~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Tuesday January 12, 2010A service of Producers Cooperative Oil Mill, Midwest Farm Shows and KIS Futures!
-- 2009-2010 Crop Report Out This Morning From USDA
-- Fearless Francl Offers Crop Price Predictions Just Ahead of the January Data
-- Less Supply- But What About Demand in 2010 for Livestock Producers???
-- Animal Agriculture Alliance Upset Over Reporting About Antibiotic Use in Livestock
-- Stenholm Beats the Drum For Horse Processing in the US
-- Tractor Sales End 2009 Down 21%, While Combine Sales Rose 15%
-- Let's Check the Markets!
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are proud to have KIS Futures as a regular sponsor of our daily email update. KIS Futures provides Oklahoma Farmers & Ranchers with futures & options hedging services in the livestock and grain markets- Click here for the free market quote page they provide us for our website or call them at 1-800-256-2555.
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2009-2010 Crop Report Out This Morning From USDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~This (Tuesday) morning at 7:30 central time USDA's National Ag Statistics Service reports its first of the new year crop forecast. Early trade estimates are wider than usual. Average estimates for corn production range from 12.5 to almost 13 billion bushels, with the average guess at 12.81 billion. The range of soybean crop estimates is 3.2 to 3.4 billion bushels, with the average at 3.33 billion. The average trade estimate for corn is about 100 million bushels below USDA's December estimate, while the average bean number is up 18 million bushels from a month ago.
Allendale pegs the US corn crop at just four million bushels shy of 13 billion. The soybean estimate is the same as last month's USDA estimate of 3.3 billion bushels. Allendale expects USDA to raise corn ending stocks by 56 million bushels, while cutting the soybean carryout 15 million, and wheat ending stocks by two million bushels. Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 4.5 percent from a year ago.
DTN's Darin Newsom says some of the most anticipated numbers may come from the World Outlook Board as they offer a prediction of world crop production in several key crops and countries. He says the number that could have major impact is that of South American soybean production. There is the possibility that both the Brazil and Argentina soybean crop numbers could be ratcheted up by about 2 million metric tonnes each, adding a lot of soybeans to the global mix.
We will have details on these reports up on our website somewhere around 8 AM or a little after- including some thoughts from Tom Leffler on what he sees as significant. With so many reports to be issued this morning- it will make the opening of the grain market this morning in the open outcry at 9:30 much less certain than normal, as various people focus on different things they see as significant.
Fearless Francl Offers Crop Price Predictions Just Ahead of the January Data
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Terry Francl, market analyst for the American Farm Bureau, had to offer to the members of his organization a set of predictions about where the prices for major crops may be headed in 2010 at their annual meeting in Seattle. I guess actually it's a little easier to do this with the January Crop Reports coming out less than 48 hours after you are speaking- as you can throw in there somewhere that if USDA changes their numbers, all bets are off.
Anyway, Francl told members that a potential federal boost to the
ethanol market, South American forecasts, reduced global cotton output and
an international outpouring of "wheat, wheat, wheat" will influence U.S.
farm fortunes this season.
"There's not much you can say, other than we've got wheat, wheat, wheat
everywhere," Francl said, noting bushels flowing from the Black Sea
region, the former Soviet Union, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. Thus,
wheat likely will trade in the $5 per bushel to $6 per bushel range, with
pressures toward a possible $4.50 per bushel by harvest.
Less Supply- But What About Demand in 2010 for Livestock Producers???
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Optimism tempered with caution are the words to remember in the livestock outlook for 2010, according to John Anderson, an Extension livestock economist with Mississippi State University. "The livestock market in 2009 was pretty tough, but there are good reasons to be optimistic in where these markets are headed as we move through 2010," Anderson said a seminar today at the American Farm Bureau Federation's 91st annual meeting.
In 2009, weak profit margins for producers of beef, pork and poultry led to reductions in supply as 2010 begins which means a more favorable supply situation. However, questions still remain on the demand side of the equation. "We really need help on the demand side, and there are signs of improvement," Anderson said."The general economy remains the key to future developments in the livestock market."
In addition to improving prices, livestock producers should see improvements in profit margins in 2010. ""Feed grain prices remain historically high but have stabilized in recent months. Increasing grain and oilseed stocks have reduced some of the pressure on grain prices that has been the dominant feature of those markets since late 2006," Anderson said. For cattle feedlots that have been losing a lot of money over the last couple of years, seeing some pens of cattle close out in the black will be welcome news- and hog producers desperately need that same outcome in the new year, since 2009 was brutal in the swine sector.
