~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Monday October 3, 2011A service of Johnston Enterprises, P & K Equipment/ P & K Wind Energy and American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company!
-- Drought Could Help Contribute to Sharply Lower Beef Supplies for Consumers by the Second Half of 2012
-- Texas and Southwest Cattle Raisers Educating Producers on Dealing with Drought
-- USDA Grain Stocks Numbers Proved to be Negative for Corn and Wheat- and Soybeans Ended September with a Big Tumble as Well.
-- Renewable Fuels Association Touts Higher Stocks as Proof Adequate Supplies Are Available for Feed and Fuel
-- Angus Board Approves Long Range Strategic Plan
-- Herbicide Management Essential in Drought Conditions
-- Monday's Bits and Pieces- A Cool September in the Books- Express Bulls and Indianapolis or Bust in Two Weeks!
-- Dealing with Federal Regs for Oil Spill Prevention, Control and Countermeasures.
-- Let's Check the Markets!
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update- click here to go to their AFR web site to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!
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Drought Could Help Contribute to Sharply Lower Beef Supplies for Consumers by the Second Half of 2012
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U.S. meat and poultry production is headed for what researchers at the Rabobank International Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR) group anticipate to be a "precipitous fall" by mid-2012. Beef and broiler supplies are all expected to tighten as production increasingly lags behind GDP growth.
The Rabobank International Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR) group's "Where's the Beef?" report notes that drought in the U.S. is a major contributor to the production decline, but the report finds that global meat and poultry production is in the midst of a multi-year process of adjusting to higher and more volatile feed costs. Since the US is a large and significant exporter of meat protein, the decline will also affect world markets as well as demand for feed, notably for corn. Our colleague Stewart Doan of Agri-Pulse talked with David Nelson has an audio overview of the report- click on the LINK below to hear that perspective.
"The drastic decline in protein production we anticipate will be felt in a number of industries," notes David Nelson, Global Strategist with the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team. "We expect the decline will create concerns for everyone from foodservice operators to corn producers."
The report delves into domestic and global consumption trends. Per capita meat consumption in the U.S. appears to have peaked. The poultry industry, in particular, should no longer count on rising domestic demand as a means of growing its way out of over-production situations. However, a rising GDP in the developing world is contributing to an increasing global for meat protein.
"The greater global demand for meat protein is the key driver to rising feed costs, which in turn drive up the cost of raising animal protein," says Nelson. "Global meat and poultry production continues to significantly lag GDP growth, which is, of course, the key factor behind rising prices."
Texas and Southwest Cattle Raisers Educating Producers on Dealing with Drought
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The drought across a majority of the southern Plains has had a variety of effects on farmers and ranchers and many cattle organizations are stepping up to help producers deal with these changes. Texas Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association is one of those organizations and they are doing their part by hosting a variety of meetings to help producers better understand some of these issues.
TSCRA Executive Director Eldon White says they are informing people about how to manage their herd during the drought, while especially looking at increased instances of diseases and vitamin and nutrition deficiencies. White says the TSCRA is working to provide that educational base so that producers will have the best possible chance of maintaining their herd health through the drought.
Another topic the TSCRA is tackling is the problem of range rejuvenation. White says TSCRA has been told, if the southern Plains gets back to a degree of normal rainfall, it could be 2 to 3 years before the range will fully rejuvenate and be back in the state it was before the drought. White says this is another topic producers need to focus on besides just herd maintenance.
Eldon White is our Monday guest on Beef Buzz- just click on the LINK
below to listen to White discuss more on the programs the TSCRA is
offering to producers to deal with the issues of the drought across the
USDA Grain Stocks Numbers Proved to be Negative for Corn and Wheat- and Soybeans Ended September with a Big Tumble as Well.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~In the USDA Grain Stocks and Production numbers this past Friday morning, corn stocks were much larger than expected and was the only "surprise". According to Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities, the report was expected to be negative for the corn market- and that proved to be the case as corn fell limit down in the Friday trade- forty cents a bushel., You can hear Tom's complete analysis of the USDA Grain numbers by clicking on the listen bar at the bottom of the page.
Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 1.13 billion bushels, down 34 percent from September 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 315 million bushels are stored on farms, down 35 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 813 million bushels, are down 33 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2011 indicated disappearance is 2.54 billion bushels, compared with 2.60 billion bushels during the same period last year. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 215 million bushels, up 42 percent from September 1, 2010.
Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 48.5 million bushels, up 37
percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 166 million bushels, are up
44 percent from last September.
By settlement time on Friday- corn was off forty cents a bushel, KC and Chicago wheat had tumbled 35 to 45 cents, soybeans were trimmed by 51 cents a bushel while the New York Cotton trade had 200 points- or two cents a pound worth of losses at the end of the week. Agricultural futures also had pressure on them from the equity markets, as the Dow Jones fell 240 points, ending up with a twelve percenty loss for the third quarter.
Renewable Fuels Association Touts Higher Stocks as Proof Adequate Supplies Are Available for Feed and Fuel
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~According to the USDA quarterly grain stocks report, end stocks of corn for the 2010/2011 marketing year stand at 1.13 billion bushels. That is nearly 200 million bushels higher than many experts were predicting and an indication that the market is working to ensure sufficient supplies of corn remain available for all uses.
"Pushing corn stocks back above one billion bushels is important for the psyche of the market," said Renewable Fuels Association Vice President Geoff Cooper. "Having more corn available should somewhat ease supply concerns brought on by poor growing conditions this year and provide more of a buffer until farmers complete the harvest of this year's crop. Despite this temporary tightness in the corn market, it is clear that with the proper market signals American farmers can and will ensure enough corn is available for all uses."
