Howdy Neighbors!

The U.S. agricultural economy is experiencing one of its most challenging periods in history, marked by a brutal three-year decline in crop cash receipts and escalating political tension surrounding federal aid. This was the consensus of experts at the Ag Outlook Forum, who discussed the current tight margins, the impact of recent legislation, and the difficult policy levers being considered by Washington.

The Depth of the Economic Crisis: John Newton (Executive Head of Terrain) highlighted the severity of the financial decline, stating that crop cash receipts are the lowest seen since 2007 and represent the “largest three-year decline that we’ve ever seen in history.”

Working Capital Burn: Crop cash receipts are “down $71 billion from three years ago.” Newton shared that large, successful farmers are “just burning through working capital.” The Input Cost Squeeze: The current margin crisis is compounded by elevated input costs that began rising in 2021. Newton noted that without this “inflationary pressure,” current crop prices “would be above break even for a lot of folks.” Wider Than Soybeans: While most attention is on the soybean market, Newton stressed that the crisis is affecting the entire farm economy, citing major challenges in cotton, tree nuts, and the wine industry, where wine exports are down 96% due to tariffs impacting trade with Canada.

While Oklahomans enjoyed a deceptive, cool start to autumn, the state now faces an escalating drought threat. State Climatologist Gary McManus warned that the official October outlook favors conditions—above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation—that are prime for drought expansion.



“We definitely don’t want to see drought flourish in October, but that’s what the outlooks are saying,” McManus noted, pointing out that the forecast is heavily influenced by the dry, warm pattern expected through the first two weeks of the month.

The silver lining, McManus suggests, may be approaching slowly. “We do see a hint of a possible pattern change for next week… maybe some rain,” he said, before adding his trademark humor about persistent forecasting delays: “At this rate, we’ll finally get that big cold front sometime around Halloween!”

Senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays continues his conversation from yesterday with Ethan Lane of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, who emphasized that while the cattle industry supports revitalization efforts, they are not looking for direct government payments. “We tend to not seek those kinds of market support payments,” Lane explained, stressing that misinformation online about payments to producers was unfounded. “Secretary never said anything about this.

No one else said anything about this. And the internet decided to invent it for themselves, and the secretary wanted to clarify there. We appreciated those comments and her commitment to the free market and ensuring that those market signals are functioning the way they should be in the beef supply chain.”

Lane highlighted Secretary Rollins’ focus on increasing access to federal grazing lands, which could especially benefit younger ranchers trying to enter the industry. “There is a ton of federal grazing land in what we call vacant allotment status,” Lane said.

He explained that barriers often keep producers from utilizing this land, but breaking those down would provide valuable opportunities. “A lot of times, some of these younger producers that have a hard time getting the financing and the capital required to get started but they have seen some opportunity there, if you could break down some of the walls around accessing those vacant allotments.” Another key point Lane touched on was the expansion of risk mitigation tools for cattle producers. He noted that while livestock producers have traditionally used a very small portion of crop insurance, programs like Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) are becoming more important. 

At 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, October 1st, the United States government has officially shut down. Two weeks ago, House Republicans passed a clean short-term continuing resolution to keep the government open and allow the House and Senate to finish the appropriations process. The House Appropriations Committee has passed all twelve appropriations bills out of committee.

Only one Democrat voted for it, even though this continuing resolution mirrors the same extensions that the vast majority of Democrats previously voted to support 13 times. House Republicans, Senate Republicans, and the White House are united in support of a clean, short-term CR to keep the government open. Government shutdowns cost the taxpayers millions and have negative impacts on the economy. This is especially detrimental to thousands of Oklahomans who work or contract with the federal government. During a shutdown, our service members, TSA agents, CBP officers, and countless others could go unpaid.

U.S. Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) released the following statement:

“This Schumer Shutdown was completely avoidable,” said Senator Mullin. “Instead of doing the right thing and supporting a bipartisan effort to keep the government open, Chuck Schumer put his lifelong political career ahead of the tens of thousands of federal employees in Oklahoma. “A shutdown halts normal government operations and limits federal agency activity to only essential services,” said Mullin. “Oklahomans should know that my offices will remain open and fully operational through the Schumer Shutdown. We are here to help. While many federal agencies release guidance for shutdowns, my team is available to answer any questions.”

Tens of thousands of FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters from across the country are planning to gather in Indianapolis for the 98th National FFA Convention & Expo. This celebration of agricultural education and leadership will take place from October 29 to November 1, with events occurring at the Indiana Convention Center, Lucas Oil Stadium, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Indiana State Fairgrounds, local hotels, and numerous off-site locations throughout the state. 

