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Agricultural News

Traders Anticipate Bearish Numbers in Friday's USDA Report

Tue, 07 Oct 2014 17:10:05 CDT

Traders Anticipate Bearish Numbers in Friday's USDA Report

Trade analysts are anticipating the US Department of Agriculture will be boosting crop production estimates on Friday. Leading up to report, Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities talked with the Radio Oklahoma Network. In following the Reuters trade estimates which are compiled from a survey of traders, Leffler said overall they are predicting US corn production to come in at 14.506 billion bushels, which is a increase over last month's USDA report by 111 million bushels with a average corn yield of 174.7 bushels per acre. That is an increase of three bushels per acre. Traders are looking for USDA to revise the number of harvested acres. The trade is anticipating an average drop of 681 thousand harvested acres of corn.

Traders are predicting the nation's soybean production will be 3.97 billion bushels, which is a increase of 63 million bushels over last's months USDA report. The trade is predicting an average soybean yield of 47.6 bushels per acre, one bushel greater than September's estimate. The trade is also anticipating the number of harvested soybean acres to drop by 437 thousand acres.

USDA will also release new crop ending stocks. Traders are anticipating ending stocks to increase for corn and wheat, while dropping for soybeans. Leffler said traders are predicting US corn ending stocks to come in at 2.13 billion bushels, up 128 million bushels over the September report. US Wheat Stocks are predicted to come in at 704 million bushels, an increase of six million bushels over last month. Traders anticipate soybean ending stocks to drop by three million bushels to come in at 472 million bushels.

On Friday, USDA will also release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. Leffler said traders are anticipating global wheat stocks to remain virtually unchanged at 196.38 million metric ton.   Global corn production looks to increase by 2 million ton to slightly above 192 million metric ton and small increase of soybeans at 90.76 million metric tons, an increase 59 thousand metric ton.

Allendale is predicting USDA will lower planted and harvested acreage numbers while boosting corn and soybean yields. In a press release Allendale is predicting US planted corn acres to decline by 325 thousand acres and harvested acres to drop 267 thousand acres over USDA's September acreage report. Allendale anticipates a national corn yield to increase to 175.5. Allendale expects US planted soybean acres to decline by 502 thousand acres and harvested acres to drop 480 thousand acres to 83.578 million. Allendale predicts a national soybean yield of 48 bushels per acre. Despite an increase in new crop production of 102 million, Allendale is predicting lower ending stocks due to smaller 2013/14 ending stocks and greater new crop soybean demand.

"Overall we are looking at the US production, world ending stocks, the US ending stocks overall to see increases over what we saw last month," Leffler said. "Overall that means we're expecting to see a price bearish report to take place for our wheat, corn and soybeans and after the upside we've seen the last couple days on technical buying in our wheat, corn and soybeans, it could possibly give this market a little bit more room to work back down close to those contract lows that we saw put in last week."    

Friday's USDA supply and demand report will be released at 11 am Central Time. Be listening for reaction to Friday's report on the Radio Oklahoma Network.



Leslie Smith visits with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
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