As the chart demonstrates, which can be found by following the link below, the livestock feed produced at US ethanol biorefineries (known as distillers grains or DDGS) provides a substantial amount of supply to the feed market. On a net basis, ethanol production consumes 25 percent of the nation's corn crop. When the amount of corn used for ethanol feed co-products is combined with feed and residual demand, total feed demand becomes 6.35 billion bushels, or 47 percent of expected use in 2011/12.
Much has been made of the smaller than usual carryover in corn supplies and the impact this may have on corn prices. Predictably, many of the critics of ethanol including fast food chains, corporate livestock and meat processors, and food manufacturers have eagerly sought to blame ethanol production for higher prices. As the RFA has pointed out time and again, such claims simply lack any fundamental statistical evidence. As the chart below notes, corn prices hovered between $3-4/bushel and were actually trending downward during the period of high growth for ethanol production (1/09 to 8/10). Ethanol use was flat or declining in the period when corn prices spiked to $6/bushel and then to $7/bushel.
Angus Board Approves Long Range Strategic Plan
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~After more than a century of expansion, the Angus breed has become one of American agriculture's greatest success stories - a story of quality, demand and innovation.
Today, more than 60 percent of cattlemen identify their herd as Angus, and those Angus-sired calves continue to put more money back into the pockets of cow-calf producers than any other breed - approximately $35 more per head than non-Angus contemporaries according to a recent 10-year study. And thanks to branded beef programs like Certified Angus Beef®, "Angus" has become a household name.
Indeed, the breed is thriving, but Association President Joe Hampton
says Angus success won't be taken for granted.
With an eye toward the future, the American Angus Association Board of Directors approved a long-range strategic plan geared toward growing the relevance of the Angus breed.
Herbicide Management Essential in Drought Conditions
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~As if to add insult to injury, drought conditions make weed control even more challenging and important than usual. Weeds compete for light, nutrients, space and, most importantly during a drought, water. Since water is already limiting, the tolerance for competition is less, and our economic threshold for controlling weeds may be lower, according to James Locke with the Noble Foundation. While tillage or other cultural practices may be useful, this article will only address the effect of drought on herbicides, particularly with respect to small grains or winter pasture.
The first consideration is to determine which herbicides have already been applied to the previous crop or pasture. Factors affecting herbicide breakdown include soil pH, moisture, temperature and micro-organism activity. During a drought, soils are dry and microbial activity is low, which can lead to some herbicides persisting longer than normal. Although herbicide labels include acceptable rotation intervals between herbicide application and planting, these intervals are based on normal conditions and may not be representative during a drought.
The second consideration is activation of preemergence herbicides. In order for preemergence herbicides to work, they must be moved into the soil by either rainfall or sprinkler irrigation. The maximum allowable period of time between application and activation varies with the herbicide. In general, the sooner the herbicide is activated after application, the better. Rainfall or irrigation needs to wet the soil 2 to 3 inches deep for herbicide activation.
Monday's Bits and Pieces- A Cool September in the Books- Express Bulls and Indianapolis or Bust in Two Weeks!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~While little relief from drought was found in September, the reprieve from the intense summer heat was nearly instantaneous. After three summer-like days to begin the month, fall weather kicked into high gear and temperatures plummeted.
The hottest summer in Oklahoma history soon gave way to the 30th coolest September since records began in 1895. The statewide average temperature for the month was 70.9 degrees according to preliminary data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, Click here for the full summary of our September weather as pulled together by Gary McManus and company at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.
Last call for the 2011 Express Ranches Fall Bull Sale- it starts Monday at high noon at the Ranch in Yukon, Oklahoma. We mentioned last week that they have an exceptional amount of cuttiing edge EPD genomic data on most of the bulls being offered- and you can review all of that- as well as get info on how to see the auction on line if you can't be there live- just click here for the Express Ranches link for more info on this sale.
We are right at two weeks away from the 2011 National FFA Convention that will be held once again in downtown Indianapolis, Indiana- some 55,000 FFA members and supporters are expected to inundate Indy- and we have some incredibly talented Oklahoma FFA members that will be representing the state at the national level. The Oklahoma FFA Association has compiled a multi-page list of those who will be in competition or otherwise honored at this year's national meeting- click here for that most impressive list- but I think they are forgetting one individual who will be keeping the focus on the Oklahoma FFA at the national level later this month- and that is none other than Riley Pagett of the Woodward FFA, the National President of the organization. Just an oversight I know- and we look forward to providing you coverage of our Oklahomans in the Blue and Gold starting October 19th, made possible by some of our great sponsors, including the Oklahoma FFA Association and the Oklahoma FFA Alumni.
Dealing with Federal Regs for Oil Spill Prevention, Control and Countermeasures.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Farm and ranch operators who have gas or diesel storage on their place may be facing new regulations handed down by Uncle Sam. If you have more than a total of 1,320 gallons of above ground storage (start counting with all of your containers of 55 gallons or bigger and add them up)- you are obligated by these new rules to have a Oil Spill Prevention, Control and Countermeasures plan. Deadline to have your "plan" in place is November 10 of this year. We have an Oklahoma based company that is going to be one of our e-mail sponsors for the next couple of months- One Resource Environmental- who can help you determine if you do need a plan and then if you do- help you get that plan in place. Click here for their main website to learn more.
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Let's Check the Markets!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~We've had requests to include Canola prices for your convenience here- and we will be doing so on a regular basis. Current cash price for Canola is $11.58 per bushel- as of the close of business yesterday, while the 2012 New Crop contracts for Canola are now available are $11.60 per bushel- delivered to local participating elevators that are working with PCOM.
Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click
on the name of the report to go to that link:
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