Anderson Says Odds Against Big Drop In Wheat PricesThu, 31 Jul 2014 18:10:37 CDT
Wheat prices are on the decline again this week, but how low will it go? On this Saturday's SUNUP program, Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Economist Kim Anderson looks at the global wheat situation and the price outlook for 2015.
Anderson said there is negative news for France and Germany where they are having too much rain which is impacting the quality of the crop. Anderson said its dry in Australia and eastern growing region, so there is concern for that wheat crop. Additionally there are also potential economic sanctions against Russia, which could inhibit their exports.
With the step decline in the market, where is the bottom in the market? Anderson has stated that $6 - 6.05 remains to be strong support price.
"You look at the technicals, the charts are telling you that the September contract price is going to go to $5.70," Anderson said. "I think the odds are against that, maybe about 35 percent chance of that happening."
"That would drop cash prices down to around $5.40.....If cash prices drop 13 to 15 cents, then they will go on down, so I have the bottom for cash (wheat) around $5.40," he said.
As wheat producers look ahead to this next year at their cropping systems. In looking at wheat and canola, Anderson offered his best prediction for prices next June.
For June 2015 he is predicting the wheat price to be $5.50 and canola to be at $8.25. If you look at forward contracting, Anderson said right now farmers can forward contract wheat for June 15 delivery at $5.80 and canola for $8.15.
-This week on SUNUP, we learn from Dave Lalman and Jason Warren about a DASNR research project comparing traditional cattle grazing methods with a more intensive grazing system.
-Tom Royer explains how Sugarcane Aphids are impacting Oklahoma sorghum and offers treatment options.
-In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland takes a look at Oklahoma's rainfall amounts for the year and explains how 2013 and 2014 rainfall totals compare to the 15-year average.
-Saleh Taghvaeian demonstrates an irrigation study currently underway and invites viewers to the 2014 Oklahoma Irrigation Conference August 19 in Fort Cobb.
-In Cow Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains how to stockpile bermudagrass.
-Then, Kim Anderson takes a look at the downward direction for the markets and suggests a set of prices to use as a planning guideline for fall 2014.
-Jody Campiche has a farm bill update with details on the Supplemental Coverage Option.
-In Ag Apps, Brian Arnall takes us through some of his favorite crop tools for the smart phone or tablet.
-Finally, in Shop Stop, Randy Taylor and Wayne Kiner have a tip on how to improve tie-downs on your truck.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
Catch SUNUP online through the OSU website or through YouTube.
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