OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Cattle Market Fundamentals Clearing with Improved Drought Conditions 

Through much of the winter, uncertainty about continued drought in major beef cattle regions contributed to uncertainty about cattle industry supply fundamentals. Would 2012 be another year of drought forced liquidation, like 2011, or can the industry get back to responding to growing market signals for herd expansion?   OSU's Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, Derrell Peel, says this question has significant implications for cattle markets in both the short run and the long run.

The data indicate that heifer retention began in 2009. Despite smaller January 1 heifer inventories, a higher percentage of available replacement heifers were utilized and the number of heifers entering the herd increased. The trend continued in 2010 with another increase in the number of heifers entering the herd, despite a smaller inventory of replacement heifers. Despite continued net national liquidation, by January of 2011 solid indications of herd expansion were in place in several states, mostly in the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountain regions. The Southern Plains drought of 2011 resulted in significant reductions in heifer retention despite continued growth in beef cow herds in more states in other parts of the country.   

The January 1, 2012 inventory of beef replacement heifers was 1.4 percent higher than the previous year, setting the stage for more heifer retention...if drought conditions permit. It now appears that drought is unlikely to cause significant additional forced liquidation and thus it will be other factors that determine how much and how fast heifer retention occurs in 2012 and beyond. While active drought is unlikely to cause additional liquidation, the aftermath of the drought with respect to the amount of damage to pastures and rangelands and the time required for recovery is still quite uncertain. While the amount of heifer retention in the drought areas is likely to be limited in 2012, continued or accelerated heifer retention in other areas is likely to result in an increase in the number of beef heifers entering the herd in 2012.  

You can click here to read more of Derrell Peel's analysis

 of how last year's drought continues to shape cattle markets. 

Much-Needed Rains, Warm Temps Speed Crop Development--Your Latest Crop Weather Update 

A slow-moving storm system brought needed rain across much of the state, improving drought conditions. The March 20th Drought Monitor showed 45 percent of the state was no longer in a drought condition, compared to 38 percent the prior week. The majority of the Panhandle remained in an extreme to exceptional drought, and areas of the western part of the state remained in a moderate to severe drought.

Small grain crops and canola benefitted from the rains, improving progress and conditions for all crops. Wheat jointing was 73 percent complete by Sunday, up 20 points from last week and 23 points ahead of the five-year average; heading had begun in a few areas.

Fifty-six percent of the wheat crop was reported to be in good condition, 19 percent was reported to be in excellent shape, 19 percent was reported to be fair and six percent was listed in poor or very poor condition.

Fifty-two percent of Oklahoma's canola crop was in good condition, 26 percent was in fair condition, 16 percent was in excellent condition with only six percent reported to be poor or very poor.

Kansas wheat conditions last week showed 48 percent to be in good shape, 33 percent in fair shape, 11 percent in excellent condition and only eight percent showing to be in poor or very poor condition.

Thirty-one percent of the Texas wheat crop was in fair condition, 28 percent was good, 11 percent was in excellent shape, and the remaining 30 percent was in poor or very poor condition.

Click here for the complete Crop Weather Update for the state of Oklahoma. 

Conditions Favorable for Rust Problems in Oklahoma Wheat Fields- Bob Hunger Updates

The latest rundown of wheat disease problems in the southern plains was made available over the weekend by OSU Plant Pathologist Dr. Bob Hunger. Dr. Hunger says that for Oklahoma wheat producers- the week of rains makes this coming week one of decision when it comes to the application of a foliar fungicide. Hunger says "although neither leaf rust or stripe rust are widely present at this time, it is getting close to decision time regarding the application of a foliar fungicide."

His report for Oklahoma is first (in first person by Dr. Hunger)- followed by reports he provides from colleagues.  (Reports from Texas and Kansas are available at the link below.)

Oklahoma: I didn't get out in the field much this past week - too much rain (thankfully). However, I have received several reports and made a few phone calls, so will forward that information on. My impression is that much of the wheat in Oklahoma looks good and is about 2 weeks early.

In southwest/south central Oklahoma, Mark Gregory (SW Area Extn Agron Spec) today indicated that much of the wheat in the area has the flag leaf emerging to fully emerged, but that wheat is not yet in the boot (but is getting close). He hasn't seen any rust, but has seen quite a bit of powdery mildew.

In northwest Oklahoma, Roger Gribble (NW Area Extn Agron Spec) reported that on 23-Mar he toured through NW Oklahoma (Seiling, Arnett, Taloga, Woodward, Gage, Alva, Buffalo, Homestead) and saw generally across that area wheat had the flag leaf rolled up and emerging but not yet completely emerged. Roger saw tan spot and powdery mildew but no leaf or stripe rust.

More of Dr. Hunger's report--as well as reports from his colleagues in Texas and Kansas--can be found by clicking here.

4-H Members Explore Issues Affecting Youth at the 2012 National 4-H Conference

Two hundred 4-H members from across the country came to the nation's capital to make their voice heard as part of the 2012 National 4-H Conference, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA). Dr. Jill Biden, Second Lady of the United States, and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack addressed the delegates during the morning general session.

