Oklahoma's Latest Farm
and Ranch News
Monday, November 17, 2025
| | “Disappointing” USDA Report: Nelson Breaks Down Numbers | | |
After a 43-day government shutdown, the USDA finally released its updated production and demand reports on Friday. Post-Shutdown USDA Report and Allendale’s Rich Nelson say the new numbers were “a little disappointing” for producers hoping for a market rally, according to Nelson. The data, which is the first major update since September 12, was released alongside a compiled list of all missed overnight export sales, which also failed to impress the trade.
The most significant bearish news came from the wheat market. Nelson noted that wheat ending stocks “jumped… up to 901 million bushels,” which was higher than anticipated. While a production increase was already known from a report in late September, Nelson said the market was hit with two additional pieces of bad news.
Stagnant Exports: “Exports were not raised here for the US side,” he said. Increased Competition: “They really raised a lot of the foreign competitors. In fact, foreign competition [is] up 11 million metric tons just on this report alone.”
For corn, the market was anticipating a significant yield decline, but the USDA’s cut was small. “We saw yield declines in this case, just 0.7 bushels,” Nelson stated, adding that the resulting stock number of 2.15 billion bushels is “certainly” adequate.
| | “Excited About Yields”: 2025 Oklahoma Cotton Harvest Shines, Despite Price Concerns | | |
Oklahoma cotton producers are wrapping up a “really, really favorable” harvest season, with many reporting exciting and optimistic yields. However, according to OSU Cotton Extension Specialist Jenny Dudak, that excitement is being tempered by concerns over the “hot topic” of low cotton prices. Speaking with Farm Director KC Sheperd, Dudak provided a harvest status update, a breakdown of the successful growing season, and what producers should consider next.
As of early November, the cotton harvest is at different stages across the state. “In our traditional Southwest Oklahoma area, we are towards the end, if not wrapping up, with cotton harvest,” Dudak reported. “As you work your way north, we’re a little bit further behind,” she added, clarifying that the northern areas aren’t behind schedule, just simply behind the pace of the southern counties.
This year’s strong yields are the result of a growing season where the weather cooperated at nearly every crucial stage. Wet Start: The season began a bit wet, which necessitated some replanting, but conditions soon improved. Producers received “a little bit of rainfall… just at the right times” throughout the summer. Irrigation & Maturity: The irrigation district successfully irrigated the land, and the cotton matured very well.
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| Oklahoma Crop Forecast Shows Big 2025 Gains | | |
Oklahoma’s 2025 crop outlook is shaping up to be one of the strongest in years, with major gains forecast across corn, sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts.Corn for Grain: Production: Forecasted at 58,880,000 bushels, a significant increase from 40,180,000 bushels in 2024. Yield: Forecasted at 128.0 bushels per acre, up from 98.0 in 2024. Harvested Area: Forecasted at 460,000 acres, an increase from 410,000 acres in 2024.
Cotton: Production: Forecasted at 470,000 bales (480-pound bales), a major increase from 270,000 bales in 2024. Yield: Forecasted at 820 pounds per acre, up from 701 pounds per acre in 2024. Harvested Area: Forecasted at 275,000 acres, up from 185,000 acres in 2024.
Soybeans for Production: Forecasted at 10,560,000 bushels, an increase from 8,100,000 bushels in 2024. Yield: A record high is forecasted at 33.0 bushels per acre, a significant rise from 20.0 in 2024. Harvested Area: Forecasted at 320,000 acres, a decrease from 405,000 acres in 2024.
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Midwest Farm Shows is proud to produce the two best Farm Shows in the State of Oklahoma annually- the Tulsa Farm Show each December and the Oklahoma City Farm Show each April.
The Tulsa Farm Show is Oklahoma’s premier agricultural and ranching event- and returns to the SageNet Center (Expo Square) December 11,12 & 13, 2025.
Now is the ideal time to contact the Midwest Farm Show Office at 507-437-7969 and book space at the 2025 Tulsa Farm Show. To learn more about the Tulsa Farm Show, click here.
| | | OCA’s Michael Kelsey Calls for Realistic Screwworm Plan Amid Rising Political Pressure | | |
Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Executive Vice President of the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, Michael Kelsey, who says the New World screwworm remains a pressing concern for cattle producers across the southern U.S. As winter approaches, he notes that “we’re probably… not going to see it this winter,” but stresses it is “a matter of when, not if.” He believes the initial spread will likely come through wildlife or people rather than cattle because, as he notes, “the border is still closed.”
Kelsey emphasized that the highest priority must be building and activating sterile fly facilities. “We’ve got to have these sterile fly facilities built and up and running,” he says, adding that USDA’s full attention should be on this issue. He points out that screwworms present a different challenge than other foreign animal diseases, explaining, “It’s not a virus, it’s not a bacteria… We’ve lived with this before… and we have some tools in our toolbox now that we didn’t have back in the 40s, 50s and 60s.” While the USDA’s draft playbook feels “a bit harsh,” Kelsey says Oklahoma is fortunate to be working with Dr. Rod Hall, who has “a much more realistic approach.”
