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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
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Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
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|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Friday, February 1, 2019
Bigger Beef, Pork and Poultry Supplies in 2019 Could Mean Cattle Price Pressure
Cattlefax analysts, along with weather legend Dr. Art Douglas offered expert market and weather analysis during the popular 2019 CattleFax Outlook Seminar on Thursday, held in conjunction with the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show in New Orleans. During this presentation, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good reported that he expects prices to remain strong, with demand and the economy expected to remain solid also - although some price risk will remain over the next few years as it responds to the last five years of expansion. By Good's count, the beef cowherd expansion cycle will conclude within 1-2 years.
Good also predicts that cattle producers, on average, will receive a smaller percentage of the retail beef dollar as larger cattle supplies increase price pressure across all segments of the industry. At the same time though, robust domestic demand, higher wages and job growth will counteract some of that pressure and continue to support prices.
Good concurs with the general consensus held by leading economists that 2020 will potentially usher in an economic slowdown. This may slow the benefits of recently strong consumer incomes and spending, which may lead to limited profitability throughout the beef supply chain.
"The relatively strong calf market we saw in 2018 will be under pressure this year," said Good. "However, values in the spring should have the potential to reach the mid-$180s. On the other hand, a larger calf crop and softer demand have the potential to erode prices to the $140-level next fall, so there is certainly more price risk in feeder cattle and calves than in the fed cattle markets in 2019."
After the presentation, we had the chance to talk with Good about his industry outlook and more - you can hear that conversation and read more highlights offered by other CattleFax analysts that presented yesterday, by clicking here.
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The wheat-producing area of eastern Europe often referred to as the "Black Sea Region," consists most notably of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. We got a sneak peak of this weekend's episode of SUNUP during which Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson visits with host Dave Deken about the region's recent cornering of the global wheat market.
To put into perspective just how quickly the region was able to assert its dominance in the market, consider the fact that in 2000, total world wheat exports amounted to 4.17 billion bushels. This year, world wheat exports are projected to increase by 2.5 billion bushels up to 6.66 billion bushels total. According to Anderson, the Black Sea Region accounts for 88 percent of that growth. Russia alone, exported only 19 million bushels of wheat in 2000 and this year will export 1.34 billion bushels.
So, how did these countries manage to accomplish this? Anderson explains that it was a concerted effort to improve their infrastructure and production practices and invest in better equipment and technology. Anderson says this has helped to nearly triple the region's export capacity as well as the industry's overall efficiency.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now and see what else is on the lineup for this weekend's episode, by clicking or tapping here.
Cattle Industry Convention Attracts 10,000 to New Orleans- Ron Hays Talks Issues with NCBA President Kevin Kester
According to National Cattlemen's Beef Association President Kevin Kester, nearly 10,000 cattlemen and cattlewomen traveled this year to New Orleans for the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show, which featured a 6.5-acre trade show and a wide range of engaging events including live cattle handling demonstrations and the popular Cattlemen's College series and more.
Kester and I had the chance to talk about some of the issues being considered by cattle producers and his year as NCBA President and the tasks he will leave behind for his successor to see through. Some of those main priority issues include, fake meat, trade and market access, securing beef in the government's updated Dietary Guidelines and regulatory reform and implementation.
The past two years have brought about significant regulatory relief for beef producers, but much work remains to be done on additional relief and implementing recent reforms from enacting a permanent solution to overly restrictive Hours of Service rules for livestock haulers to finalizing a new water rule to replace the 2015 Waters of the U.S. rule and beyond. However, one particularly concerning objective that NCBA has undertaken just recently, is its engagement in a new legal battle with a law firm with ties back to the HSUS - which has entered into a lawsuit with the FSA attempting to prevent the agency's recent action to expand its CAFO service to feedlots with 1000+ head. Kester says the NCBA has joined this fight as an intervener to help protect the FSA from this legal attack.
The Convention will wrap up Saturday morning with a meeting of the NCBA's Board of Directors, where official public policy positions will be set for the coming year. You can click here to listen to Kester and I discuss further his time at the helm and the issues that NCBA will focus on during 2019.
National Corn Grower Board Member Gary Porter Says What's Good for the Cattle Industry is Good for Corn Farmers
National Corn Growers Association board member Gary Porter - a producer from northern Missouri, attended the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention this year to show his appreciation to cattle producers who he says generate tremendous value back to corn farmers like himself. According to him, over one billion bushels of corn is consumed by beef cattle in the US. Coupled with the industry's consumption of DDGS, the US beef industry is the No. 1 customer for corn. US red meat exports alone, says Porter, adds 39 cents in value back to corn farmers.
Given the current economic conditions in the ag industry, Porter says this relationship is extremely important to maintain. Not just for marketing reasons either. Porter says corn and cattle producers often find themselves in agreement on many issues, politically speaking. Through their relationship, the two industries have worked together to accomplish many great achievements - the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill is an example of one of their more recent collaborations.
In addition, Porter shared too that NCGA has stepped up to sponsor NCBA's Cattlemen's Education Series - a continuing education program for NCBA members to make them better producers. Porter explained that foster better producers means more cattle and therefore, more corn sales. Essentially, he says, what's good for the beef industry is good for the corn farmer.
Listen to Porter talk about the symbiotic relationship between the corn and cattle industry by clicking here.
It's great to have one of the premiere businesses in the cattle business partner with us in helping bring you our daily Farm and Ranch News Email- National Livestock Credit Corporation. National Livestock has been around since 1932- and they have worked with livestock producers to help them secure credit and to buy or sell cattle through the National Livestock Commission Company.
