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For Sentinel, Oklahoma cotton farmer Jimmy Rhoades, the start of the 2025 harvest is bringing a welcome dose of optimism after a challenging previous season. An initial field test this week has him hopeful for a significantly better crop.

“I took my stripper, I loaded it up to Dill City yesterday and made one round,” Rhoades said. “And that one round made me very happy.” That single pass yielded three round bales, which Rhoades estimates could translate to an impressive two-and-a-quarter to two-and-a-half bales per acre for his dryland cotton. “That’s very good,” he noted. The projection is a stark contrast to the previous year’s results. “Last year I made two-thirds to three-quarters of a bale an acre,” Rhoades explained. “This year it’s almost three to four times the amount of cotton as we made last year.”

The promising yield comes after a season that required patience. Late August rains, while welcome, delayed the crop’s maturity. “We got a lot of rain in late August… which made us put on a lot of top crop,” Rhoades said. “So we’re a little bit behind getting started on cotton harvest because we made a lot of late bolls and a lot of green leaves.”

Senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with OSU Extension livestock market economist Dr. Derrell Peel, who says that while some U.S. cattle producers dislike the idea of importing beef, imports play a necessary role in meeting consumer demand. “Beef is lots of different things,” he explained. “Once we fabricate those animals, it produces thousands of different products,” and the mix of what’s produced doesn’t always match what consumers prefer. Imports, he said, “help support and actually utilize the fatty trimmings that we get off our fed cattle in order to turn all of that into ground beef and support the enormous appetite we have in the U.S. for hamburgers.”

Dr. Peel noted President Trump’s recent comments about importing Argentine Beef to lower Consumer beef prices. He said imports have “increased significantly in the last couple of years,” largely because of “the dramatic decreases we’ve had in cow slaughter and bull slaughter in the U.S.,” which are the main domestic sources of lean beef. Bringing in lean beef from abroad helps “maintain that part of our beef market in the U.S.” Dr. Peel did a deep dive on the Trump comments Monday in his weekly Cow Calf Corner analysis- click here to read his answer to the question, Could beef imports from Argentina reduce beef prices in the U.S.?

When it comes to lean beef imports, Peel identified Australia and Brazil as the two dominant suppliers. “Australia has been in sort of recovery mode they’ve increased significantly in the last couple of years,” he said, returning to historical levels after a production downturn. Meanwhile, “Brazil has increased because they do have access for fresh beef exports to the U.S.,” though that trade has come “with some restrictions.”

Hale noted that the markets opened slightly lower during the week, especially for feeder cattle. “We had 6,800 head compared to 8,600, and Thursday at Woodward, it was pretty much a runaway,” he said. However, things shifted after Trump’s comments on beef imports, which caused the market to go “down the limit ” on Friday.” Despite the decline, Hale said he was “really pleased” noting that strong demand remains for quality feeder steers and calves.

Hale emphasized that quality continues to drive prices, saying, “If the quality is right, the prices are right.” He pointed out that the market isn’t seeing an overwhelming number of feeder cattle, especially on the front end, which has helped keep optimism alive. “They called it a little higher on the steer calves weaned,” he explained, suggesting that strong demand for lighter-weight cattle is supporting the market. Even amid short-term volatility, he believes many see the downturn as “kind of a knee-jerk deal.”

Turning to weather and pasture conditions, Hale said producers are hopeful for rainfall to improve wheat pasture and support calf performance. “I wish western Oklahoma would get more, because that would sure help,” he said. Hale mentioned that he personally has “over 1,000 acres- if we just get a half inch or an inch on it.” He believes that with some moisture and stable futures prices, “we’ll probably see a big difference in these calves,” and that the market “could get better on these calves” if wheat pasture conditions improve.

A recent announcement from President Donald Trump stating he is working to bring down high beef prices has sent shockwaves through the cattle industry, sparking disbelief, market turmoil, and sharp criticism from producers who feel blindsided by the government’s interference.

The market’s reaction was immediate and severe, but the initial response was confusion for many producers. Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Jennifer Carrico, DTN Senior Livestock Editor, and a beef producer about the current situation. “At first I thought, “Did he really say that?” said Carrico. I think that was what most of us thought.”

The comments were a jarring escalation from vaguer statements by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins made weeks earlier about “incentives” to rebuild the national cattle herd. Carrico noted that when Rollins later clarified that this would not involve “any government funding,” producers were left “still kind of baffled” about the plan.

After a lunch meeting with President Trump, Senator James Lankford reaffirmed his call to reopen the federal government, now entering its third week of closure.

“There is one central thing that we’ve repeated over and over again,” Lankford said. “We want to get this government back open again.”

He noted that in past funding standoffs, Congress managed to keep operations running while talks continued. “Thirteen times in a row, we’ve reached a moment like this, and each time said, let’s keep the government open while we continue to be able to negotiate,” he explained. “Democrats this time stepped in and said, ‘No, we want to shut this down."

