Agricultural News
OSU's Jeff Edwards Talks End of Year Rainfall and the Impact on 2013 Wheat Crop
Wed, 02 Jan 2013 05:16:14 CST
Oklahoma State University's Extension Small Grains Specialist Dr. Jeff Edwards offered his comments in his Wheat Blog on New Year's Day about the rainfall the last couple of days of 2012 that rolled across Oklahoma- including across much of the state's wheat belt. Here are his comments(and his reference to the map above):
"It finally rained! Rainfall totals in western Oklahoma (0.1 to 0.3 inches) will not put a dent in the drought, but were probably enough to induce germination of seed resting in dry soil. Oklahoma weather is extremely variable, and who knows when temperatures will warm enough to spur along the germination process. If we retain the recent moisture and have something close to a "normal" year, it is likely that we will see wheat popping through the soil in mid February. I compared February sown winter wheat to spring wheat in a trial at Newkirk, OK a few years ago. The winter wheat made about 15 bu/ac and the spring wheat made about 20 bu/ac. This was in a favorable year that was not plagued by drought. Given current weather trends, a best case scenario for February emerging winter wheat is 50% of normal yield. A worst case scenario is 0 - 10% of normal yield. If I were wagering, I would place my money on 20 - 30% of normal yield potential.
"The rainfall might be enough to help emerged wheat west of I-35 survive, but that is about it. Soil moisture is still insufficient to produce a recovery and I would still proceed cautiously regarding inputs on these acres. The rain might have indeed been too little, too late for these acres. IF soil moisture gets recharged by mid February and IF we have a mild spring these acres could have some secondary tillering and make a moderate recovery; however, the odds are against this."
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