~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Friday August 6, 2010A service of Producers Cooperative Oil Mill, Midwest Farm Shows and Big Iron OnLine Auctions!
-- Overnight Wheat Trade Blows Through Eight Bucks- Then Backs Off
-- As Russia Burns Up- We Have Plenty of HRW Wheat Around Here
-- The Blanche Lincoln Disaster Aid Reelection Package Remains in Limbo
-- For Oklahoma- Disaster Aid Would be a $106 Million Payoff!
-- New York Senator Wants 2012 Farm Bill Changes (and cash for her farmers)
-- Better Calf Prices Would Likely Entice Cow Calf Producers to Consider Herd Expansion
-- Coming up this weekend
-- Let's Check the Markets!
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are proud to welcome Big Iron Unreserved Online Auctions as our newest sponsor of the daily Email. Their next auction is Wednesday, August 11 - featuring Low Hour, Farmer Owned Equipment. Click here for their website to learn more about their Online Farm Equipment Auctions.
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Overnight Wheat Trade Blows Through Eight Bucks- Then Backs Off
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Wheat futures in Kansas City and Chicago have continued to put on quite a show since yesterday as Russia's Prime Minister Putin announced that he was imposing a ban on grain exports from his country starting August 15 through the end of the calendar year. That kept the fires burning in the wheat market during the day yesterday, as we saw Kansas City September settle on Thursday at $7.80 a bushel- up 53 cents. The nearby Chicago contract settled 60 cents higher- limit up for the day.
In the early part of the overnight trade- wheat prices continued to forge higher, running out of steam at $8.22 a bushel, basis the KC September contract- as we write this around 6 AM this Friday morning- it stands at $7.82- up a couple of pennies. Most of the gains have been in the current months based on existing supplies- as the July new crop contract gained just two cents on Thursday at $7.48 a bushel in KC.
Besides the news of the Putin move in Russia- other rumors from that region emphasize they are in bad shape for this crop year-There was new talk this afternoon of the Ukraine defaulting on wheat shipments to Asian customers and a possible export ban in Kazakhstan. In addition to the Russian export ban, the USDA released a healthy export sales number of 854,000 metric tonnes sold last week. In addition, 110,000 metric tonnes of U.S. wheat was sold to an unknown source.
Cash wheat prices have responded to rising futures- and now are above $6.00 a bushel in most locations across Oklahoma- click here for the regular cash wheat report from the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture.
As Russia Burns Up- We Have Plenty of HRW Wheat Around Here
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~There was discussion at the Oklahoma Wheat Review yesterday in Stillwater about wheat stocks and if they are beginning to move with this latest news from Russia. The word we got is that we have plenty of HRW wheat in storage- unfortunately a lot of it is wheat with protein under 12% and that makes it harder to sell into the global market- at least at where we see US wheat being priced at.
As for farmer selling to this point- we heard two tales- one is that many farmers sold everything at harvest and are now angry that the market is soaring higher, after all the talk at harvest was the burdensome global stocks and the "fact" that wheat prices would never dig their way out of the glut we were facing. We also were facing low protein counts at harvest, subterminal points in Oklahoma that were geared up to ship to the Gulf and no Gulf buyers wanting wheat if the protein level was not above 12%- they didn't want it at ANY price. That's why cash wheat prices had a two in front of them for a few days in southwest Oklahoma back early in the harvest season.
The other side of the farmer selling story is that while farmers sold
some at harvest to pay bills- they held on to the rest and have been
selling into the rally- Johnston Grain officials estimated that about 70%
or a little more of their customers' grain from the 2010 harvest has been
merchandised to this point with more likely to be sold if producers see
this market peaking.
The Blanche Lincoln Disaster Aid Reelection Package Remains in Limbo
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The White House has promised Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln that they can move money around and come up with $1.5 billion in disaster aid that will include 210 million dollars for Arkansas farmers- money that could arrive just days ahead of the November general elections. Lincoln barely survived the Democratic primary in the Razorback state- and faces an uphill climb in this election cycle where being a Democrat on the ballot on election day may be bad for your political health.
The catch right now is that the Obama Administration has not figured
out how to move the money around and what programs will take a hit to get
Lincoln the money she wants to hand out. The Senator told Agri-Pulse last
week that "In exchange for pulling ag disaster from the small business
bill, I have secured an agreement from both Majority Leader Reid and White
House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and have their commitment to deliver
critical agriculture disaster assistance administratively in the next two
Arkansas farmers would get the most cash in this Disaster Aid package, according to estimates that have been made by the Environmental Working Group, who have published the data on their website. Arkansas would get over $210 million, followed by Illinois with over $170 million and Texas with $146 million. Oklahoma farmers also do VERY WELL- as our state is in line for a $106 million dollar pay day if the money is found and delivered.
