Agricultural News
Wheat Crop Estimates Released by USDA- Along with Monthly Supply Demand Numbers
Wed, 11 May 2011 8:53:52 CDT
A pair of reports coming from USDA on Wednesday morning: from NASS- we have the first estimate for the 2011 crop year for winter wheat. From the ERS- we have the monthly supply demand reports that dictate ending stocks for our major commodities and more.
To view the full reports- click here for the world Agricultural supply and demand estimates for May 2011.
For the May 2011 Crop Production numbers from the National Ag Statistics Service-including the 2011 winter wheat crop estimates-click here.
We have comments with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities on especially the Supply Demand numbers- click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear that conversation between Ed Richards and Tom Leffler.
The 2011 Winter Wheat Crop Estimate shows Oklahoma's wheat crop slightly higher than the Crop Report Conclusions of last Wednesday. USDA predicts an Oklahoma crop at 74.8 million bushels, based on 3.4 million acres harvested at 22 bushels per acre. The Kansas estimate was just under the Kansas estimate made by the scouts of last week- the USDA estimate at 261.8 million bushels while the Texas crop is well under earlier guesses we had heard for that state at just 46.8 million bushels now predicted- ALL BASED on May first data.
Here are some of the highlights from the Supply-Demand Report from USDA this morning:
WHEAT: The 2011/12 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carryin and production than in 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11, but remain the second highest in a decade. All-wheat production is projected at 2,043 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2010/11. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4 percent, as lower expected harvested area and yields in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas sharply reduce Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production. Partly offsetting is higher production of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat with a rebound in area and higher forecast yields. Spring wheat production is expected lower despite higher expected planted area for other spring wheat. A return to trend yields from record levels of the previous 2 years is expected to reduce durum and other spring wheat production. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2011/12 is projected down 7 percent as lower projected exports more than offset higher expected domestic use. Food use is projected at 945 million bushels, up 15 million from 2010/11 as flour extraction rates are expected to decline modestly from their historical highs during the past 3 years and consumption grows slightly driven by slowly rising population. Feed and residual use is projected at 220 million bushels, up 50 million from the 2010/11 projection as higher corn prices and a rebound in SRW production encourage more summer quarter wheat feeding.
U.S. exports are projected at 1,050 million bushels, down 225 million from the 2010/11 projection. Export prospects are sharply diminished with reduced HRW production and increasing competition as Black Sea production and exports are projected to rebound. U.S. ending stocks are expected to continue their decline from the recent high in 2009/10. At a projected 702 million bushels, 2011/12 ending stocks are expected down 137 million from 2010/11 and 274 million below 2009/10. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $6.80 to $8.20 per bushel, compared with $5.65 for 2010/11.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged from 2010/11 as record production is offset by the smallest beginning stocks in 15 years. Corn production for 2011/12 is projected at a record 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010/11 as a 4.0-million-acre increase in intended plantings and a recovery from last year's weather-reduced yields boost expected output. The 2011/12 corn yield is projected at 158.7 bushels per acre, 3.0 bushels below the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the slow pace of planting progress through early May. The 2011/12 yield is expected to be the third highest on record. Corn supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 14.3 billion bushels. This is below the 2009/10 record of 14.8 billion bushels, but up 75 million from 2010/11, as a 5-million-bushel increase in 2010/11 imports and a 50-million-bushel reduction in 2010/11 exports boost current year carryout this month.
Total U.S. corn use for 2011/12 is projected down 1 percent from 2010/11. Corn use for ethanol is projected up 50 million bushels reflecting slow expected growth in gasoline consumption and continued export demand for ethanol in the coming year. Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower than in 2010/11 reflecting increased availability of feed by-products from ethanol production and lower expected residual use as compared with the current year. U.S. corn exports for 2011/12 are projected down 100 million bushels from 2010/11 with larger foreign corn supplies. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 900 million bushels, up 170 million from the current year projection. Stocks remain historically tight with stocks-to-use projected at 6.7 percent compared with the current year projection of 5.4 percent. The season-average farm price is projected at a record $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel compared with the 2010/11 forecast of $5.10 to $5.40 per bushel.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 99.0 million tons, down 1 percent from 2010/11. Reduced soybean production accounts for most of the decline, but sunflowerseed, canola, and peanut production are all projected below last year's crops. Soybean production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from the 2010 crop mostly due to lower harvested area. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 43.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from 2010. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.47 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from 2010/11 as larger beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 170 million bushels, up 30 million from last month due to reduced exports.
Soybean crush for 2011/12 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, up fractionally from 2010/11 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal demand. Lower soybean meal export demand projected for 2011/12 is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use, leaving total soybean meal use down 1 percent from 2010/11. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 7 percent mostly due to biodiesel production gains. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up 1 billion from 2010/11 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.
With lower 2011/12 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010/11 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010/11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8 percent.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011/12 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared with $11.40 per bushel in 2010/11. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $350 to $380 per short ton, compared with $350 per ton for 2010/11. Soybean oil prices are projected at 56 to 60 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2010/11.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2011/12 include lower supplies and offtake relative to last season, resulting in higher ending stocks. With beginning stocks sharply lower than 2010/11, production is projected at 18.0 million bales, reducing the total supply. Projected production is based on planted area from the March Prospective Plantings, combined with above-average abandonment and slightly below-average yields due to severe drought conditions in the Southwest. Domestic mill use is projected at 3.8 million bales, the same as 2010/11, while exports are reduced due to lower U.S. supplies and increased foreign production. Ending stocks are projected at 2.5 million bales, 43 percent above 2010/11, but still the second-lowest level since 1990/91. The forecast range for the average price received by producers is a record 95.0 to 115.0 cents per pound.
The initial world cotton projections for 2011/12 show a sharp increase in production to a record 124.7 million bales, with India, China, and Pakistan accounting for 70 percent of the increase. A partial easing of supply constraints, combined with projected world economic growth, is anticipated to raise consumption 3.0 million bales, above the 3 preceding years but below the peak levels of 2006/07 and 2007/08. World trade is projected at 40 million bales, mainly reflecting higher import demand by China. World ending stocks are projected to rise to nearly 48 million bales, a 13-percent increase from the beginning level; however, the stocks-to-consumption ratio of 40 percent remains relatively tight.
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