Kevin Good of Cattlefax Forecasts Strong Markets into 2015Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:33:06 CDT
This year has been quite the ride for cattle producers in 2014. At the recent Summer Cattle Industry Convention in Denver, Cattle Fax Senior Market Analyst Kevin Good told Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm News Director Ron Hays about the recording breaking year and the outlook for 2015. Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear Good's complete comments.
"We're enjoying record high values for all classes of cattle," Good said. "The fed market is probably the most challenging as you analyze that today because we have had a tremendous run up over the past few weeks."
Good said the market is extremely overbought and fed values as a percent of retail are extremely wide, thus indicating the fed market is probably due for a set back in the next few weeks.
"It's still going to stay historically strong, but here in the mid - 160's area might be kind of a spot that we have some trouble pushing through or even maintaining through the second half of the year," Good said.
If the second half of the year remains strong, Good anticipates more cattle will be sold in the 150's to low to mid 160's range. Looking at the yearling and calf market, he says those categories are well supported. The yearling market is trading about a $220 on a US average on a 750 pound steer. With grain values moving lower, Good said that does support about a $220 yearling, so that market looks to be supported into the second half of 2014.
Calf values are averaging around $255 on a 550 pound steer calf. Good said with lower input costs, improved moisture conditions and roughage supplies going into fall, all of those factors should support calf values holding onto to near present levels going forward.
Looking ahead to 2015, Good says there will continue to be tight beef supplies.
"Assuming what you have done year-to-date is real from the demand side, you make the argument that you should average higher in '15 than you do in '14," Good said. "So that's where you start your base."
In 2015 there will be more pork and poultry production, so total meat supplies next year could actually be larger.
"Yes, the supply side does definitely feel like we could continue average higher in '15, but there are some other factors out there that say maybe we're getting to the top end of this range," Good said.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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