Kim Anderson Says Wheat Prices May Continue to Slide, in Preview of this Week's SUNUP ProgramFri, 03 Jan 2014 11:29:40 CST
Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Marketing Specialist, says producers need to watch wheat prices closely over the next few months.
"Since the 1st of December, cash wheat prices are down 71 cents. Since October the 23rd, cash wheat prices are down $1.35. If you're watching the Kansas City Board of Trade March or July contracts, both of these have support at $6.35, about where that price is right now."
If futures markets break that $6.35 mark by Monday, Anderson says, the next support level is $6.
"The good news over the last couple of months is that the basis has held steady, around a minus 20 cents below the Kansas City contract or, if you're looking at the harvest contract or the harvest forward contracts, a minus 40 cents. There's been no change in the basis, essentially, since harvest of 2013."
Anderson says that we saw an 80-cent rally in September due to dry conditions in Australia before harvest, but that quickly evaporated when yields came in higher than expected. He said that a record number of planted acres in India and export sales from ample government stockpiles will further pressure wheat prices throughout the spring.
Anderson expects a price of $6 per bushel by harvest of 2014.
"If we have a relatively large crop, that price could be as low as $5. If we have a short crop, it could get up around, maybe, $7."
You can hear more of Anderson's analysis on wheat markets by clicking on the LISTEN BAR at the bottom of this story. You can also hear more on this week's SUNUP program which will also feature:
-- A look the wheat breeding program with Brett Carver, Jeff Edwards and Eric DeVuyst.
-- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains the effects of grazing wheat on breeding cattle.
-- SUNUP looks inside the operation at Foundation Seed with Jeff Wright and Brett Carver.
-- Wheat demonstration plots are examined next with Jeff Edwards and Jeff Bedwell.
-- In Shop Stop, Wayne Kiner and Randy Taylor discuss proper disposal of hazardous materials.
-- Finally, SUNUP previews the year to come as Extension celebrates 100 years.
Catch SUNUP Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV or online at: http://www.sunup.okstate.edu or on Youtube at: http://www.youtube.com/sunuptv
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