"These 4-H members are extraordinary role models and mentors in their communities," Dr. Biden said. "Just as our military men and women serve our country on the battlefield, these young people lead in our communities. Over the next few decades, one of the tasks that will define their generation will be their support for our returning veterans and our military families."

"For almost 100 years, USDA and 4-H have partnered to produce some of our nation's best and brightest, including farmers and ranchers who have supported the American economy and put food on our tables," Vilsack said. "You all are tomorrow's leaders. We need you to think big, innovate and help tackle the important challenges standing between us, a stronger middle class and a stronger nation."

Click here to read more about the 4-H national conference in Washington, D.C.

Boxed Beef Prices Down Again - Audio with Ed Czerwien, USDA Market News Office

In this week's beef report, according to Ed Czerwien, USDA Market News Office in Amarillo, Texas, we saw the choice cut market end the week of March 23 down again. It was down $2.50 from the previous Friday. The load volume was also down about 300 loads from the previous week.

The finished cattle trade was generally steady to a dollar higher to end the week at mostly $126 in the South, but the Northern Plains saw $127 to 128 on the hoof, $200 to $204 in the meat.

The average live weight of cattle harvested from the Texas Panhandle was 1242 pounds, up about three pounds from the previous week, but only two pounds heavier than this time last year.

The monthly Cattle on Feed Report last Friday showed on-feed numbers up three percent.

Catch Ed Czerwien's complete weekly audio report by clicking here.

Spring Canola Tours Announced by Oklahoma State University

The 2012 spring Canola Field Tour schedule has been released by Josh Bushong, OSU Extension Canola Specialist. There will be a total of 13 stops on this look at Canola across the western half of the state over a four-day period. They will look at several production topics for the crop as it will be in full bloom or slightly beyond that stage- harvest options will be discussed as well as marketing and the varieties that are growing in the field plots.

Click here for the county-by-county rundown of dates, times and locations.

A tentative list of speakers and topics will include (may be modified):

Josh Bushong (OSU, Extension Canola Specialist) - Canola in No-till

Dr. Tom Royer (OSU, IPM Specialist) and/or other OSU Ento / Plant Path Personnel - Pest Management

Dr. Brian Arnall (OSU, Precision Nutrient Management) - Canola Fertility and pH

Heath Sanders (PCOM, Oilseed Agronomist) - Harvest Options

Jessica Swan (ADM, Merchandiser) - Canola Marketing and Forecast

Dr. Chad Godsey (OSU, Cropping Systems Specialist) and Mark Boyles (OSU, Canola Specialist) - Canola Variety Performance

Some speakers may not be available at every location, but all topics will still be covered. About 1 1/2 hours will be spent at each stop.
 

We Need Horses, Pink Slime, Shorthorns and More!

We are now just a few weeks away from the start of the 2012 Southern Plains Farm Show- the dates this year are April 19-21 at State Fair Park in Oklahoma City- and once again, we are working with our friends at Midwest Farm Shows to find a couple of horses to be used in the training sessions with Scott Daily this year.  We already have a couple of the slots filled for horse training with Scott in April- from some folks who inquired last fall as we asked you for nominations at the Tulsa Farm Show- so we need just two horses to have this spring's dance card filled.  If you have a horse that you would like Scott to work  with at this year's show- email me by clicking here- or give me a call and leave details on my voicemail- 405-841-3675.  Give me a couple of details about the horse- age, what problems you may have with him and what problems might need to be corrected as a horse trainer works with him- AND- be sure and give us your name, town, email and best number to get in touch with you.  You will need to be able to get the horse to Oklahoma City on either the afternoon of the 18th or early morning the 19th.  

A Couple of Links to Share with You- The nightmare of ABC News and their pink slime stories has turned very real for workers at several plants operated by  Beef Products, Inc- as they have given layoff notices to 600 works in three states- including in Garden City, Kansas and Amarillo, Texas.  

The company contends the product is totally lean beef- no fillers- and is safe.  USDA agrees- but the activists who stirred up this latest trouble for BPI worries about the ammonia  gas that is used in the process to keep pathogens down- from a Reuters story- "Hamburger is not a completely safe product, but the BPI product is as safe, if not safer, than other parts of hamburger," said Seattle-based food safety lawyer William Marler. "BPI has gotten crushed by public sentiment that this stuff is icky."  Click here for this story detailing the closing for now of these three plants- and we ran across a website- click here- that helps refute the allegations leveled by opponents of the process.   

Finally- we have multiple auctions on our Auction page at OklahomaFarmReport.Com- and we invite you to jump over there and check details of each of these sales out- in particular, we remind you of the 2012 edition of the Oklahoma Sooner Classic Shorthorn Sale that will be happening this Saturday, March 31st at the fairgrounds in Duncan.  Click here for all of the details of this annual Shorthorn gathering that happens both Friday and Saturday.