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Agricultural News

USDA Updates Ending Stocks, Bearish for Market

Fri, 11 Jul 2014 17:14:07 CDT

USDA Updates Ending Stocks, Bearish for Market

Numbers across the board where bearish for the commodity market in the monthly crop production report. That's according to analyst Rich Nelson of Allendale.   In the July 11 US Department of Agriculture report is a combination of new crop acreage and grain stocks, which is incorporated into full year balance sheet.

USDA raised its estimate of corn ending stocks from lat month's 1.146 billion bushels to now 1.246 billion bushels. Nelson says that was a little higher than trade estimates of 1.232. USDA also raised new crop ending stocks from 1.726 billion bushels to now 1.801 billion bushels. That was slightly higher than pre-report trade estimate.   

USDA left the average corn yield unchanged at 165.3 bushels. Nelson says the trade will assume yield will be increased on the August report, therefore ending stocks could increase to 1.9 billion bushels.

USDA raised ending stocks for both old and new crop soybeans. USDA raised ending stock from 125 million bushels last month to now 140 million bushels. That was higher than trade estimates. New crop soybean ending stocks were raised from last month's 325 million bushels to 415 million bushels. Nelson says that was close to trade estimates.

USDA also increased ending stocks for wheat from 574 million bushels. Nelson says USDA raised ending stocks to 660 million bushels, which was higher than the trade estimate of 591 million bushels.

Nelson says across the board these numbers can be viewed as bearish, the big question is whether these numbers have already been priced into the market.   

Click here for the full report.

To watch Rich Nelson's full video analysis of today's numbers, click in the video box below.



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