Agricultural News
Oklahoma and Texas Wheat Crop Sizes Unchanged from May- Kansas Wheat Crop Size Increased by 8 Million Bushels
Thu, 10 Jun 2010 10:02:44 CDT
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.48 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the May 1 forecast but 3 percent below 2009. Based on June 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushel from last month and 2.4 bushels more than last year. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 31.8 million acres, unchanged from May 1.
Hard Red production is up 2 percent from a month ago to 979 million bushels. Soft Red production is up slightly from last month and now totals 284 million bushels. White production totals 219 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month. Of the White production total, 17.3 million bushels are Hard White and 202 million bushels are Soft White.
USDA left the Oklahoma and Texas wheat crops the same size as the May estimates- 128.7 million bushels in Oklahoma and 122.5 million bushels in Texas. Oklahoma's production is based upon 3.9 million harvested acres with an average of 33 bushels per acre. That's 11 bushels per acre more than produced in 2009, when Oklahoma had just a 77 million bushel crop. The Texas crop prediction is exactly double the size of the 2009 crop this harvest season- as the Lone Star state produced 61.25 million bushels last year.
The Kansas crop got bigger from May to June, based on an increase of one bushel per acre for the expected yield. The Kansas crop is now expected to be 352.6 million bushels- with harvest expected on 8.2 milllion acres and a yield per acre now projected statewide at 43 bushels.
Click here for the June 10, 2010 Crop Production Report from NASS at USDA.
Ed Richards talked with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities about this report, as well as the USDA Supply Demand numbers from the ERS. Click on the Listen Bar below to hear that conversation.
Click here for the full Supply and Demand numbers as released today by the ERS within USDA.
Some of the highlights included:
WHEAT:
U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are increased slightly this month as higher production is mostly offset by lower carryin. Winter wheat production is forecast 24 million bushels higher mostly on higher Hard Red Winter wheat. Winter wheat yields were raised in the central and northern Plains and in the Pacific Northwest. Beginning stocks are projected 20 million bushels lower as strong exports of wheat, flour, and products during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year boost 2009/10 exports 20 million bushels. Domestic use for 2010/11 is projected 10 million bushels higher as lower prices encourage more wheat feeding. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 6 million bushels lower, but remain up year-to-year and the highest since 1987/88. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, down from $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel last month. Recent declines in futures prices and lower-than-expected protein levels in Hard Red Winter wheat have sharply reduced price prospects for many producers.
COARSE GRAINS:
Projected U.S. feed grain production for 2010/11 is unchanged, but smaller carryin for corn, sorghum, and barley is expected to reduce domestic feed grain supplies. Corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected 110 million bushels higher for 2010/11, mostly in line with higher projected corn use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch for 2009/10. Higher use, combined with lower beginning stocks, drops projected 2010/11 corn ending stocks 245 million bushels to 1,573 million. The season- average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel. Projected 2010/11 farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.
OILSEEDS:
This month=s U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2010/11 include a small reduction in beginning and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush projections for 2009/10. Soybean crush for 2009/10 is raised 5 million bushels to 1.74 billion reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are projected at record 11.5 million short tons, almost 2 million above the previous record set in 1997/98. Lower domestic soybean meal consumption partly offsets the increase in exports. Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 185 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are also reduced 5 million bushels to 360 million.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly. The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter. Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second- quarter slaughter. Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the first quarter. Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally.
There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly but broiler production is unchanged. Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data. Broiler exports for 2010 are raised as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected. Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.
Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand has slackened.
Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered. Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month.
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