Agricultural News
Beef Cow Slaughter Falls to Levels Under One Year Ago- Jim Robb of the LMIC
Thu, 12 Sep 2013 21:16:31 CDT
According to Jim Robb with the Livestock Market Information Center, U.S. beef cow slaughter has recorded large year-on-year declines during recent weeks, a trend that is expected to continue. Even with forecast year-on-year declines during the balance of this year, U.S. Federally Inspected beef cow slaughter this year will be below 2012's (down 125,000 to 200,000 head). However, given the percentage of the January 1st beef cow inventory as reported by USDA-NASS that will be slaughtered this year, there is only a small probability of the number of U.S. beef cows growing year-on-year as of January 1, 2014.
In the second quarter of this year (April through June), U.S. beef cow slaughter was up 88,000 head or 12% compared to a year ago, which was surprising large given the drought-forced herd liquidations that occurred in 2012. As the summer quarter progressed this year, national pasture and range conditions recorded significant year-on-year improvement and beef cow slaughter levels have dropped from 2012's levels.
Most U.S. plants are Federally Inspected (FI), those plants are required to report weekly slaughter data, which is collected by USDA-FSIS and then complied, checked, summarized, etc., by USDA-NASS. In late June (week ending June 29th), FI beef cow slaughter was 3% below the same week in 2012. That was only the second year-on-year drop in the prior 16 weeks. Since late June, beef cow slaughter has been below a year ago. Importantly, year-on-year declines have become much more pronounced during recent weeks.
Between early July and mid-August weekly FI beef cow slaughter ranged from 5% to 9% below 2012's. In the last two weeks of report data, the year-on-year declines were 13% and 14%, respectively. For the balance of 2013, forecasts call for 10% or larger declines from 2012's levels. Those declines will support cull cow prices above 2012's for the balance of this year. Seasonally, cull cow prices normally erode into the fall quarter of the year; this year that price erosion is expected to be less than normal.
Jim Robb talks about Cow Slaughter on today's Beef Buzz.
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