~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Friday October 31, 2008!A service of Producers Cooperative Oil Mill, Farm Credit Associations of Oklahoma and Midwest Farm Shows!
-- OSU Extension Officials- Especially Dr. Tom Royer Has Been Left with An Empty Bag as the 2008 Farm Law Has Locked Up ALL the Treats.
-- COOL and Lame Ducks and Even EPA- Some of the ground we covered with Colin Woodall of NCBA
-- Kim Anderson- The Wheat Market Bottom is IN
-- More on the Implications of the Economic Crash on farm Economics
-- Greg Doud Offers His Take on Economic Meltdown and the Cattle Industry
-- Cotton Program Details Unveiled by USDA
-- Wheat Growers Meeting in Big D- Followed in by Feedlot Operators First of the Week
-- Let's Check the Markets!
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We salute our longest running email sponsor- Midwest Farm Shows, producer of the annual Tulsa Farm Show scheduled for December 11-13 here in 2008, as well as the springtime Southern Plains Farm Show in Oklahoma City. Check out details of both of these exciting shows at the official website of Midwest Farm Shows by clicking here.
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OSU Extension Officials- Especially Dr. Tom Royer Has Been Left with An Empty Bag as the 2008 Farm Law Has Locked Up ALL the Treats.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~It is not a happy Halloween for Dr. Tom Royer and other OSU Division of Ag officials associated with the Extension Integrated Pest Management program. The "trick" that is in play on the OSU IPM program is also being played on similar Land Grant programs all across the country. It seems that the 2008 Farm Law has language that changes the continuity that has been in place for many years for this extension effort to get farmers to use natural methods of pest control with a minimum of chemicals when feasible. No longer can a Land Grant University "apply and receive" but now they are eligible to "compete for and receive" federal funds.
Royer says the lack of funding as the new fiscal year begins means that several important programs are in limbo and substantial jeopardy of being shelved. Royer has had to remove salary support for three staff from IPM funding, as well as a graduate student who was working on a biological control project for salt cedar. He also has had to cancel funding support for an area agronomist who was assigned to assist new canola growers with crop and pest management issues as they attempt to diversify their farming operations. "If we do not get a resolution by the end of this November, these positions are at risk," said Royer, "We are desperately seeking alternative funding, but it is unclear as to whether it can be found in time. This would end any continuity in our IPM programming efforts in Oklahoma."
According to Royer and other state IPM Coordinators, staff losses can mean the loss of scouting assistance on a grower's field, interpretation of pest monitoring data or warnings about approaching pests and diseases as well as demonstrating new IPM techniques as they are developed.
We have more on this developing story on our website- including an email that you can send comments to regarding this virtual shutdown of the program until next April at the very least. Click on the link below for our story at WWW.OklahomaFarmReport.Com
COOL and Lame Ducks and Even EPA- Some of the ground we covered with Colin Woodall of NCBA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Our latest Ag Perspectives Podcast as seen on WWW.OklahomaFarmReport.Com features a lengthy conversation with Colin Woodall of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. You can click on the link below to jump to our webpage where you can listen to Colin and I discuss multiple topics- you can also subscribe there if you care to do so to receive our various podcasts via Itunes or similar programs to listen to on your computer or your MP3 player- like an Ipod.
Woodall says at least some consumers are raising concerns about the COOL beef label showing the product coming from all three countries. Woodall points out the vast majority of beef going to the packer and then on to the grocery store and purchased by consumers is USA origin. NCBA hopes as much of the product as is possible will be labeled that way. Woodall also talked with us about the need to get USDA to publish the final rules for COOL out- hopefully before the Bush Administration turns outs the lights at USDA for last time in January. He says that NCBA believes that publishing the final rule is very doable for USDA between now and the first of the year.
We also spoke about a lame duck session- and what come up during a November/December session. NCBA expects a lame duck session, with an economic stimulus package likely to be pushed by the Democrats- while the White House is hoping for votes on one or more of the three Free Trade deals that have been left in limbo by the Democratic majority- FTAs with Columbia, Peru and South Korea.
Kim Anderson- The Wheat Market Bottom is IN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~He's a regular on the revamped SUNUP TV program that is now seen Saturday mornings on OETA- and this week in his segment with host Clinton Griffiths, Dr. Kim Anderson declares that the wheat market bottom is in- perhaps for the year. And he thinks there is a chance that cash wheat prices at local elevators could crawl back up closer to $6 per bushel by around the first of December. That was where he thought they would be back in the summer before we had the economic meltdown kick in and overwhelm market fundamentals.
The economic uncertainty that remains as we end October still has Kim Anderson's full attention- and he says another leg down on Wall Street and all bets are off on where our ag commodities might be valued at least short term.
We have Dr. Anderson's comments on our website- courtesy of SUNUP and we remind you that you can see Dr. Anderson's segment as well as a lot more tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM on your local OETA station with Clinton and his crew.
