Anderson Analyzes USDA Supply and Demand Report on SUNUPThu, 11 Dec 2014 18:25:50 CST
This week's report grain stocks report came in close to trade expectations. On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, host Lyndall Stout interviews Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson about the US Department of Agriculture's World Supply and Demand Estimate report that came out on Wednesday. Anderson said there were minor changes in the ending stocks for wheat and the report lowered hard red winter wheat exports from 320 million bushels down to 305 million bushels. He said the changes for US corn were even less significant with ending stocks slightly less than two million bushels. He thought the soybean numbers were significant as they came in at 410 million bushels for ending stocks. That was lower than trade expectations of 431 million bushels. Additionally world soybean stocks were lowered.
Looking ahead to this next week, Anderson expects Kansas City wheat prices will trade below $6.20 and probably continue sideways from $5.80 to $6.20. If prices can get above $6.20, then he thinks it is possible for prices to move sideways at the slightly higher level. Corn remains in a sideways trading pattern between $3.75 - $4.00 for the March 2015 contract. Anderson thinks it will continue to remain sideways. Soybeans are also trading sideways from $9.80 to $10.60. Anderson said he looks for sideways trading to continue for soybeans as well but the lower soybean ending stocks could get prices to break through $10.60 but he doesn't think that is likely.
In moving into this holiday period, Anderson believes the markets will be depend mostly on what the funds do in the weeks ahead. He looks for prices to waller around until the January WASDE report comes out. He said that report has much more influence on the market in causing more price movements than the December report. Overall he doesn't expect much price movement for the remainder of December. Anderson said if farmers have wheat in the bin, then they should be marketing some of the crop during these price rallies.
In marketing the 2015 crop, Anderson recommends waiting until after the first of the year. If farmers are buying feed he doesn't think it will matter if farmers are buying hand-to-mouth or contracting out into the future. If farmers can't afford higher prices then he recommends contracting, but he doesn't anticipate much movement for any of the commodity prices for the next two or three weeks.
This week on SUNUP, we talk with Bob Hunger about scouting wheat leaf rust and learn how DASNR’s Wheat Improvement Team researches the fungus while developing potential new varieties.
-- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk has tips on preventing grass tetany.
-- Next, we have a conversation with Evan Fraser of the University of Guelf in Canada, about the topic of meeting the demand to feed nine billion people by the year 2050.
-- In the Mesonet report, Al Sutherland and Gary McManus show us the latest drought monitor, determine how rainfall since August 1 compares to the state average and explain the factors behind the recent fog across Oklahoma.
-- Then, we take a look back at Mesonet’s presence in Oklahoma, as the environmental monitoring network marks its 20th anniversary.
-- Kim Anderson analyzes this week’s USDA supply and demand report, and has the latest on wheat prices.
-- A reminder from the ag policy team about upcoming deadlines for farm bill programs.
-- Finally, in Shop Stop, Randy Taylor and Wayne Kiner demonstrate a way to repurpose roller chain parts.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
SUNUP can be seen on OETA across the state of Oklahoma- Dr. Anderson's segment on the markets is one of the standard features of this weekly show from Oklahoma State University. Catch SUNUP online through the OSU website by clicking here or through YouTube by clicking here.
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Top Agricultural News