Agricultural News
USDA Expects Beef and Pork Production to Fall While Broiler Output Rises
Tue, 10 Nov 2015 15:46:48 CST
The USDA is predicting beef production lower for the current year and into 2016 as well- based on lower marketings coming out of feedlots. Pork production is also expected to be lower, while broiler output is headed higher. Here is the actual text of the November WASDE report for the meat and milk segments of the ag economy.
"The total meat production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are little changed from last month due to largely offsetting changes in red meat and poultry. Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered on slower expected marketings from feedlots into early 2016. However, the slower pace of slaughter is partly offset by higher expected carcass weights. Pork production is lowered for 2015 on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights during the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2016 is unchanged. However, broiler production is forecast higher for both 2015 and 2016. September production was higher than expected, and hatchery data points to higher production into early 2016. Turkey production in September was also higher than expected, which boosted 2015 production, although no change was made to the forecast quarters. Egg production for 2015 is adjusted based on lower September hatching egg production, but production forecasts into 2016 are unchanged.
"Beef imports for 2015 are reduced to reflect the pace of trade to date; the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand remains relatively weak; no change is made to 2016. Pork import and export foreca sts are unchanged, but small adjustments are made to third-quarter 2015 to reflect September trade data. Broiler exports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the pace of ex port recovery has been slower than expected.
"Cattle and hog prices for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as large broiler m eat supplies are expected to continue to pressure markets. Turkey prices are unc hanged for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced slightly. Egg prices are lowered into first-half 2016, reflecting recent price movements.
"The milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the dairy herd is expected to decline more rapidly from its sec ond-quarter peak and growth in milk per cow in 2015 remains slower than expected. Imports ar e reduced on both a fat and skim-solids basis for both years as imports of milk protein concentrate s and casein are expected to be lower. Exports are reduced for 2015 on weaker butter, cheese and whey sales. Largely uncompetitive prices are likely to limit growth in export sales of butter and to a lesser extent, cheese in 2016, and fat- based exports are reduced."
Click here for the complete USDA WASDE Report for November, 2015.
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