Howdy Neighbors!

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment changed little in September as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading of 126 was just one point higher than a month earlier. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future.

Producers’ perceptions of current conditions on their farms weakened as the Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122. At the same time, farmers in September were a bit more optimistic about the future than in August, as the Index of Future Expectations rose 5 points to 128. This month’s survey was conducted the week following USDA’s release of the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.

The USDA reports confirmed expectations for record-high corn and soybean yields and, correspondingly, weak prices for both crops, which contributed to farmers’ weaker perceptions of current conditions. Expectations for the future were buttressed by producers’ perception that U.S. policy is “headed in the right direction” and by rising expectations that a program similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP) will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The September barometer survey took place from September 15-19, 2025.

Senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays features comments with Dr. Derrell Peel, livestock market economist, who says the cattle market has recently taken “a bit of a pause.” Speaking on the K-State Radio Network, Peel explained, “Cattle markets have kind of taken a little bit of a pause here lately. Broadly speaking, we’ve seen a little bit of pullback. I think this is just the market kind of taking a breath in many cases.”

On the boxed beef side, Peel noted that prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks after record highs earlier this year. “We’ve seen a fairly dramatic decline in box beef prices in the past few weeks,” he said. “Now that’s from record levels, and so they’re still pretty high, but I think a lot of eyes are on it because we’ve seen a fairly persistent decline here lately.” Peel believes the shift is not due to collapsing demand but a seasonal transition from summer grilling cuts to products geared toward holiday demand, such as “rib eyes or rib rolls for holiday products.”

Turning to conditions at the ranch level, Peel described the usual fall culling season and noted that some producers in Oklahoma and other regions sold calves earlier than normal. “Seasonally, we normally see a lot more culling in the fall,” he said. “We have noticed that some producers sold calves early… and that could be followed by early culling.” While there has been “some pressure on those cull cow prices,” Peel said it has been “pretty minimal up to this point.”

Oklahoma’s cotton harvest is rapidly approaching, with many fields already showing open bolls across the state. In a recent update, OSU Cotton Extension Specialist Jenny Dudak shared with Farm Director KC Sheperd that producer excitement is high, largely due to ample heat units that have helped push the crop to maturity.

Dudak, traveling through Southwest Oklahoma, confirmed that the harvest timeline is imminent. “Yes, ma’am, we sure are,” Dudak said of the impending harvest. “I have seen many open cotton fields getting ready to harvest, so it’s an exciting time of year.”

A major factor in the crop’s successful late-season progression has been the consistent heat. While some parts of the state started the season with variable conditions, the recent warmth is crucial for finalizing the top crop. “Those heat units will definitely help us finish out some of that top crop and maybe boost our yields a little bit,” Dudak noted. Harvest is expected to begin quickly in the southern regions. 

Dudak also reminds producers of the Schantz Family Field Day coming up Near Hydro on Thursday.

Hale says it’s been “a pretty good run this week with about 5,500 head compared to 4,700 a year ago.” He notes the market was “overall better,” explaining that “feeders are holding steady” while “heifers are a little higher in some spots and lower in others.”

Hale says the calf trade continues to surprise him, adding that “unweaned calves were higher again this week.” He attributes part of the strength to weather and timing: “Some of those guys are trailing off planting wheat, and there’s still not a big number of lighter calves moving anywhere.” He says that many producers are choosing to sell calves now rather than “investing dollars back into preconditioning,” because “even though it’s not quite as high as a month ago, it’s still pretty good, and there’s still a lot of demand.”

When asked about what he’s hearing from customers, Hale says, “It’s really the same conversations every year — whether to wean them or not.” Some ranchers still have “some green grass,” and Hale has been “urging them to go ahead and move them while there isn’t as many moving to get a better price,” warning that “when it freezes and that grass is gone, there could be two or three weeks of some big runs.”

Mark Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist says The chart above shows the trend of steer carcass weights over the past several years. The cattle feeding industry has maximized the number of days on feed in order to produce the tonnage of beef needed to meet consumer demand during a time of decreasing national cow herd inventory. According to seasonal norms, carcass weights are expected to increase through the end of the year and could top out at around 980 pounds.

There are currently no market signals to indicate beef carcass weights will go down. Even long-term, pending increased heifer retention and a larger national cow inventory, market signals indicate more days on feed and heavier carcass weights will be the new normal. One of the most dramatic and interesting market signals is the proportion of higher USDA Quality Grade carcasses currently in the weekly harvest mix relative to robust consumer demand for consistently great tasting, higher quality beef.

