National Cotton Council Predicts Ten Percent Fewer Cotton Acres in Oklahoma for 2012Mon, 13 Feb 2012 04:48:53 CST
A significant reduction in 2012 cotton acreage is expected for Oklahoma, according to the National Cotton Council producer planting intention survey reported on at the NCC's annual meeting held this past weekend in Fort Worth, Texas.
Oklahoma acreage is showing a 10 percent decrease as acres are moving to wheat. Acreage is expected to drop under the 400,000 acre level to 374,000 acres likely to be planted this spring. Southwest growers are indicating the smallest percentage decline with 5.3 percent fewer acres, lowering the regional total to 7.62 million acres. In aggregate, Kansas growers indicated essentially no net change in cotton area as the state total is expected to retain at 80,000 acres. For Texas, respondents intend to reduce area by 5.1 percent. The relatively small drop in area could reflect the ongoing drought concerns and the need to maintain acres in a relatively drought-tolerant crop.
In the three southwest cotton-producing states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, Oklahoma producers, who had 415, 000 acres of cotton last year, intend to plant 374, 000 acres this year, according to the survey. Kansas' acreage will remain the same at 80,000 acres. Texas' acreage will decline only a little over five percent with 7,166,000 acres estimated to be planted in 2012.
Across the cotton-growing area of the US, it is predicted 13.34 million acres of cotton will be planted this year, down 7.5 percent from 2011, while extra-long staple (ELS) cotton planting intentions of 287,000 acres represents 6.4 percent decline.
With assumed above-average abandonment in Texas and Oklahoma and all other states set at historical averages, total upland and ELS harvested area would be 10.88 million acres, which is 20.3 percent below planted area. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of 18.3 million bales, compared to 2011's total production of 15.67 million bales.
NCC Vice President Gary Adams said, "'Final production will be very dependent on weather developments, particularly in the soutbwestern US. If conditions worsen, we could see the US crop be two million bales lower than early-season expectations."
The NCC survey, mailed in mid-December, 2011, to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked for their intended 2012 cotton acreage as well as for their intended planting of other crops in 2012. Survey responses were collected through mid-January. Adams noted, "The expected drop in cotton area is consistent with current market signals. Since 2011, cotton prices have weakened relative to competing crops like corn, soybeans and peanuts."
Survey respondents throughout the Southeast indicated a decline in acreage in all states. In percentage terms, the largest declines are expected to be seen in Alabama and Virginia down 17.6 percent and 16.0 percent, respectively. In Alabama, cotton acres are shifting to corn, soybeans and peanuts. In Virginia, cotton acres are shifting into soybeans. Georgia’s expected acreage is off 12.7 percent as corn and peanuts are the beneficiaries of the reduced cotton acreage. Growers in North Carolina indicated an 11.3 percent decline as corn, soybeans and peanuts are increasing area. Both Florida and South Carolina are reporting intentions 10.0 percent below year-ago levels. In those states, cotton acres are reported to be moving into peanuts and soybeans.
In the Mid-South, survey results show that growers intend to plant 2.30 million acres, a decrease of 6.9 percent. With the exception of Missouri, all states indicate fewer acres of cotton relative to 2011. Cotton acres in Missouri are up slightly at 2.3 percent. Of the remaining states, Louisiana is showing the largest decline at 17.7 percent. Results indicate a move to both corn and soybeans. With a decline of 9.0 percent, Arkansas shows the next largest drop, with those acres moving to corn. Declines in Mississippi and Tennessee are 6.5 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively. In both states, growers are opting for more acres of corn at the expense of cotton.
All states in the West region show decreases in upland plantings, with the region as a whole down 10.4 percent. In Arizona, intended area of 222,000 acres represents an 11.3 percent decrease from the previous year. The expected decrease in acreage is coming in response to reduced price expectations and increased competition from wheat. At the time of the survey, California farmers intend to plant 169,000 acres (-7.4 percent), with the decrease due to a shift into specialty crops. California’s actual plantings could ultimately be dictated by water costs and availability. New Mexico is reporting intentions of 58,000 acres, down 15.0 percent.
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