we can address the issue before then, the better off we'll be."
Lucas implies that having five years of certainty on the books is significantly more preferable in his mind rather than seeking a one-year extension to the current Farm Bill and continuing to kick the can down the road on finalizing a new bill. While the larger issues at hand that are left to discuss are quite contentious ones, Lucas says both sides are fighting for reasons based on "pragmatic principles."
Click here to read more about this story or listen to my complete conversation with Congressman Lucas as we dig deeper into the current status of the Farm Bill's progress.
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Speculations Form as Market Awaits Release of On Feed Report, Expectations Hinge on Marketings
The number of cattle in our feedlots continue to grow. Experts are expecting to see that trend continue in USDA's next Cattle on Feed report due for release this coming Friday afternoon, along with larger placement and marketing numbers compared to a year ago. Extension Livestock Market Economist Lee Schulz of Iowa State University says he believes the marketing number will be the most important data point to come out of this report."If there's any real surprises in this report, I think it's going to be that marketing number, because supplies are building right now," he said. "So, if that does or doesn't stay relatively high - we're likely to see this as a very bearish report. I'm looking at that marketing number as an indication of how current we are in this market. That's going to be a real barometer of what's going to affect this market for the next six weeks or so."As Schulz implies, one of the keys to feedlots' success in 2017 and what is being observed to some degree here in 2018, is their ability to stay current. This will be especially important for feeders here in the latter days of this year as they deal with larger market-ready or soon to be market-ready supplies. Schulz says whatever this next report reveals, probably won't change that fact. Other analysts, though, are focusing on other factors. Allendale's Rich Nelson, for example, says placements in this report could potentially show as much as an 8.7 percent year-over-year increase. If realized, that would be the largest July placement number in six years and mark three months in a row that placements have ticked higher, despite concerns over profitability.According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for their pre-report expectations, the average guess is that this report will show cattle on feed for August 1 is 4.4 percent bigger than one year ago at just over 11 million head. Analysts guess placements in July will increase by 5.9 percent and marketings are estimated to rise by 5 percent year-over-year. USDA will release the report this Friday, August 24th at 2:00 p.m. Central Standard Time.Listen to Schulz share his predictions for the upcoming USDA Cattle on Feed Report for Aug. 1, on yesterday's Beef Buzz - click here.
|Pro Farmer Crop Tour Offers Illinois and Western Iowa Numbers as Final Day of Tour Underway Today
The third day of the 2018 Pro Farmer Crop Tour is in the books- we have a final Illinois number- and Crop Scouts have also offered up from Western Iowa thoughts as well.
First- that Illinois Corn and Soybean Forecast- Karen Braun with Reuters has been our "go to" source this week via Twitter and she offers these numbers: " Average #corn yield 192.63 bu/acre, up 6.6% over last year's tour. USDA's yield is up 3% on the year. #Soybean pods in a 3x3' plot averaged 1328.91, up 8% over last year's tour. USDA's estimate is up 10%" It should be noted that USDA's estimates are normally bigger for the full state of Illinois versus what the Crop Scouts will normally forecast-
Todd Gleason with WILL Radio in Illinois provides an updated graphic that we shared with you yesterday that now includes his state of Illinois:
One note on Illinois- Crop Scout Peter Meijer tweeted out that the corn in Illinois is as mature as he has seen since 2012 on a Crop Tour- and he indicated many farmers in Illinois on his tour route told him flatly that the crop here in 2018 is not as good of a crop as the one in 2017. He calls that "telling" as far as whether or not Illinois can top the bushels per acre number of 2017.
As for the western leg- Karen Braun offers these corn numbers from Western Iowa- "#Corn Results, Western Iowa: Northwest, District 1: 186.87 bu/acre, up 4.6% from last year's tour West Central, District 4: 186.77 bu/acre, up 4.1% from last year's tour Southwest, District 7: 179.82 bu/acre, down 3.1%."
Crop Scouts are finishing up the tour today and will meet tonight in Rochester, Minnesota- and will offer their guess on the overall size of the Iowa Crops- and Minnesota to boot.
I am following the tour on Twitter- the hashtag is #PFTour18.
