Peel Predicts Another Strong Year for Cattle Producers in 2015Fri, 02 Jan 2015 15:46:46 CST
As we begin the new year, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Dr. Derrell Peel provides his outlook for the year ahead. He said if you look at where we have been in 2014, that is a pretty good barometer of what will be happening in the cattle market for 2015.
"I think by in large it is the same set of factors we have been watching this year," Peel said. "To some extent, I think it is more of the same tendencies from a supply standpoint. We will see reduced slaughter, we will see reduced beef production as a result of that, even with some likely increase in carcass weights on average in 2015."
Radio Oklahoma Network Farm Director Ron Hays featured Peel on the Beef Buzz feature. Click or tap on the LISTEN BAR below to listen to today's Beef Buzz.
Peel looks for more supply pressure as feeder calf supplies continue to tighten. He is predicting prices across the board will average higher in 2015. That includes feeder cattle, fed cattle and beef prices at the wholesale and retail levels, but he doesn't think the industry will see a large price increase through the year, like 2014. Peel forecasts we will maintain these levels and push them a little higher at times through the year. As a result prices will average higher for 2015.
One of the factors that may determine how much higher beef and cattle prices may go will be determined by how many females are held back. Peel believes herd rebuilding is taking place, but how quickly is still unknown.
"Certainly there is a lot of incentive and I think a lot of response to that incentive on the part of producers to save heifers ," Peel said. "I have heard some people worry that we could have a quote 'glut of replacement heifers' available next year. I really don't think that is warranted, I think as fast as we can do it, we haven't done this in a long time and I think there will be a lot of replacement heifers, but I think that's really the normal expectation for the beginnings still of expansion that we're in."
Peel believes the US cattle industry expanded somewhat in 2014, but the data has not been released to confirm that yet. He expects there will be more expansion and really acceleration of expansion in 2015. So there are still a lot of questions ahead about how fast we are going to do that and obviously how high female prices are going to go in the interim to get that job done.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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