Agricultural News
Rich Nelson of Allendale Explains Latest WASDE Numbers from USDA
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 15:23:41 CST
Allendale's Rich Nelson offers the following analysis of the three major grains from the Tuesday morning WASDE report from USDA. He also provides his insights in the video below- just click on the PLAY button in the video box.
Corn:
"As expected, there was no revision made to the November corn production numbers. That will be seen on the next update set for January 10. For demand there was not a lot of surprise with the 50 million bushel increase in exports. This fits in well with the strong pace of sales made in recent weeks. The real surprise was the 50 million bushel increase in the corn for ethanol category. While the recent ethanol production pace has been very strong, at 9% over last year, most analysts thought the next move would be down. Keep in mind the EPA is in the middle of its 60 day comment period on the proposal to lower the RFS. The grain trade will likely expect USDA to lower this number after the comment period ends. Of minor news a small 5 million bushel increase in imports was added to the mix. Ending stocks, which were 1.887 billion bushels, were lowered to 1.792. It is very likely the trade will not price in a 1.8 billion bushel stock number as there are expectations for a production increase on the January report. Whether 1.8 or even 1.9 keep in mind these numbers are more than double last year's level."
Soybeans:
"Changes made this month were very reasonable. Just like with corn there was no change to production. Based on the very strong export sales pace USDA chose to increase their export estimate by 25 million bushels. That could even increase the next month or two if these recent sales continue into January. Given the strong interest from soybean processors USDA also chose to raise crush by 5 million bushels. The offset here was a 10 million bushel increase for imports. As a whole, the decline in ending stocks from 170 million bushels down to 150 was expected."
Wheat:
"All demand numbers were left unchanged compared with last month. We cannot argue too much with USDA decision not to touch exports. Keep in mind it is only in corn and soybeans that exports were raging. Ending stocks were lowered from 575 million to now 565."
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