They also own and operate the Southern Oklahoma Livestock Market in Ada, Superior Livestock, which continues to operate independently and have a major stake in OKC West in El Reno. To learn more about how these folks can help you succeed in the cattle business, click here for their website or call the Oklahoma City office at 1-800-310-0220.
Fighting the Good Fight - NCBA's Colin Woodall Says Beef Industry Has "Fake Meat" Labs on the Run
Cell-based meat, or 'fake meat' as it has come to be known, is an issue that first appeared in the cattle industry one year ago during the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention. At this year's convention, the issue is still being discussed, though this time in regard to the progress that has been made by the staff at the National Cattlemen's Beef Association in getting the issue stamped out. Colin Woodall, senior lobbyist for NCBA, took a moment to speak with us about the accomplishments that have been made thus far.
"There are very few issues we have the luxury on where not only the members understand what we're doing, but also the general consumer kind of has an idea of what's going on. Basically, the overall yuck factor of fake meat is definitely something that's helped us move forward with our ask - for USDA to have a role in the daily inspection of this product... but more importantly, for USDA to approve the labels."
By doing this, NCBA can be assured that these companies producing the cultured protein products can not use certain terms that either mimic or cause detriment to conventionally produced beef. Woodall reports that this has been successfully achieved by NCBA. In fact, he adds that some states have even started to consider limiting these companies' ability to use terms like "meat" and "beef." That, says Woodall, is a good thing for producers.
"That's going to be the next fight on the federal side - what can they actually call it, because we have to protect our terms," he said. "We do not want to find ourselves in the same situation that the dairy industry has been dealing with."
Listen to Woodall's full update on the status of the fight against "fake meat" with Hays, on today's Beef Buzz - click here.
GOP Announce Ranking Members for House Ag Committee Subcommittees
Yesterday, House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Mike Conaway of Texas announced the subcommittee Ranking Members for the 116th Congress, remarking on the "instrumental role" these leaders will play in promoting and protecting policies important to farm and ranch families.
Ranking Members and assignments for the 116th Congress are as follows:
Rep. Austin Scott (GA-8) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy and Credit.
Rep. David Rouzer (NC-7) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Livestock and Foreign Agriculture.
Rep. Dusty Johnson (SD-AL) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Nutrition, Oversight and Department Operations.
Rep. Glenn 'GT' Thompson (PA-15) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management.
Rep. Neal Dunn (FL-2) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Biotechnology, Horticulture and Research.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (CA-1) will serve as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Conservation and Forestry.
This Weekend - Roger Mills County Cattlemen's Bull Sale & Messner Ranch Production Sale
If you're in the market for some quality cattle, then coming up this weekend, you won't want to miss out on the Roger Mills County Cattlemen's Association Annual Bull Sale or Messner Ranch Production Sale.
The Roger Mills County Cattlemen's Association's 41st Annual All Breed Bull Sale will happen tomorrow, Saturday, February 2nd at 12:15 p.m. at the Cheyenne Ag Pavilion. This year's sale features 60 Breeding Age Bulls, Registered and Commercial Angus, Black Hereford, Charolais, Composite, Hereford,Simmental, Simi-Angus, Shorthorn Cross and Red Angus. For More Information, click over to our Calendar Page.
The host of Oklahoma's oldest annual production sale, Messner Ranch, will kick things off on Saturday as well at the Ranch located just 6 miles south and 11 west of Laverne at 12:30 p.m.
The sale features 150 service age Hereford and Angus bulls and 75 bred Angus and Hereford heifers - Plus, enjoy free delivery on $5000 or more up to 300 miles. For More Information, click over to our Calendar Page.
|FINAL FULL DAY- Cattlemen to Hear from Secretary Sonny- and We Have the Make Good List From USDA!!!
It's been a full and busy week at the Cattle Industry Convention here in New Orleans- Carson Horn and I hope you have enjoyed our reports from the Big Easy- and we will have multiple stories to share with you in the days ahead when we get back home as well.
Cattle producers are excited about the prospect of seeing and hearing from the US Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue. The Secretary will be addressing the convention at the closing General Session mid morning- and then, according to his USDA released schedule- will be touring and getting an update on the operation of the Port of New Orleans- perhaps the most important port for US agriculture in the country.
The Trade Show continues today- and we should hear this morning if the attendance level for the Convention and the Trade Show is officially above 10,000 or not- which would be a record large crowd for a Cattle Industry Convention- their meeting in Nashville two years ago had just over 9,500 attendees.
Our thanks to Corteva Agriscience for sponsoring our reports all week long- Learn more about their efforts to provide great weed solutions for pasture and range by clicking here.
BY THE WAY- we do now have info from USDA on the full schedule of make ups for the reports missed during the Partial Government Shutdown- we had been wondering about the Cattle Inventory Report that was missed yesterday- January 31st- USDA now will try to release it on February 28th- that of course depends on whether the government stays open past February 15th.
In the list- available here- it also shows that they will not miss the January Cattle on Feed Report- but instead plan to release the January report on February 22nd- and the February report that was supposed to be out that day will instead by released on March 8th.
|Our thanks to Midwest Farms Shows, P & K Equipment, Oklahoma Farm Bureau, Stillwater Milling Company, National Livestock Credit Corporation, Oklahoma Beef Council, Oklahoma AgCredit, Herb's Herb Hemp Farm, the Oklahoma Cattlemens Association and KIS Futures for their support of our daily Farm News Update. For your convenience, we have our sponsors' websites linked here- just click on their name to jump to their website- check their sites out and let these folks know you appreciate the support of this daily email, as their sponsorship helps us keep this arriving in your inbox on a regular basis- at NO Charge!
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