Agricultural News
Dan Collins of NWS Climate Prediction Center Sees Only 5% Chance of Drought Ending By End of the Summer
Sun, 10 Jul 2011 16:56:04 CDT
The drought conditions that Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and Louisiana currently are struggling with have been caused, at least in part, by the La Nina water conditions in the central Pacific Ocean. Dan Collins with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says that while we have retreated from a La Nina earlier this year to a neutral set of water temperatures in the Pacific waters- several models suggest that we could swing back into a second La Nina this fall.
Meanwhile, it is highly likely that current drought conditions will not be broken the balance of this summer across Oklahoma and much of Texas, and the odds are not much better to see drought totally end in the region by the end of this calendar year.
Collins predicts that we are looking at just a five percent chance of the drought being totally broken between now and September 30th in Oklahoma and North Texas- and adds that there is only a one in four chance that drought conditions could be eliminated by the end of 2011.
And- extended dry conditions could easily push into the new year, if a La Nina redevelops during the fall.
During the US Drought Assessment Workshop that was held this past week in Austin, Texas, we talked with Dan Collins at length after his presentation- our conversation can be heard by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
Click here for the latest NOAA/NWS Drought Assessment.
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