Agricultural News
USDA Looks in Crystal Ball- Sees 14.8 Billion Bushel Corn Crop- Oklahoma Wheat Crop Pegged at 154.8 Million Bushels
Thu, 10 May 2012 08:21:23 CDT
The US Department of Agriculture, as expected, is predicting a much larger winter wheat crop than that produced in the midst of drought conditions a year ago. According to the USDA, "Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 2011. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 35.6 million acres, up 10 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from last year.
"Hard Red Winter, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up 32 percent from 2011. Soft Red Winter, at 428 million bushels, is down 6 percent from last year. White Winter is down 9 percent from last year and now totals 233 million bushels. Of this total, 14.1 million bushels are Hard White and 219 million bushels are Soft White."
Meanwhile, this morning's Supply Demand numbers suggest a huge corn crop in 2012 is on it's way- guessing a massive 14.8 billion bushel crop could be produced when combines roll later this year.
The 2012 Oklahoma Hard Red Winter wheat crop is 119% larger than the 2011 crop- USDA predicts 154.8 million bushels will be harvested this year versus just 70.4 million bushels in 2011. USDA gets that number by the expectation of 4.3 million acres will be harvested for grain at a 36 bushel per acre clip.
Kansas is expected to produce a 40% larger wheat crop than in 2011- 387 million bushels is the prediction of USDA- based on nine million acres to be harvested at 43 bushels per acre.
Click here for Crop Production numbers as released on Thursday morning by USDA.
Meanwhile, Tom Leffler with Leffler Commodities says the corn numbers within the supply demand numbers released by the Economic Research Service of the USDA for the World Ag Outlook Board have caught his eye. USDA reports "U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 416.3 million tons, up 16 percent from 2011/12 with higher area and production for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. A projected 5.1-millionacre increase in harvested area and higher expected yields, compared with 2011/12, sharply boost production prospects. The 2012/13 corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence. Despite the lowest expected carryin in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12."
The agency adds that "Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 50 million bushels to 851 million with lower expected June-August feed and residual disappearance. The large year-to-year increase in winter wheat production and attractive prices for wheat relative to corn are expected to raise summer wheat feeding. Record mid- April corn plantings and early May crop emergence boost prospects for early 2012-crop corn usage before the September 1 beginning of the 2012/13 marketing year. As in recent years, this late-summer new-crop usage is expected to displace old-crop usage and boost carryout."
Leffler adds that the Supply Demand report is very friendly to soybeans, and he expects soybean prices will be sharply higher in the Thursday trading session. He expects there will be pressure on corn prices and wheat supply demand numbers may point to a higher opening, despite the large wheat production numbers released by NASS.
To view the World Agricultural Supply and Demand numbers, click here for the full report.
Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear our conversation with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities and his take on this morning's reports.
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