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Agricultural News

Leffler Reaction to Lower Cattle on Feed, US Cattle Inventory Numbers

Fri, 25 Jul 2014 18:59:55 CDT

Leffler Reaction to Lower Cattle on Feed, US Cattle Inventory Numbers

No surprises in the latest Cattle on Feed report and the July Cattle Inventory reports that came out from the US Department of Agriculture on Friday. Both reports came in close to market expectations according to Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities. Leffer says the latest Cattle on Feed report was "neutral to bearish", coming in close to expectations, so he does not look for a big impact on the market on Monday morning. You can hear his analysis by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.

The July first Cattle on Feed numbers came in at 98 percent, the trade was looking for 98.2 percent. This means 10.127 million head of cattle are on feed. That's 1.4 percent below the five year average. Nebraska was up four percent over a year ago, Kansas down six percent and Texas was down three percent.

"This is the lowest July on feed number the past four years," Leffler said. "It's also the lowest on feed number on a month since back on September 2013."

June placements came in a little lower than expected, coming in at 94 percent. The trade was looking for 95.6 percent. This means 1.455 million head of cattle were placed on feed. This 8.3 percent lower than the five year average. This is also the lowest June placement of the past five years and the lowest placement month since February 2013. Nebraska placements were up 14 percent, Kansas was down ten percent and Texas was down 13 percent versus a year ago.

When you look at the weight breakdown of placements, Leffer says the under 600 pound group was up 27 percent versus a year ago, 600 - 699 pound group down 8.4 percent, 700 - 799 pound group was down 22 percent and the 800 plus pound group was down 18.3 percent versus a year ago.

June marketings came in at 98 percent, the trade was looking for 98.1 percent. This means we marketed 1.847 million head of cattle. This is 7 percent below the five year average. This is also the second largest marketing month for 2014. Kansas marketing were up eight percent, Texas down 12 percent and Nebraska was up four percent compared to a year ago.

Oklahoma's inventory is down 16 percent from last year. Oklahoma's inventory of cattle on feed totaled 255 thousand head on July 1, down four percent since June. Placements during June were 37 thousand head, down 24 percent from a year ago. Marketings of fed cattle during June were 46 thousand head, down 13 percent from 2013.

On Friday, USDA also release the July 1 Cattle Inventory report. This report was not available in July 2013, due to sequestration, so there are no comparisons available for 2013. Beef cows totaled 29.7 million, were down 3 percent from July 1, 2012. Beef replacement heifers, 4.1 million, down 2 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.6 million, down 6 percent. The 2014 calf crop is expected to be 33.6 million, down 1 percent from 2013 and down 2 percent from 2012.

On Tuesday, July 22nd, USDA also released a cold storage report. Leffler says that report showed May beef stocks were lower by 5.8 percent, versus the previous month.   Beef stocks were down 21.5 percent versus a year ago. This was the lowest May beef stocks since 2010 and this was the first monthly beef stocks below 400 million pounds since September 2010.

Click Here to read the full USDA Cattle on Feed report.

Click Here for the full July 1 Cattle Inventory report.

Click Here for the full Cold Storage report.



Analysis from Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
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