Worst Wheat Crop Since 1957- Oklahoma Crop Projected at 62.7 Million Bushels by USDAFri, 09 May 2014 17:53:51 CDT
The first estimates for Oklahoma's 2014 wheat crop were issued today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The area for harvest was set at 3.3 million acres, with a yield of 19.0 bushels per acre deriving a forecast production of 62.7 million bushels. Winter wheat conditions continued to decline into the first week of May, 2014 with 73 percent falling into the poor to very poor condition rating.
Nationally, Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.40 billion bushels, down 9 percent from 2013. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 43.1 bushels per acre, down 4.3 bushels from last year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 746 million bushels, is up slightly from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 447 million bushels, is down 21 percent from 2013. White Winter, at 209 million bushels, is down 7 percent from a year ago. Of the White Winter production, 10.9 million bushels are Hard White and 198 million bushels are Soft White.
Click here for the May 2014 Crop production report from USDA.
The corn and wheat markets both fell sharply after the report's release and commodity broker Tom Leffler said it is not clear why. He said traders will be taking a closer look at the reports over the weekend and Friday's closing numbers could easily reverse when markets reopen Sunday night. You can listen to his analysis by clicking on the LISTEN BAR at the bottom of this story.
Meanwhile, lots of key numbers made up the monthly WASDE report from the Economic Research Service of the USDA. This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2014/15. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2015 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highlytentative. Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production are from the May 9 Crop Production report. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project 2014/15 harvested acreage and yield are noted in each table.
Looking at the highlights of several key crops:
U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projec ted down 10 percent fr om 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expec ted lower. Supplies for the new ma rketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is projected at 1,963 milli on bushels, down 8 percent from last year. The all wheat yield is projected at 42.7 bushels per acre, down 4.5 bus hels from the 2013/14 record.
The survey-based forecast for 2014/15 all winter wheat production is down 9 percent on the year with the harvested-to-planted ratio just above last year’s 11-year low and the yield forecast at its lowest level since 2007/08. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lowe r area and yields for Soft Red Winter wheat. This year’s lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat yield forecast is offset by higher harvested area, leaving HRW production just above last year’s very low level. Continued drought and April freeze events have sharply reduced yield pr ospects for HRW wheat. White Winter wheat production is forecast lower on the year with reduced area and yields. Spring wheat production for 2014/15 is projec ted to decline 6 percent as higher area is more than offset by lower projected yields. Durum yi elds last year were well above trend and other spring yields were record high.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2014/15 is projected down 11 percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected to fall with ti ghter supplies and higher pr ices. Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million bushels as abundant feed grai n supplies and lower feed grain prices limit wheat feeding during t he summer months. Partly offsetti ng are a 10-million-bushel increase in domestic food use and a 2-million-bushel increase in seed use.
Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 950 million bushels, down 235 million from this month’s higher 2013/14 projecti on, as large supplies in other major exporting countries and tight dom estic supplies of HRW wheat limit U.S. shipments.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are pr ojected at a record 403.3 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013/14 mostly on larger corn beginning st ocks. Corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013/14 record with higher expected yields more than offsetting the year-to- year reduction in planted area. The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013/14, based on a weather adjusted yield trend model and assumi ng normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather.
U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projec ted 2 percent lower than in 2013/14. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013/14. Exports are pr ojected 200 million bushels lower than this month’s higher proj ection for 2013/14 as larger expect ed foreign supplies and lower import demand limit U.S. shipments. Corn used to pr oduce ethanol in 2014/15 is ex pected to be unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expec ted to remain flat in 2015. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from t he 2013/14 projection. With the la rger carryout, the season-average farm price is projected at $3. 85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4. 50 to $4.80 per bushel for 2013/14.
Global corn trade for 2014/15 is projected lower with imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico. Corn exports for 2014/15 are projected lower for Ukraine and the United St ates. Exports, however, are projected higher for Argentina and Paraguay. World corn consumption is proj ected at a record 965.8 million tons, up 17.0 million from 2013/ 14 on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and Japan. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projec ted at 181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and at a 15-year high.
U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 107.9 m illion tons, up 11 percent from 2013/14. Higher soybean production account s for most of the increase. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Yield is projected at a trend level of 45. 2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013. Supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4 percent from 2013/14 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2014/15 is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013/14 mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean m eal consumption. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected up only slightly with Argent ina soybean meal exports accounting for most of the gains in global soybean meal trade. U.S. soybean exports are pr ojected at 1.625 billion bus hels, up 25 million from 2013/14 on record supplies and competitive prices. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013/14, increasing t he stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6 percent. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013/14. So ybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013/14. Soy bean oil prices are forecast at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013/14.
Livestock, Poultry and Milk
Total U.S. red meat and poultr y production in 2015 is projected to be above 2014 as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets cont inued declines in beef production. Pork production is ex pected to increase as producers re spond to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) by increasing farrowings and f eeding hogs to heavier weights. However, a slow recovery in growth in pigs per li tter is expected to constrain increases in availability of market hogs in 2015. Broiler and turkey production are forecast hi gher as lower forecast feed prices and record 2014 wholesale broiler and turkey prices encourage expansion. However beef production is forecast lower as a declining beef cattle inventory and potential heifer retention during late 2014 and into 2015 is expected to limit cattle placements in late 2014 and into 2015. Thus, despite expectations of heavier slaughter weights, tight supplies of fed cattle for slaughter and reduced cow slaughter will result in lower beef production. Egg production for 2015 is forecast to expand as producers respond to lower feed costs and record 2014 egg prices. For 2014, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from last month on lower pork and broiler production. Pork supp lies reflect limited availability of hogs due to the impacts of PEDv on pigs per litter. However, t he decline in hog numbers may be partly offset by heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on the pace of slaughter and a slow increase in egg sets and chicks placed. Beef production is about unchanged from last month. Turkey production is increased slightly based on the current pace of slaughter. Egg production for 2014 is raised as higher table egg production more than offsets reduced hatching egg production.
Lower U.S. beef production is expec ted to push beef exports lower and imports higher in 2015. Pork exports are forecast higher in 2015 and imports are fo recast lower as production increases. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expanded supp lies and continued strength in foreign demand. The 2014 beef export forecast is lowered from last month on March export data. Imports are forecast higher on strong processing-grade beef demand and tight supplies of domestic pr ocessing beef. Pork exports are unchanged from last month as high March exports are expected to be followed by lower exports later in the year. Broiler and turkey exports are adjusted to reflect March trade data.
For 2015, fed cattle prices are forecast above 2014 as supplies continue to tighten and demand for beef remains strong. Hog prices are forecast lower t han 2014 as hog supplies increase. However, broiler and turkey prices are forecast higher despite increas ed production as demand remains firm in the face of relatively tight red meat supplies. Egg prices are forecast lower on increased production. For 2014, the fed cattle price forecast is lowered from last mont h as prices for mid-2014 are reduced. Hog prices are up from last month on tight supplies. Broiler prices are higher as prices remain strong. Turkey prices are unchanged. Egg prices are forecast higher on strong to date prices.
Click here for today's WASDE report from USDA.
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