LMIC's Jim Robb Expects Lower Placements and Moderating Herd Growth in Cattle On Feed PreviewWed, 24 Jan 2018 10:44:49 CST
This coming Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture will release the first feedlot numbers for the year in its Cattle on Feed report. Jim Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center sat down with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays to share his preview of the report, based on LMIC’s expectations and industry estimates. Robb believes this report will be typical of most, focused on the all-important number of cattle being placed into feedlots.
“Kind of like recent months, there’s a lot of uncertainty on Placements,” Robb said. “People are going to look at that number very closely.”
Going down his list of expectations, Robb says he is predicting the report will show that Placements decreased from a year ago by three percent. However, he admits there are some mixed signals coming from cattle country, especially in the Southern Plains, as to just how many cattle have actually entered feedlots. This problem only adds to the uncertainty of the situation. Beyond that, Robb estimates that Marketings will remain aggressive as they have been in recent months, but perhaps down one or two percent from a year ago. He points out though that there is one less slaughter day to account for than the previous year. All things considered, Robb says this report will add up to a total on feed inventory up eight percent year-over-year. He notes this will be the largest on feed inventory since January 1, 2012 if his estimates are correct. Aside from those numbers, Robb says he will eager to see what the report says about the rate of herd expansion.
“Another critical thing in this report that I think myself and other analysts will look at is the breakdown by class of animals on feed. That’s the breakdown of steers versus heifers on feed,” he explained. “This is really critical. That population of heifers needs to remain as it has in recent months - well above a year ago. That points us in the direction of a moderating herd growth and it really is a major barometer as we look ahead to the next six months to two years.”
Listen to Robb offer his preview of the upcoming USDA Cattle on Feed report to Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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