The Oklahoma FFA Foundation has awarded more than $50,000 to Oklahoma FFA chapters through the STEM After School grants sponsored by Public Service Company of Oklahoma and FFA Technology & Innovation grants sponsored by Devon Energy.
Holly Blakey, executive director of the Oklahoma FFA Foundation said in a statement that this is the first time the Foundation has provided grants to local programs and is excited to work with Oklahoma businesses to expose students to the various scientific and technological careers that exist today.
These grants were provided to encourage students to work on agriscience projects after the regular school day in effort to keep students engaged during what can be a difficult time of day for many.
Chapters receiving these grants include: Calvin FFA, Allen FFA, Vinita FFA, Kiefer FFA, Sperry FFA, Tipton FFA, Rush Springs FFA, Ketchum FFA, Harrah FFA, Stillwater FFA, Central High FFA, Hennessey FFA and Guthrie FFA.
Midwest Farm Shows is proud to produce the two best Farm Shows in the State of Oklahoma annually- the Tulsa Farm Show each December and the Oklahoma City Farm Show each April.
They would like to thank all of you who participated in their 2018 Oklahoma City Farm Show.
Up next will be the Tulsa Farm Show in December 2018- the dates are December 6th, 7th and 8th. Now is the ideal time to contact the Midwest Farm Show Office at 507-437-7969 and book space at the 2018 Tulsa Farm Show. To learn more about the Tulsa Farm Show, click here.
This week's episode of our new ongoing conversation,
Checking In on the Beef Checkoff, features our recent visit with Clay Burtrum, member of the National Beef Checkoff Operating Committee, who visited with us about the Checkoff's role in educating consumers about beef safety.
"Through the Checkoff, we've also helped to ensure that important knowledge about how to keep beef safe is shared across the industry," Burtrum said. "Improvements with E. coli, salmonella and other pathogens prove it," he remarked. "However, we still have emerging pathogens that need our attention. It's important that our Beef Checkoff program continues to invest and reinvest in the research that can identify and control them."
Each year, the Checkoff hosts leaders from the public and private sector at the annual Beef Safety Summit to talk frankly about how the industry can reinforce beef safety standards for consumers. Through the Checkoff's continued investments in research and education, Burtram says the industry and its consumers have benefited significantly from the resulting advancements in beef safety.
For more stories about what your Beef Checkoff is doing or to listen to Burtrum and I speak about the Checkoff's role in beef safety, click here.
Industrial hemp, medical marijuana, a new farm bill, property taxes and international trade were among the critical issues discussed during a series of area meetings held across Oklahoma Aug. 7-20. The meetings were sponsored by AFR/OFU and enjoyed large crowds with several state legislators in attendance.
"It was really impressive how interested our members are and how they want to be engaged in the political process," said Steve Thompson, AFR director of government relations, noting that people seemed to have more concerns this year about federal issues than in previous years.
On the state level, though, Thompson said Oklahomans are asking questions about medical marijuana and its cousin, industrial hemp. He explains that many are confused right now about what exactly is legal and what isn't, in regard to medical marijuana and industrial hemp.
Overall, Thompson said the rural residents are upbeat about most issues and have adopted a fair amount of optimism and positive attitudes about the current condition of the ag industry.
|Oklahoma Conservation Commission Hosts Soil Health Field Day in Grady County Friday, August 31st
The Grady County Conservation District, in conjunction with the Oklahoma Conservation Commission and USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service, is hosting a Soil Health Field Day on Friday August 31st, 2018. The workshop will be held at Oscar Nelson's headquarters just outside of Chickasha. The workshop is free to the public.
Registration begins at 8:30 AM. The Field Day should conclude around noon. Topics to be discussed include cover crops and incorporating grazing management. Attendees will also have the opportunity to see the rainfall simulator. Speakers for the event include Oklahoma Conservation Commission Soil Scientist Greg Scott, Oklahoma Conservation Commission Soil Health Educator Blane Stacy, and local farmers Oscar Nelson and Paul Brown.
The OCC insists the event will be a great opportunity for area farmers and ranchers to network and offers the public a chance to visit a local farm and see how and where some of their food is grown.
For more information about the event's agenda or how to register, click here.
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