Allendale, Inc. Estimates a Decline in December Placements for Upcoming Cattle on Feed ReportMon, 22 Jan 2018 11:38:27 CST
The folloing are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. As of this writing, it is unclear if the government shutdown will impact the scheduled release.
December Placements are expected 3.9% under last year at 1.715 million head. The year over year decline in December is noteworthy as it stops the 10.2% to 13.9% year over year increases in the three previous months. Profitability concerns have been recognized. Finished cattle from December through March are estimated with a $123 breakeven according to Kansas State University. This increases to $126 and $129 for April and May. December placements supply the May through August slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in December at 1.5% under last year for a total of 1.750 million. This would be the second largest December in six years. There was one more weekday in December 2017 than December 2016. Actual marketings, at 2.9% over last year, were therefore revised down to 1.5% under last year for this report.
Total Cattle on Feed as of January 1 is 7.6% over last year at 11.415 million. This is the largest January 1 total in six years.
Allendale projects a 475 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of December. The five-year average is 526 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 30 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for December is a 9 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 503 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 486. This month's estimate represents an increase of 16 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average shows a 19 million lb. increase for this month.
Source - Allendale, Inc.
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