For example, 20 years ago, the average harvest mix for the year 2005 was 36.5% Quality Grade Select and 55.8% Choice and Prime. Of those higher quality carcasses in the Choice and Prime grades, only 15.3% were in the upper two-thirds of Choice or Prime, with only 1 – 2% grading Prime. In 2005, the biggest determinant of carcass value was the Choice/Select spread.

As we roll through fall, spring-born calves will be weaned and many of those heifer calves will be held for replacement purposes. At the same time, a large number of bred heifers will hit the market and be available for the same purpose. It is not uncommon for someone to comment on how expensive bred heifers are and assume that they can develop their own heifers for much less.

While this is true in some cases, I also think it is easy to underestimate some of those costs. The purpose of this article is to briefly highlight three things that are crucial to consider when a cow-calf operator tries to make this comparison. And I would argue these are even more significant given the strength of the current cattle market.

The opportunity cost is the biggest cost. I hope this one is obvious, but the largest cost of developing a heifer is the opportunity cost of that heifer at weaning. High quality weaned heifers, in the 500-600 lb range, are bringing $2,000 and higher across most US markets. Whatever those heifer calves are worth in the marketplace is the first cost of heifer development. By not selling that heifer calf, one is forgoing that income. This cost is huge right now due to the strength of the calf market and higher interest rates, which makes forgoing that income even more significant.

Oklahoma State Treasurer Todd Russ announced Oklahoma’s September tax revenue totaled $1.5 billion, an increase of 17.8% over August and 0.4% higher than September 2024. Over the past 12 months, total receipts reached $16.95 billion, virtually unchanged from the prior year but steady amid national headwinds.

“This month’s report shows encouraging momentum with revenues rebounding nearly 18% from August and posting year-over-year growth,” said Treasurer Russ. “Strong income and energy tax revenue continue to anchor Oklahoma’s economy, even as sales activity softens. With steady employment and a balanced fiscal approach, our state remains well-positioned to navigate national uncertainty.”

Key Takeaways from the September 2025 Tax Revenue Report: Income Tax: $651.5 million — up 21.2% month-over-month and 8.4% year-over-year. Gross Production Tax (oil & gas): $89.7 million — up 4.5% from August and 5.0% year-over-year. Motor Vehicle Tax: $75.1 million — up 5.2% month-over-month but slightly down 1.3% year-over-year. Sales & Use Tax: $556.2 million — down 6.5% from August and 6.1% from September 2024, signaling softening consumer activity.

Each October, approximately one-fifth of CLO agricultural lease lands are appraised and offered at public auction for farming, grazing, and recreational use. Revenue generated from these auctions supports Oklahoma schools, contributing over 88 million dollars in the past five years.

Tracts which go unleased at public auction are offered on a first come, first served basis through the end of the year. Remaining unleased tracts are offered through a sealed bid auction the following year.

Wednesday October 8th's auction will take place in Enid Oklahoma at the Garfield County Fairgrounds. The auction will begin at 10 am and will feature leases from Alfalfa, Blaine, Garfield, Grant, Kay, and Kingfisher Counties.

Checking the Markets...

Boxed beef prices advanced for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, October 7, 2025. The Choice cutout climbed $2.63 to $365.97, while Select gained $0.91 to $348.88, widening the Choice/Select spread to $17.09. Load counts also picked up, with 181 total loads, up from 143 on Monday — indicating stronger packer movement and buyer interest.

The OKC West Stocker and Calf run on Tuesday had 2,553 cattle sold. Compared to last week: Steer calves 4.00-10.00 lower except 500-600lbs 20.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Quality mostly plain. It’s October, and much like the changing weather, cattle prices have become inconsistent as buyers grow more cautious due to calf health concerns. 

Beaver County Stockyards sold a total of 5,388 on Tuesday- Compared to last sale: Feeder steers 10.00-20.00 higher. Feeder heifers 5.00-8.00 higher. Steer calves 2.00-8.00 higher. Heifer calves remained steady. Unweaned calves with one round or no shots were softer today for all classes as buyers have started to become more cautious with the fluctuating fall temperatures and concerns for calf health.

OKC West is our Market Links Sponsor- they sell cattle three days a week- Cows on Mondays, Stockers on Tuesday and Feeders on Wednesday- Call 405-262-8800 to learn more.

Click here for our Markets Page on OklahomaFarmReport.Com- there you will find many of the reports we have linked on the right hand column found on the previous format of our email.

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