Agricultural News
Randy Blach with CattleFax Remains Convinced Herd Expansion Will Eventually Come
Mon, 05 Nov 2012 03:49:35 CST
One of the leading cattle market watchers in the country believes that beef herd expansion is coming, but Randy Blach with CattleFax told the recent Texas Cattle Feeders Association Convention that increase in the beef cow herd in the US may still be a year or two away.
"The herd is still getting smaller and we think it will continue to shrink a little more on in to 2014 and 2015 but I would say by January of 2015, we will see the herd stabilize and grow assuming it rains. And obviously that is a big assumption, but we believe we are still on track to see an expansion, or we will see the continued change from La Niña back to El Niño and we should see more moisture flow as a result of that.
"Fed slaughter is down 950,000 head for the year and yet heifer slaughter is down over half of that. Normally heifer slaughter would comprise 36% to 37% of our total slaughter. That's telling you that producers in this industry are trying to hold the females together. Beef cow slaughter is down nearly 500,000 head."
Prices are going to continue to be at record highs. "I told you they'd be record high in 2012 and we probably would make and money and that's what happened. That's going to be a tough situation over the next 12-18 months as we go through this situation of declining numbers to pick and choose from."
Weights have been huge according to Blach. "When we came into the year, I thought we were pretty aggressive forecasting that our weights would be up 15 pounds. They are going to be up 17 to 18 pounds. Obviously you look at the increase with productivity, but the bottom line is that four animals today produce as much beef as five animals did 20 years ago."
Blach said cattlemen ought to be commended. "With what you've been able to do with productivity increases, better nutrition, how we've learned to feed cattle, animal husbandry, all of those things, I think we have a phenomenal story to tell. These productively increases are going to be important with population increases and feeding the growing population.
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