Animal Agriculture Alliance Upset Over Reporting About Antibiotic Use in Livestock
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The Animal Agriculture Alliance is disappointed by the many unsubstantiated claims portrayed as fact in the widespread Associated Press article entitled Pressure Rises to Stop Antibiotics in Agriculture. Released on Dec. 29, the story was the third installment of a five-part series about antibiotic resistance in the United States. The Alliance contents that the authors did not offer a balanced analysis of the complex issue, instead relying on biased sources to portray America's food producers in a negative light.
"America's farmers, ranchers and veterinarians are committed to ensuring the health of their animals and the safety of their products," said Kay Johnson Smith, Alliance Executive Vice President. "Antibiotic use in agriculture is carefully monitored to provide a healthy, plentiful food supply for all."
The Alliance also believes that the AP article dangerously blurs the line between opinion and fact. Although the authors quote an unsubstantiated estimate that 70 percent of the antibiotics used in the U.S. are administered to livestock, they fail to acknowledge that nearly half of the total estimated amount is made up of ionophores and other compounds not used in human medicine that do not impact human resistance. The article also inaccurately suggests that animal feed is constantly "laced" with antibiotics. In reality, each antibiotic is administered according to the specifications of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved label that clearly indicates the number of doses and duration of use.
The Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production's 2008 report,
Putting Meat on the Table, is cited multiple times in the story, despite
its many biased and sensationalized claims. The American Veterinary
Medical Association (AVMA) and, most recently, the Federation of Animal
Science Societies (FASS) have found "significant flaws" within the Pew
Commission's report, stating that the group purposefully chose not to
incorporate the findings of a significant number of participating
scientists. FASS indicated that, while the Commission assumed that all
large farms are inherently inhumane, there are many factors that influence
animal well-being, including management, feeding systems, environmental
features, and animal type. The Animal Agriculture Alliance Coalition
provided numerous reports on the topics being considered for the Pew
Commission's report, including antibiotic use, but input from the
agriculture community was repeatedly ignored.
Stenholm Beats the Drum For Horse Processing in the US
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The lack of processing facilities for unwanted horses is a growing problem in rural areas of America- and former Texas lawmaker Charles Stenholm told members of the American Farm Bureau in Seattle this week that he is gratified to see the grass roots horse industry begin to push back. Stenholm, our guest on today's Beef Buzz, says that there is a GAO study that has just kicked off and will be reported out in early March that could open some eyes in Congress about the problem, if horse owners will offer feedback to the government. The GAO was instructed to prepare a report for Congress that indicates what the effect of the closure of the horse processing facilities have been on the welfare of horses themselves, and what the effect was been on farm and ranch economy.
Stenholm says that groups like United Organizations of the Horse are raising awareness of this study, as well as how groups like HSUS continue to promote the idea that horses are pets and are no different than a cat or a dog. He believes that private property rights are being trampled with this line of thought- and it does not recognize the reality that in other countries, horse meat is eaten and accepted by consumers.
Click on the link below for our Beef Buzz(even tho we are talking horses today) show as heard on great radio stations around the state on the Radio Oklahoma Network. We also have the link to the UOH (United Organizations of the Horse) there which will take you to more information on the GAO study and has ways for you to submit your thoughts to the GAO on that site.
Tractor Sales End 2009 Down 21%, While Combine Sales Rose 15%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers' monthly "Flash Report," the sales of all tractors in the U.S. for December 2009 were down 9% compared to the same month last year. For the year 2009, a total of 155,541 tractors were sold, which compares to 197,740 sold through December 2008.
For the month, two-wheel-drive smaller tractors (Under 40 HP) were down 6%, while 40 & under 100 HP were down 17%. Sales of two-wheel-drive 100+ HP were down 1.7% from last year, and four-wheel-drive tractors were up 17% for the month. For the year 2009, two-wheel drive smaller tractors (Under 40 HP) were down 20% from last year, while 40 & under 100 HP were down 29%. Sales of two-wheel drive 100+ HP were down 13%, while four-wheel-drive tractors were up 2% for the year.
Combine sales were up 3% for the month. Sales of combines for the year
2009 totaled 9,717, an increase of 15% over the same period in 2008.
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Let's Check the Markets!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~We've had requests to include Canola prices for your convenience here- and we will be doing so on a regular basis. Current cash price for Canola is $7.70 per bushel, while the 2010 New Crop contracts for Canola are now available are $7.95 per bushel- delivered to local participating elevators that are working with PCOM.
Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click
on the name of the report to go to that link:
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