Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Agricultural News


CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018

Fri, 02 Feb 2018 13:28:57 CST

CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018


CattleFax celebrated its 50th anniversary during the popular CattleFax Outlook Session at the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show. CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good highlighted the industry’s profitability during 2017 and said the trend looks to continue into 2018.



In an interview with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays following his presentation, Good explained that the U.S beef cow inventory increased 2.8 million head in four years, and an additional 200,000-400,000 head are expected to be added to the herd over the next few years. Good said there are growing supplies of protein coming to market during the year ahead, including large supplies of competing proteins, which will weigh on all beef prices.



“We have a bigger supply of all proteins ahead in 2018. For the past year we were very fortunate to have solid export volume,” said Good. “We are forecasting trade to increase year-over-year in 2018, but still, the rate of production is out-pacing the rate of exports.”



Although beef production is expected to increase to 27.5 billion pounds during 2018, Good said current consumer demand is expected to remain good and potentially increase as retail prices moderate. He said CattleFax is predicting beef to remain a strong competitor against other proteins.



“Demand is robust on all fronts. Domestically, retail demand is increasing and beef is being featured more in the consumer markets,” said Good. “The retail and foodservice industries are doing very well and the solid economy in the United States is one of the main drivers as unemployment rates continue to decline and per capita income rises.”



Good said even though beef demand is high, leverage will continue to be a challenge for the feedlot and packing segments as shackle space becomes increasingly constrained by rising slaughter rates. With the growth in production, Good said he anticipates lower, but still profitable price levels for the cow-calf segment, while feeders and backgrounders will see their margins narrow.



Input costs are expected to remain manageable, with grain prices expected to remain steady. According to CattleFax, yields will drive corn prices in 2018-19 marketing year with no significant changes anticipated in acreage or demand. Futures corn prices are projected to range from $3.25 to $3.95 per bushel as supplies remain adequate. With more livestock to feed in 2018 and the smallest acreage on record in 2017, CattleFax predicts hay prices will increase $10-$15 per ton with additional weather-related price risks.



Drought conditions have been spreading across the United States since last winter with the Southwest being impacted the most. Art Douglas, professor emeritus, Creighton University, predicts a possible transition from La Niña conditions to a weaker El Niño by summer. U.S. weather patterns over the next three months will be dictated by La Niña. However, equatorial warming could shift drought patterns across North America by late spring and summer.



During the session, CattleFax analysts predicted fed cattle prices lower than prior year levels, averaging $115 per hundredweight (cwt.). Good said fed cattle prices are likely to face resistance near the $130 level, with downside risk in the upper $90 range. He predicted bargaining position will continue to favor cattle processors and retailers, with profit margins at or above 2017 levels.



CattleFax projected 750-pound steers will average $1 lower than 2017 levels at $145/cwt., with a range from the upper $120s to $160/cwt. Meanwhile, U.S. average 550-pound steer calves will see a trading range from $170/cwt. at the spring high to an average price in the upper $130s, during the fall marketing season. For the full year, calf prices are expected to average $158/cwt.



Listen to Good further explain his analysis of current market trends in the cattle industry and his expectations for 2018, with Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.



The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.


Coverage of the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater - click here - to learn more about how they can help your farm or ranch operation's bottom line in a variety of ways.





   



   



Hear Good explain his analysis of current market trends and expectations for the beef industry in 2018
right-click to download mp3

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 


Top Agricultural News

  • Friday Market Wrap-Up with Justin Lewis  Fri, 25 May 2018 14:50:28 CDT
  • USDA's April 1 Cattle on Feed Report Congruent with Industry Expectations- LMIC's Jim Robb Reacts  Fri, 25 May 2018 14:44:56 CDT
  • Friday Afternoon Market Wrap-Up with Carson Horn  Fri, 25 May 2018 13:54:29 CDT
  • Emily Case of Dewey, Okla. Recognized as a Significant Woman in Agriculture by Oklahoma Ag Dept  Fri, 25 May 2018 09:54:09 CDT
  • OSU Holds Off Participation in OK's Hemp Pilot Program for 2018 Growing Season to Study It Instead  Fri, 25 May 2018 09:40:01 CDT
  • What's Consumers' "Beef" with Beef? Consumer Panel Reveals Concerning Issues of Misinformation  Fri, 25 May 2018 09:35:21 CDT
  • Atop the RON Rural Soapbox - Former Secretary John Block  Fri, 25 May 2018 07:21:43 CDT
  • Friday Preopening Market Update with Dave Lanning  Fri, 25 May 2018 07:20:24 CDT

  • More Headlines...

       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Livestock Exchange Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit P&K Equipment Stillwater Milling American Farmers & Ranchers KIS FUTURES, INC. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association Oklahoma City Farm Show

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com

    Find more about Weather in Oklahoma City, OK

       
       
    © 2008-2018 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.