Lankford warned that the shutdown’s ripple effects extend beyond Washington. “Federal workers aren’t receiving paychecks,” he said. “Businesses around federal buildings, like restaurants and other entities, are being affected. This contagion is now spreading out across the country … and this is exceptionally unnecessary.”

He emphasized that Republicans have consistently opposed shutdowns. “Republicans spoke out loud and clear, even last session, voting to say we don’t want to have government shutdowns at all,” Lankford said. “We want to get this government back open again and get us negotiating and doing the work of the American people.”

Attorney General Gentner Drummond’s Organized Crime Task Force (OCTF) yesterday raided an illegal marijuana grow operation near Wilson(west of Ardmore), confiscating and eradicating approximately 15,000 marijuana plants and hundreds of pounds of processed marijuana. At the grow site, the Task Force discovered several illegal immigrants who were taken into the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). 

OCTF agents with the assistance of the Drug Enforcement Administration, Homeland Security Investigations’ Customs and Border Patrol and ICE, Oklahoma National Guard, Carter County Sheriff’s Office, Carter County District 3 Commissioner’s Office and the Wilson Fire Department, conducted the raid on Purple Light 168 LLC, which was operating without proper registration through the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs Control. Agents also identified and seized body armor located at the grow site along with illegal Chinese pesticides that had been applied to the plants. 

Drummond said the operation points to the continued success and importance of the OCTF, which he established in 2023. “The task force and our law enforcement partners are doing a tremendous job of eradicating the scourge of illegal marijuana operations in Oklahoma and breaking the back of organized crime,” Drummond said. “We are building safer communities across the state with every illegal marijuana grow we shut down and with every illegal immigration arrest we make. With the help of the Trump administration, we are able to successfully partner with ICE to secure our border and deport illegal immigrants who are involved in these grow operations and other crimes.”

Mark Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist says This week I will answer an additional question based on producer feedback to articles from the past couple of weeks. Specifically, the relationship of high growth, high mature weight cows to calf weaning weights and profit potential of commercial cow-calf operations. We take a look at this relationship relative to the 2025 calf market.

The U.S. cow herd has been steadily increasing in mature weight for several decades. This is largely the result of selection pressure applied to increasing weaning and yearling weights. Because of the positive genetic correlations between weights taken at all stages of life, mature weight has increased even though that has not been the objective. Mature cow size can be effectively addressed (reduced) through well-planned breeding programs. Excessive mature weight of beef cows has several downsides. The focus of this article is its impact on profitability in commercial cow-calf operations.

Forage budgeting based on mature cow size indicates that for each 100 head of 1,000 pound cows you could run in your cow-calf operation, the same forage base (and feed input cost) would sustain 71 head of 1,400 pound cows. As well, for each 100 pound increase in mature weight, cows average approximately 10 more pounds of calf weaning weight produced. As shown in the graph below, research at Michigan State University indicates heavier weight cows (at a constant Body Condition Score), wean a lower percentage of their body weight. 

For the past year, the drumbeat across cattle country has been lower herd numbers, market fluctuations and rising input costs. Total beef supply tightened by 3% and beef retail prices climbed to an average of $8 per pound. Yet consumer demand for beef surged to a 40-year high. Despite the challenges, Certified Angus Beef (CAB) sales reached 1.235 billion pounds globally, marking it one of the brand’s strongest years in history. 

“The brand’s success this year is the direct result of the hard work and innovation across our entire beef community,” says John Stika, CAB president. “It’s their intentional efforts to win with Certified Angus Beef year in and year out that have allowed this brand to thrive over 47 years.” Today’s market is complex and competitive. Stika says the collective effort of stakeholders across the supply chain well position the brand to meet the record demand for premium beef moving forward.

Amidst the tightest brand supply in five years, the 2025 fiscal year was down 2.9% over last year’s record number of certified carcasses. Still, cattlemen and women produced 5.77 million certified carcasses. Brand acceptance rates hit an annual average of a 37.6% acceptance rate, with 12 weeks reaching record highs of 40% or more throughout the year.

Checking the Markets...

Choice Boxed Beef prices increased for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since September 25. Choice closed at $371.93, up $2.75, while Select finished at $352.57, down $0.89, bringing the Choice/Select spread to $19.36 on 128 loads. The Choice cutout has gained $9.66 since October 3.

OKC West had one of their largest Tuesday Calf sales of the year- 4,000 head. Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady. Buyers started the day cautious, but as the quality improved, they grew more aggressive for both weaned and unweaned cattle. They expect 3,500 head of yearlings for their Feeder Cattle sale Wednesday.

Beaver County Stockyards had a run of 5,075 cattle on Tuesday-  Compared to last sale: Feeder steer 3.00-8.00 lower conservatively. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves 5.00-10.00 higher. 

OKC West is our Market Links Sponsor- they sell cattle three days a week- Cows on Mondays, Stockers on Tuesday and Feeders on Wednesday- Call 405-262-8800 to learn more.

Click here for our Markets Page on OklahomaFarmReport.Com- there you will find many of the reports we have linked on the right hand column found on the previous format of our email.

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