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Agricultural News


No End In Sight for Drought; Conditions May Worsen In 2013

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 11:22:41 CDT

No End In Sight for Drought; Conditions May Worsen In 2013






















In his latest Mesonet Ticker report, Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus says that although Oklahoma has experienced cooler temperatures in the last couple of weeks, the real news is that that the state's two-year-long drought may be worsening.


It's been awhile since Oklahoma has seen a month like October. Eleven months, to be exact. Not since September 2011 had Oklahoma seen a month where the statewide average temperature finished on the cold side of normal. In fact, 25 of the 30 months prior to October were warmer than normal, starting with April 2010. According to data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, October became the 26th coolest on record with a statewide average of 59.7 degrees, 1.6 degrees below normal.


Although the heat may have faded during October, the dry weather did not. The Mesonet's statewide average rainfall total of 1.1 inches fell more than 2 inches below normal and ranked the month as the 15th driest October on record. Eighteen of the Mesonet's 120 stations recorded less than a tenth of an inch of rain for the month and 66 measured less than an inch. The Cheyenne and Retrop stations recorded no precipitation during October. On the bright side, twelve stations recorded at least 3 inches of rain during the month with Oilton leading the way at 4.7 inches.


By October 31, it had been up to 34 days since parts of northern and western Oklahoma had seen a tenth of an inch of rainfall in a single day, and as many as 48 days without at least a quarter of an inch.


Although parts of the state have been in continual drought for more than two years, most of the state's current drought woes can be traced back to deficits beginning in May 2012. The May-October statewide average of 12.72 inches fell more than 9 inches below normal and ranked as the fourth driest such period on record. For the important wheat producing area of north central Oklahoma, the statistics are even more dismal with deficits of more than 13 inches. The May-October rainfall total of 8.1 inches in that part of the state is the second lowest on record for that span.


The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, released on Nov. 1, showed that extreme-to-exceptional drought still covered more than two-thirds of the state. Virtually all of Oklahoma was covered by severe-to-exceptional drought. The Drought Monitor's intensity scale slides from moderate-severe-extreme-exceptional, with exceptional being the worst category.


There is little relief showing up in the short term, and the state looks mostly dry through the first week of November. Farther out, the November outlooks from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show increased odds for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across the state.


The development of a significant El Niño event - the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters that can sometimes bring the southern United States cooler and wetter weather from late fall into early spring - appears less likely at this point. The lack of an expected boost from that phenomenon just as the Southern Plains enters its driest part of the calendar leads to a fairly pessimistic U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook from the CPC. The outlook sees our current drought persisting or perhaps even intensifying through January 2013.


Should that outlook come to fruition, the state would see greatly enhanced odds of entering next spring with significant drought in place.



   


No End In Sight for Drought; Conditions May Worsen In 2013
   

 

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