For Oklahoma- Disaster Aid Would be a $106 Million Payoff!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Based on the EWG website, Oklahoma farmers and ranchers would be receiving $106 million dollars in Disaster Aid under the Lincoln- White House Disaster Aid plan. Oklahoma is ranked the fifth largest state in terms of dollars that could come from the Lincoln plan. Fourteen Oklahoma counties could see payments over $3 million each coming in.
Those counties include:
All told, 74 of the 77 Oklahoma counties have money that could be coming in from this Disaster Aid package that may forthcoming- as promised by Senator Lincoln to farmers and as promised to Lincoln by White House Chief of Staff Emanuel- all outside of the normal legislative process.
New York Senator Wants 2012 Farm Bill Changes (and cash for her farmers)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~While there will be fewer dollars for the 2012 farm bill than the 2008 law(except for nutrition programs), lawmakers in states outside of the major commodity belt want a piece of the action. Senator Kristen Gillibrand of New York wants Congress to consider a progressive and meaningful approach to agricultural policy when it develops the 2012 Farm Bill. Gillibrand - a member of the Senate Ag Committee - is promoting a move away from cotton and rice subsidies and direct payments to what she calls more rewarding safety net programs that emphasize conservation, local food production and marketing and easier access to credit for cash-strapped dairy farmers.
Gillibrand's approach is not likely to set well with Ag Committee leadership. Ag Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Ranking Member Saxby Chambliss of Georgia represent southern crops such as cotton, rice and peanuts. But Gillibrand admits these things take time and says that's why she wants to start this debate now.
Gillibrand's five areas of improvements are providing greater access to capital through USDA loan programs; ddressing the dairy crisis by overhauling the milk pricing system; expanding the Market Access Program and securing more funding to promote USDA's Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program; targeting assistance to specialty crop farmers via current conservation programs - as well a new program Gillibrand plans to introduce called the Conservation on Muck Soils program; and she wants to invest in new sources of clean, renewable energy.
Better Calf Prices Would Likely Entice Cow Calf Producers to Consider Herd Expansion
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Randy Blach with Cattlefax talks with us from the Summer Cattle Conference last week in Denver about the Mama Cow herd and our beef cattle producers that are a part of that segment of our beef chain.
Pricewise- Blach says we need higher calf prices to really shore up the financial balance sheet for our cow-calf operations. With higher prices, that should entice many of our producers to look at increasing the number of cows they run, even as they look to upgrade genetics along the way. In recent years, cow numbers have trended lower nationally- and the lack of strong positive returns, as well as the uincertainty of the macro economic picture has keep the cow calf segment on the defensive. Blach believes better calf prices would turn attitudes about expansion around in beef cattle country.
Click on the link below to jump over to our Beef Buzz with Randy Blach as we zero in on the cow-calf end of the business with the top hired hand of Cattlefax.
Coming up this weekend
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~This Saturday morning on our In the Field segment- we will be talking about Oklahoma's Ag in the Classroom program- still alive and well. Dana Bessinger from the Oklahoma Department of Ag will join us- our In the Field segment airs at 6:40 AM on KWTV News9 during their Saturday AM two hour news bloc.
Also this weekend- I was asked to join Orion and Max for their weekly show, This Week in Agribusiness that is seen on the RFD channel. We talk about the wheat price situation with them in a four minute segment during the show. This Week in Agribusiness airs at 7 AM central time on RFD- and then repeats a couple of times on Sunday- check your listings.
Finally, the next two weeks- SUNUP has been preempted on OETA during their August Fest campaign. SUNUP returns to OETA on August 21st. By the way, we are sad that Clinton Griffiths has vamoosed and left Oklahoma- he did a great job on SUNUP- but we are excited that he will be on air with AgDay in the days ahead. He will be missed.
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Let's Check the Markets!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~We've had requests to include Canola prices for your convenience here- and we will be doing so on a regular basis. Current cash price for Canola is $8.35 per bushel- as of the close of trade on Thursday, while the 2011 New Crop contracts for Canola are now available are $8.40 per bushel- delivered to local participating elevators that are working with PCOM.
Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click
on the name of the report to go to that link:
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