Agricultural News
Major US Crop Production Estimates All Lower Than a Year Ago- Oklahoma Production Half or Less Than 2010
Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:40:09 CDT
Two reports were released on Wednesday morning by the USDA- looking at crop production in this country based on October first survey data as well as the supply and demand stats for this month, domestically and internationally. Farm Director Ron Hays visited with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities about the reports, as well as runors that China had bought US corn and soybeans
The USDA Crop Production numbers were released by the National Ag Statistics Service- click here for the full report.
Here's the summary of the numbers at the national level:
Corn production is forecast at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down slightly from the 2010 production estimate. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but down 4.7 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2005. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September and down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and down 2 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, down slightly from September and down 4 percent from 2010.
All cotton production is forecast at 16.6 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month but down 8 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 809 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.9 million 480-pound bales, down 10 percent from 2010. American Pima production, forecast at 737,200 bales, was carried forward from last month.
For Oklahoma- drought cut production of most of our agricultural crops in half in 2011 versus 2010- peanuts and canola were the two exceptions.
The spring planted peanut crop in Oklahoma- shows a crop that could total 64,400,000 pounds, versus 70,350,000 pounds in 2010- the difference is in the expected yield per acre- 200 pounds less per acre this year versus 2010- 3,800 pounds per acre is this year's estimate.
Winter canola production in Oklahoma is included in this October report- shows 93,000 acres being harvested this past June versus 56,000 acres a year ago, as the popularity of canola continues to skyrocket. Yield per acre saw the impact of drought in southwestern Oklahoma, with the statewide average falling from 1,600 pounds in 2010 to 1,200 pounds per acre this year. Total production for the state is 111,600,000 pounds this year, up from 89,600,000 pounds a year ago- Oklahoma is the second largest producing state in the country, behind the dominant producing state in the US, North Dakota.
Other spring planted crops are well below 2010 production levels this year:
Cotton- 105,000 bales this year versus 422,000 bales a year ago.
Grain Sorghum- 2,990,000 bushels in 2011 versus 13,000,000 bushels a year ago.
Soybeans- 4,250,000 bushels in 2011 versus 11,875,000 a year ago.
Corn- 19,550,000 bushels in 2011 versus 44,200,000 bushels in 2010.
Alfalfa Hay- 390,000 tons produced this year versus 1,023,000 tons in 2010
All other hay- 2,430,000 tons harvested in 2011 versus 4,930,000 tons raised and baled in 2010.
Sunflowers- 6,970,000 pounds in 2011 versus 2010 total production in the state of 17,180,000 pounds.
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Also released by USDA on Wednesday morning was the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates as released by the by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Click here for the PDF of the full supply demand report from USDA as released October 12, 2011.
A few of the highlights of the report include the following:
WHEAT:
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 76 million bushels as lower expected domestic use and exports more than offset reduced production.
U.S. exports for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels lower with HRS reduced 40 million and HRW reduced 10 million.
COARSE GRAINS:
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower forecast production. Corn production is forecast 64 million bushels lower with planted and harvested area lowered 385,000 acres and 452,000 acres, respectively. The national average corn yield forecast is unchanged this month at 148.1 bushels per acre.
OILSEEDS:
U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 25 million based on lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is lowered 147,000 acres to 73.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels. Sunflowerseed and canola production are projected lower this month while peanuts and cottonseed production are projected higher.
COTTON:
The 2011/12 U.S. cotton forecasts feature lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 52,000 bales, as increases for several States, especially Georgia, more than offset a decrease in estimated production for Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced due to lower foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.9 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio of 25.5 percent is higher than the previous two seasons but well below the 5-year average.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised, reflecting higher beef, pork, and turkey production, but lower broiler production. The increase in beef production is largely due to higher expected cow slaughter as drought conditions in much of the Southern Plains and high hay prices will likely keep slaughter high. Higher than expected thirdquarter commercial hog slaughter supports the higher pork production forecast. Broiler production is reduced as lower egg sets point to a sharp reduction in later-year bird slaughter. However, continued relatively heavy bird weights result in an increase in expected third-quarter production.
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