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Dearth of Data Due to Government Shutdown Will Affect Research for Years to Come, Peel Says

Mon, 14 Oct 2013 10:58:33 CDT

Dearth of Data Due to Government Shutdown Will Affect Research for Years to Come, Peel Says
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, writes in the latest Cow-Calf Newsletter:


The lack of data that has accompanied the federal government shutdown has many impacts directly on cattle and beef industry participants. Many business transactions depend on publically reported markets for pricing points that determine transaction values. Lack of data also has many impacts on market analysts who synthesize a great deal of data into information about current and future market conditions for the benefit of the beef industry. I monitor many different data all the time but at specific times or in specific market conditions, some data is more critical for me than others. The following is a partial list of data that is particularly important from my perspective at this point in time.


Feeder Cattle Auction Data
Feeder cattle auction data that is missed is lost forever. With historically low feeder cattle supplies and counter-seasonal strength in prices prior to the shutdown, feeder prices at the current time are particularly important. October and November have the largest volumes of feeder cattle trade of the year and typically seasonal low prices. The lack of market data is particularly critical to cow-calf producers selling weaned calves and stocker and feedlot producers determining when to buy.


Cattle on Feed Report
Missing a single monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report is often not especially important. However, the October COF report is particularly important due to falling feedlot inventories and expectations for sharply lower fed marketing late in the year and into 2014. Perhaps most importantly, the October COF report would include the quarterly on-feed breakdown by animal class. The number of heifers on feed was expected to provide valuable indications of heifer retention and herd rebuilding. Sadly, the data will likely not be provided or, if late, will be difficult to interpret.


Slaughter Data
Daily and weekly slaughter and carcass weight data provide some of the most timely production data in the beef industry. Beef production is projected to drop sharply for the reminder of the year so monitoring slaughter changes is critical. Carcass weights may offset or exaggerate changes in cattle slaughter to cause more or less change in beef production. There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of the Zilmax withdrawal from the market and the lack of slaughter and carcass weight data is compounding the uncertainty. Additionally, weekly cow and heifer slaughter data provide another clue to the magnitude and pace herd rebuilding.    


Boxed Beef Prices
For many months the growing question of beef demand has occupied industry participants and analysts. Daily monitoring of boxed beef prices and the Choice/Select spread is the best timely measure of beef demand. After peaking at record levels in May, the Choice cutout is expected to push past $200/cwt. again in the coming weeks. The ability of beef wholesale and retail prices to achieve and maintain new record levels, perhaps this fall, is of paramount importance to the entire beef industry and boxed beef price data is essential to assess what is happening.


These are only a few of the many important data that facilitate more efficient beef market behavior-data on feed market conditions, international trade and a host of other factors is badly needed. It should also be noted that some of the impacts of data loss will not go away when market prices and statistics are once again available. Research relies on comprehensive data sets over time and the loss of some data will affect agricultural research for years.



   

 

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