Howdy Neighbors!

Its time for the friday farm funny!! Farming and ranching can be stressful so enjoy a little laugh.

Speaking from the Rural Economic Outlook Conference, Oklahoma State University (OSU) Vice President and Dean of the Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Dr. Jayson Lusk, delivered an optimistic update on the state of the university in an interview with Farm Director KC Sheperd of the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network.

The conversation began on a high note, with Dr. Lusk confirming that OSU is experiencing record enrollment across the university, including the College of Agriculture. “We’re excited that we have students who want to come and study with us and invest their time,” Lusk told Sheperd, even as he acknowledged the students are currently deep into “feverishly studying for their midterms.”

The discussion quickly moved to a priority issue: the wheat breeding program. Dr. Lusk reiterated the program’s vital economic importance, “For every dollar that gets invested in our wheat program, there’s a $3 return that accrues to our agricultural producers,” Lusk stressed, making the case for continued investment. Lusk then provided an update on the building initiative: the current facilities date back to the 1940s and are showing their age.

Despite the temporary suspension of full U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports due to the government shutdown, market analysts have continued to gauge the grain markets, confirming a prevailing concern: large grain supplies are currently in storage.



Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale’s Rich Nelson to break down the trade’s expectations for key commodities and discuss the missing data points crucial for farmers.

• Wheat: The trade’s view on wheat stocks is rising, increasing from 844 million bushels to 875 million bushels. This increase is due to the small grain summary finding 58 million bushels more production than previously estimated. This adds to the overall theme of rising grain stocks across the board.
• Unlike corn, the soybean market did not experience a significant surprise from the quarterly grain stocks report. As with corn, analysts do not expect substantial yield changes in the October report.
• The corn market’s outlook remains largely mechanical, with stocks expected to rise due to past reporting surprises.

Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays finishes up a conversation with Darrell Peel, Extension livestock market economist at Oklahoma State University. Dr. Peel believes that the ongoing closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican cattle due to the persistent threat of the New World screwworm is not just a temporary trade disruption, but could permanently reshape global beef markets. Dr. Peel expresses concern that Mexico, unable to export its cattle north, may further develop its own processing and export capabilities, ultimately establishing itself as a direct competitor to U.S. beef supplies worldwide.

The border closure, initiated to prevent the re-establishment of the devastating screwworm fly in the U.S., shows no signs of immediate resolution. Secretary Rollins recently reported another case of the screwworm 170 miles from the border, indicating that cattle moving through southern Mexico are breaching existing protocols.

“We continue to see indications that cattle moving from southern Mexico up into the northern parts of Mexico are getting through the protocols, if you will. They’re finding additional cases,” Peel stated. He predicts that the border is unlikely to reopen for the remainder of 2025, with potential long-term, if not permanent, implications for the long-standing bilateral trade relationship between the U.S. and Mexico.

US Senator James Lankford (R-OK) took to the Senate floor yesterday to call out Democrats for prolonging the government shutdown, now in its eighth day, and urged the Senate to pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the government.

“We’re seven days deep into a government shutdown. What a ridiculous waste of time. What a painful, ridiculous waste of time for the nation. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is,” said Lankford. “Because I’ve been here long enough now to be able to see what the negotiations look like. Let me tell you what it has looked like for the last few years, even. Let’s go back just through the Biden administration – every single end of September, as we approached the deadline for government funding, this body had a conversation: Do we want to remain open and continue negotiating, or do we want to shut down?

“Every single time during the Biden administration, this body said it’s harmful to the American people and to federal workers to have a shutdown. Let’s keep things open and continue to be able to negotiate. So the end of every September, which is the end of our fiscal year, this body voted to keep the government open and to continue to negotiate.

Farm Bureau veteran Dr. John Newton returns to the American Farm Bureau Federation team on October 20, 2025, to serve as Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis. In this role, he will lead AFBF’s government relations and advocacy staff and serve as chief economist, guiding AFBF’s team of economists.

Dr. Newton previously served as AFBF’s chief economist from 2018 to 2021. He returns to AFBF after serving as the chief economist for the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry from 2021 until 2024, and most recently serving as part of the Farm Credit system as the executive head of Terrain.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, “I very much look forward to welcoming John back to the Farm Bureau family. He was a fantastic chief economist for us and has demonstrated his impressive leadership skills in several roles since and throughout his 20 years in agriculture. He’s passionate about serving farmers and ranchers, and I know he’ll put that passion to work in this new role.”

The weakening fed cattle price trend, in place throughout September, showed no directional change last week as the market traded $2 to $3/cwt. lower.

A significant trend shift, first reported here two weeks ago, focuses on the tremendous change from the northern feeding region’s $10/cwt. premium over the southern region. This has inverted to give southern feedlots a $3/cwt. premium over the north in last week’s ending values. There is a degree of seasonality attributed to a fall turnaround in this regional price structure, coupled with more adequate fed cattle supplies currently in the north.

Downward price pressure to fed cattle values can largely be attributed to carcass cutout values that have rapidly eroded since the beginning of September. It is seasonally appropriate for boxed beef prices to cheapen during September although fed cattle prices have increased an average of 6% during the month in the past three years. In latest estimates, the relationship between fed cattle and wholesale cutout values has pushed spot market packer margins near losses of $200 per head.

The United States had long been the world’s leading cotton exporter, with 87% of cotton production, on average, destined for export markets over the past decade (2016 – 2025). In 2016, U.S. cotton exports captured 39% of the global market, but this share has steadily declined since the onset of trade disputes with China. By 2023, the U.S. share in the global cotton market had fallen to 26%, its lowest point in over a decade. Although it rebounded slightly to 28% in 2024 and 2025, U.S. cotton has faced rising competitive pressures, particularly from Brazil.  

Brazil’s ability to double-crop cotton with other crops has driven substantial growth in its cotton production and exports. Consequently, Brazil has rapidly expanded its role in the global cotton market, surpassing U.S. cotton export volumes by 2023 and becoming the world’s leading cotton exporter. This shift is closely tied to China’s strategic diversification away from U.S. cotton, with Chinese investment in Brazilian infrastructure improving logistics, port access, and overall competitiveness. 

Cotton prices received by producers across countries vary only slightly, with Brazilian cotton producers typically receiving marginally lower prices than their U.S. counterparts. Although Brazilian cotton producers face higher seasonal costs per acre for fungicides and insecticides due to the tropical climate, these expenses are more than offset by advantages in land, labor, and machinery costs.

Checking the Markets...

On Thursday, October 9, 2025, the Choice boxed beef cutout closed at $365.22, down $0.94 from the previous day, while the Select cutout dropped $0.91 to $344.33. The Choice/Select spread held nearly steady at $20.89 on 137 loads. 

At the Woodward Livestock Market- they had an estimated 2,100 head on Thursday- Compared to last week: Feeder steers 5.00 to 15.00 higher. Feeder heifers 5.00 to 10.00 higher. Steer calves 5.00 to 10.00 higher with instances 20.00 higher. Heifer calves steady. 

According to the USDA Cash Grains Report- Hard Red Winter Wheat at Oklahoma elevators was down 3 1/2 cents a bushel on Thursday- best price in the state was at Shattuck with a bid of $4.29 3/4.

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