Agricultural News
USDA Releases Latest Baseline Assumptions- See Falling Feed Grain Prices and Rebuilding Beef Cow Numbers
Mon, 11 Feb 2013 12:43:57 CST
USDA Agricultural Projections to the year 2022, were released on Monday morning, February 11. These assumptions provide longrun projections for the farm sector for the next 10 years. These annual projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
Important assumptions for the projections include the following:
Global economic growth reflects steady gains.
Increases in world population continue to slow. Growth in most developing countries remains above that in the rest of the world.
Population gains in developing countries--along with higher incomes, increased urbanization, and expansion of the middle class--are particularly important for growth in global food demand.
Continued global expansion of biofuels further adds to world demand for agricultural products.
Key results in the projections include the following:
Prices for major crops decrease in the early years of the projections as global production responds to recent high prices. In the case of corn, the farm price of corn drops below five dollars a bushel in a couple of years to an average of $4.10 for the 2014/15 crop year- and it never gets back above the five dollar mark again for the next seven years that follow.
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall in 2013 in response to lower producer returns and drought in the Southern Plains of the United States over the past two years. Meat production then increases in response to improved returns and improved forage supplies.
World economic growth and demand for biofuels combine to support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural products.
Following the near-term declines, prices for corn, wheat, oilseeds, and many other crops remain historically high.
After declines from record levels projected in 2013, the values of U.S. agricultural exports and farm cash receipts rise through the rest of the decade. Production expenses also rise beyond 2015, but net farm income remains historically high.
Retail food price increases average less than the overall rate of inflation in 2014-22, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector that limit meat price increases.
Beef Cow numbers don't line up with the reality of the January 1, 2013 Inventory Report- as the baseline assumptions show almost 500,000 more cows this year than the Inventory Report actually was able to account for. The baseline assumptions show the low water mark for Beef Cows at 29.5 million cows in 2014- and then a gradual year by year increase in the beef cow population to a 32.472 million head by the year 2022.
To review all of the numbers released by USDA- you will need to be able to open Excel spreadsheet files- click here for the web location where you can select the categories you wish to see the numbers projected out for ten years.
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Top Agricultural News
More Headlines...