More on the Implications of the Economic Crash on farm Economics
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Five new reports prepared by members of the University of Illinois-Urbana/Champaign (UIUC) Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics focus on how the current financial crisis impacts agriculture and changes decision-making for producers. Even though the reports emphasize potential impacts on corn and soybean production, they do offer broad insight that may benefit international wheat buyers. For example, the reports suggest that while slowing demand is pulling down prices, the main anchor on prices may be low confidence. The five-part package is available on the University's Extension Farm Decision Outreach Central, or "farmdoc," we have the website linked for you below.
"The recent turmoil in financial markets is very large by any reasonable standard of comparison," said Scott Irwin, professor of agricultural and consumer economics at UIUC. "The farmdoc team prepared these articles to illustrate the impact of the current financial crisis on the agricultural economy and decision-making." Paul Ellinger and Bruce Sherrick, two UIUC agricultural economics professors who authored the "Financial Markets in Agriculture" article counsel U.S. producers that bankers are likely to ask for more financial information and cash flow projections before making a loan. They say lenders still trust their farmer customers, with whom they have very positive relationships, but enhanced banking regulations will require the scrutiny.
The authors conclude that agricultural lenders remain financially strong even though profit margins are down because of the crisis and lower interest rates. "The larger concern will be the impact of the current economic downturn on producer profit margins," Ellinger and Sherrick write. "Rising rents and input costs and lower commodity prices increase the risk for producers and for lenders. Another concern is the impact of shrinking margins on land prices and thus on the financial health of their borrowers."
Greg Doud Offers His Take on Economic Meltdown and the Cattle Industry
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The Chief Economistof the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, Gregg Doud, released the following statement yesterday on the economy and its consequences for the beef industry:
"Lately, economists and market analysts have been discussing how hourly swings in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity markets are affecting the cattle business.
"These historic economic times are particularly problematic for U.S. ranchers, who typically market the majority of the calf crop once a year in autumn.
"While all agricultural commodity futures price charts have essentially followed the downward trends of crude oil and the stock market, the cattle market has been particularly hard-hit. The slowing U.S. economy that has taken its toll on wholesale beef prices, which is particularly important since 50 percent of U.S. beef consumption occurs away from home.
"Other key negative fundamentals include an incredible appreciation in
the U.S. dollar that has hurt our exports, a collapse in the Russian
economy that has hurt U.S. poultry exports and a sudden decline in U.S.
pork exports to China. It has been the combination of these factors that
has led to a sudden and steep drop in U.S. beef, pork and poultry prices
in recent weeks as these supplies back up into the domestic
"In Korea during this same time-frame, the currency "swing" in buying
power has been about 35 percent to the detriment of U.S. beef.
Cotton Program Details Unveiled by USDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The Commodity Credit Corporation has approved new regulations for implementing cotton programs authorized by the 2008 Farm Bill. Senator Saxby Chambliss, the Ranking Republican Member on the Senate Agriculture Committee, says - these changes-including modifications to the marketing loan program, changes to storage credits, and establishment of an economic assistance program for the domestic textile industry. He emphasized there will be no additional costs to the taxpayer at the request of the cotton industry. These rules will be published soon in the Federal Register.
These regulations govern several programs for the 2008 through 2012 crops of upland and extra-long staple cotton, specifically marketing assistance loans and loan deficiency payments; recourse seed cotton loans; and the ELS cotton competitiveness payments. The regulations also provide for a new program of economic assistance payments to domestic cotton users for upland cotton bales used starting August 1, 2008.
Starting with the 2008 crop, loan rate adjustments for location are eliminated for upland cotton, and other minor rate adjustments for leaf and micronaire are incorporated. The regulations also revise the calculation of the Adjusted World Price transportation adjustment, and reduce by 10-percent the maximum rates used for calculating any storage payments for the 2008 through 2011 crops. The AWP for upland cotton becomes effective today. The CCC will adjust the price by the average cost to market upland cotton to the Far East, including average transportation costs as determined from survey results. This adjustment will replace use of a 52-week rolling average calculation method.
Wheat Growers Meeting in Big D- Followed in by Feedlot Operators First of the Week
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~We will be spending time in Dallas and then later Grapevine over the next few days as we cover first the fall board meetings of the National Association of Wheat Growers- as well as the US Wheat Associates- then later on Monday and Tuesday of this coming week we will spend time with feedlot managers from Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma as the annual meeting of the Texas Cattle Feeders Association is happening at the Gaylord Resort in Grapevine.
Key areas of conversation for wheat producers will include Farm and other Domestic Policy, Food Aid, Biotechnology, International Trade and Hard White Wheat. The meetings are being held downtown at the Dallas Sheraton.
The TCFA meeting looks to be an outstanding event, as they will be discussing some of the hot issues facing cattlemen here at the end of 2008 and into 2009. One panel that should be especially interesting will be representatives of the major meat packers considering the challenges of the economic meltdown and its impact on beef demand and how they do business. Our TCFA coverage will be a service in part of Hudson Livestock Supplements and will include updates here in this email, on our radio repotrs as well as on the Cattle Industry Insights portion of our website.
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