Producers are still encouraged to weigh in on USDA’s proposed plan. Kelsey notes, “They are still taking comments… we encourage producers, take a look at it, put your comments in.” He says OCA, along with NCBA, will submit their own input while also working with state officials to craft an Oklahoma-specific response.
| | Ag Markets Still In Limbo as Trade Talks and Reports Add Uncertainty | | |
OSU agricultural economist John Michael Riley says the impact of President Trump’s recent trade discussions in Asia has left markets waiting for clarity. He explains that while China indicated plans to purchase U.S. soybeans, “the market is very much in limbo as to when and how much those potential sales are going to actually happen.” Riley adds that long-term expectations remain uncertain, especially with competition coming as “our South American countries are going to be in harvest.”
Turning to cotton, Riley notes that Oklahoma’s crop is essentially done for the season, but the market itself is unsettled. He says cotton is “for the most part, fully complete here in Oklahoma,” yet prices remain unstable, with recent drops in oil prices and mixed signals from currency shifts. Overall, he describes the cotton market as “just on shaky ground right now.”
As wheat planting wraps up, Riley says producers have entered a management phase, watching markets for opportunities. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all saw some support from recent trade talk momentum, creating “some potential marketing opportunities” for farmers holding grain. However, Riley cautions that “basis remains very weak… across all of Oklahoma,” meaning many producers may benefit from delaying sales “if you can handle that from a cash flow standpoint.”
| | SNAP delay puts bigger strain on Oklahoma food pantries | | |
During the federal government shutdown, more than 680,000 Oklahoma families did not receive their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and many turned to local food pantries to help them continue putting nutritious food on the table.
Grocery prices are at an all-time high and consume a larger part of the household budget, said Nila Pradhananga, Oklahoma State University Extension food and nutrition state specialist. “The cost of food can make it harder to keep your family fed, and it’s even more difficult for those who lost their SNAP benefits,” Pradhananga said. “Local food pantries across the state have been a valuable resource for those families, but with more people seeking assistance, food pantries are stretched to the limit.”
Rachael Condley, executive director of Our Daily Bread in Stillwater, Oklahoma, reported a 20% increase in guests in Payne County. Our Daily Bread is a food and resource center that provides self-select groceries to families in the community at no cost to them.
| | USMEF Elects New Officers, Examines Reciprocal Trade Opportunities and USMCA Review | | |
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) concluded its Strategic Planning Conference Friday with election of its new officers. Chairing USMEF for the 2025-26 term is Jay Theiler (pronounced TYLER), executive vice president of corporate affairs for Agri Beef Company, based in Boise, Idaho.
Theiler recalled his early days with Agri Beef, when the company came to realize that it could not maximize the value of each head of livestock processed by selling product only in the Pacific Northwest, or even in the entire United States. “To get maximum value, we had to go to the international markets and include them in our sales,” Theiler said. “I did a lot of overseas trips in the early 2000s and many subsequent trips that laid the foundation for our success. When we traveled to Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan and Southeast Asia, we would meet with USMEF staff, who would paint a landscape of the distributors in the market and help us set up appointments and meetings. USMEF was really an integral part of our company story and our brand story. And I tell you this today because it may serve as an inspiration for others on how to grow your business and how USMEF can help.”
Looking forward, Theiler said differentiating the quality of U.S. red meat is essential to continued expansion of the global customer base.
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| October GRF collections exceed monthly estimate, fall slightly below prior year totals | | |
General Revenue Fund (GRF) collections in October totaled $695.9 million, which is $5.3 million, or 0.8%, above the monthly estimate. This total is also $15.9 million, or 2.2%, below collections from October 2024.
GRF collections for the first four months of fiscal year 2026 stand at $2.7 billion. This is $113.5 million, or 4.4%, above the year-to-date estimate and $7.9 million, or 0.3%, below collections from the same period in FY 2025. “Oklahoma’s finances remain strong and stable,” said State Chief Operating Officer and interim OMES Director David Ostrowe. “Our steady economy allows us to keep delivering real results for Oklahomans and strengthen our standing as a national leader.”
As state government’s main operating fund, the GRF is the key indicator of state government’s fiscal status and the predominant funding source for the annual appropriated state budget. GRF collections are revenues that remain for the appropriated state budget after rebates, refunds and other mandatory apportionments, and after sales and use taxes are remitted back to municipalities.
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Checking the Markets...
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.20, February live cattle down $0.22; November feeder cattle up $12.28, January feeder cattle up $0.9; Friday's slaughter is estimated at 93,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 28,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 576,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.84 ($370.73) and select down $0.79 ($354.24) with a movement of 128 loads
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to buy some inventory this week with a deferred delivery option, it's likely that they're building enough supply up around them that they won't have to support the cash market to a degree in which prices would inch higher.
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Click here for our Markets Page on OklahomaFarmReport.Com- there you will find our latest reports on cattle auctions, boxed beef, cash grains and market analysis.
OKC West is our Market Links Sponsor- they sell cattle three days a week- Cows on Mondays, Stockers on Tuesday and Feeders on Wednesday- Call 405-262-8800 to learn more.
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