US Wheat Supplies Smaller, Higher Exports Lower Ending Stocks
Thu, 08 Jan 2015 12:14:37 CST
The nation's wheat supply will be lower than a year ago. The US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service released an annual year in review on the nation's wheat crop. Drought and freeze damage lowered wheat production this past year while exports were up sharply over the previous year. This report provides an annual year-in-review discussion of the 2013/14 domestic marketing year (June 1, 2013 - May 31, 2014), covering supply, utilization, ending stocks, and prices.
A defining feature of the 2013/14 U.S. wheat marketing year was the striking impact of regional weather conditions on by-class production and supplies. Hard red winter (HRW) seedings were reduced compared to the previous year due to drought in the Southern and Central Plains at planting time. HRW production was further reduced as continued dry conditions and spring freeze damage resulted in low yields and a high rate of abandonment particularly in the western parts of this region. In contrast, favorable weather at seeding time led to increased soft red winter (SRW) planted area. Continued favorable weather through the growing season resulted in high SRW yields.
Spring wheat production was lower than the previous year as a late spring and excessive moisture in the Northern Plains significantly delayed spring wheat planting, and resulted in substantial prevented plantings. The loss of planted area in the Northern Plains was partially offset by higher yields resulting from favorable weather during the growing season. Production of hard red spring (HRS) and durum were both down year to year. Durum production was especially affected-down 30 percent year to year.
Another feature of the 2013/14 U.S. wheat marketing year was the sharply reduced feeding of wheat with the recovery of U.S. corn production from the previous year's severe drought. The recovery of U.S. corn production and subsequent year to year corn price decline contributed to lower wheat prices in the 2013/14 marketing year.
Supplies. Total U.S. supplies for 2013/14, at 3,021 million bushels, were down 97 million bushels from the previous year as lower beginning stocks and production were only partially offset by higher imports. Beginning stocks for 2013/14 were 718 million bushels, 25 million bushels less than in 2012/13. All-wheat production was estimated at 2,135 million bushels for 2013, down 117 million bushels from 2012. All-wheat harvested area for 2013 was 45.3 million acres, down 3.5 million acres from the previous year. The U.S. all-wheat yield was 47.1 bushels per acre, exceeding the previous record of 46.2 bushels for 2012.
Utilization. Domestic use of wheat in 2013/14 was down year-to-year by 132 million bushels to 1,256 million bushels due to sharply lower feed and residual use as U.S. corn production recovered from the previous year's drought. Feed and residual use was down 142 million bushels from the previous marketing year to 228 million bushels. Other domestic uses were up slightly. Increased flour use due to population growth and a slight increase in per capita use was were partially offset by continued high extraction rates-the amount of flour produced from a given quantity of wheat-resulting in a small increase in bushels of wheat milled compared with the year before. Seed use was also up slightly. U.S. exports for 3 Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2014/January 2015 Economic Research Service, USDA 2013/14 were up 164 million bushels from 2012/13 to 1,176 million bushels as markets expanded for U.S. wheat. U.S. exports were at 1,176 million bushels for 2013-2014. That's up 164 million bushels over the previous year due to greatly expanded exports to China and Brazil.
Ending stocks. Total U.S. ending stocks for 2013/14, at 590 million bushels, were down 128 million bushels from those of 2012/13. Though U.S. ending stocks have dropped each year since 2009/10's 976 million bushels, 2013/14 stocks are still 284 million bushels above the ending stocks for 2007/08, which were the lowest since the late 1940s.
Price. The season-average price (SAP) for 2013/14 was $6.87 per bushel, down from the record high $7.77 per bushel for 2012/13. The high SAP for 2012/13 was partially the result of the high corn prices due to the Midwest drought of 2012.
To read the full ERS report, click or tap here.
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