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Agricultural News


U.S. Cattle on Feed Up Slightly, Beef Storage Up Strongly Over January

Fri, 20 Feb 2015 16:10:42 CST

U.S. Cattle on Feed Up Slightly, Beef Storage Up Strongly Over January The latest cattle on feed numbers held no surprises, coming in near trade expectations. The latest estimate was released Friday afternoon by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities called the report neutral to bearish with the on feed numbers in line with expectations, placements came in at 89%, which was slightly negative and marketings came in at 91%, which was near expectations. Leffer said he didn't see anything that was a shock to the market.


The U.S. had 10.626 million head of cattle on feed, as of February first. That was slightly above a year ago and 4.3% below the three year average. Leffler said this was the second smallest February on feed number of the past 12 years. In the three major cattle feeding states of Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, he said they all saw 2% increases in their on feed numbers.


Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith interviewed Leffler after the report came out on Friday. Click or tap on the LISTENBAR below to listen to the full interview.


Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.79 million, 11% below 2014. Net placements were 1.71 million head. Leffler said this was the fifth smallest January placements of the past 20 years. Texas was down 14%, Nebraska down 9% and Kansas was down 6% versus a year ago.


During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 405,000, down 13.8%, 600-699 pounds were at 340,000, down 21.8%, 700-799 pounds was at 477,000, down 14.7%, and 800 pounds and greater totaled 565,000, up 2.7% versus last year.


Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.63 million, 9 percent below 2014. January marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Leffler said Texas was down 10%, Kansas down 8%, and Nebraska 4% compared to a year ago. Other disappearance totaled 77,000 during January, 8% above 2014.


The latest cold storage report looks to grab the attention of traders, more so than the latest cattle on feed report. Leffler said this report showed that stocks of the nation's beef supplies are growing as the amount of beef in storage came in 490.937 million pounds, which is up 10.5% from last month and 14.4% above a year ago. Leffler said we are starting to see beef stocks back up, as this is the highest level since April 2013. Part of that can be attributed to the labor dispute on the west coast that has resulted in the ports being shut down, along with slower domestic demand with the hard winter on the east coast.


In looking at market reaction from these reports, Leffler said the cattle on feed will likely have little effect, while the beef storage might start to get noticed. Leffler said traders are looking at a lot of factors with lower cash cattle trade reported this past week, the futures market had triple digit losses on Friday and the futures market has traded sideways for 19 sessions now in the majority of the live and feeder cattle contracts. Leffler said this market is poised to break out to the downside with some new lows or break out to the upside and show some positiveness.

   

   

Leslie Smith gets analysis from Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
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