“This year’s convention is more than just an event; it’s a celebration of our members’ dedication and a launchpad for the next generation of leaders,” said Christine White, chief program officer of the National FFA Organization. “It’s a time where we honor the hard work of today and ignite the spark of inspiration for tomorrow, empowering a community that will shape the future of agriculture and innovation for years to come.” 

The 98th National Convention & Expo officially kicks off Wednesday, Oct. 29, when the Expo Hall opens at 8 a.m. and concludes on Saturday afternoon, Nov. 1, with the election of the new National FFA Officer Team. For those unable to attend in person, FFA Live! Will provide full streaming coverage. Student hosts and reporters will bring audiences closer to the action with live coverage of key moments, interviews with award winners, and conversations with special guests. Visit convention.ffa.org for more information.

Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist Paul Beck says The beef industry is often described in segments—calves start on the ranch, many go through a stocker or backgrounding phase, and then enter the feedlot. But what happens early in a calf’s life doesn’t just stay there. Health, nutrition, and management decisions made before weaning or during grazing ripple forward, shaping feedlot performance, carcass quality, and ultimately consumer demand.

A recent Applied Animal Science Special Issue highlighted how pre-weaning and stocker management affect cattle performance later in the feeding phase and at harvest. Here are a few key takeaways.

Health Matters Most. Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is still one of the costliest health challenges. Calves treated for BRD during receiving gained less on pasture, entered the feedlot lighter, and finished with lower carcass weights. They didn’t “catch up” later, showing the value of preventing sickness.

The American Farm Bureau Federation announced the opening of general registration today for the 2026 American Farm Bureau Convention. The convention will be held Jan. 9-14, 2026, in Anaheim, California.

The theme of the 107th consecutive American Farm Bureau Convention is “Imagine. Grow. Lead.” It will empower attendees with forward-thinking perspectives and policy insights to navigate the future of agriculture.

Tim Tebow — two-time national champion, Heisman Trophy winner, College Football Hall of Fame inductee, first-round NFL draft pick and former professional baseball player — will address attendees as closing general session keynote speaker on Monday, Jan. 12.

Registration is open for Oklahoma State University Extension’s annual Winter Crops School. This year’s event will be held Dec. 16-17 at OSU’s Agricultural Hall. Space is limited to the first 160 registered individuals. 

Early registration is already open and costs $175 per person. After Dec. 1, registration fees increase to $225. No refunds will be given after Dec. 1, but substitutions are allowed if attendees are unable to attend. The event will offer 14 continuing education units for certified crop advisors and two for Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry applicators. The first talk begins at 10 a.m. on Dec. 16 and continues through the afternoon of Dec. 17. 

There will be breaks and lunch provided both days. From 8:30-9:30 a.m. on Dec. 16, tours of the Soil, Water and Forage Analytical Lab and Plant Disease and Insect Diagnostic Lab are offered. They are limited to the first 30 people who sign up. The certified crop advisor exam preparation course will be held Dec. 15 from noon to 5 p.m. with lunch provided. Accommodations are available at the Atheron Hotel on OSU’s campus. Full refunds will be given if the conference is canceled. 

Checking the Markets...

Superior Livestock will be holding their regular every other week video auction at 8 AM this mornig- 19,376 to be offered. Click here for the details about the sale that can be seen on the Superior YouTube Channel and via Superior Click to bid.Com.

On Wednesday, boxed beef cutouts moved lower as Choice slipped $2.56 to $368.47 and Select eased $0.36 to $346.89, narrowing the spread to $21.58 compared to $23.78 on Tuesday, with 151 loads reported versus 122 the prior day.

OKC West sold 7,435 head on Tuesday & Wednesday of this week- Prices were sharply lower- Manager Bill Barnhart writes "More volatility in the market this week. The calf prices Tuesday were generally 10-20 lower from last week’s sharply higher sales except for the very highest quality or long weaned calves which sold about steady. Farmers are busy planting wheat and most are not ready for unweaned calves. Likewise, feeder cattle Wednesday sold lower also compared to last week’s runaway market."

OKC West is our Market Links Sponsor- they sell cattle three days a week- Cows on Mondays, Stockers on Tuesday and Feeders on Wednesday- Call 405-262-8800 to learn more.

Click here for our Markets Page on OklahomaFarmReport.Com- there you will find many of the reports we have linked on the right hand column found on the previous format of our email.

Our daily email is free because of our Sponsors!

© 2025 Oklahoma Farm Report - All rights reserved