LMIC's Jim Robb Says USDA's Next Cattle on Feed Report Has Potential to Surprise the MarketplaceThu, 22 Mar 2018 11:07:03 CDT
The last several monthly Cattle on Feed reports have shown bigger placement numbers of cattle than a year ago. Jim Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center remarked to Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays recently, that this theme is likely to continue in the next report expected out this Friday afternoon from the USDA.
“The expectation is for more of the same in terms of placements, but a rather wide range in those estimates and most of the unknowns being in the Southern Plains,” Robb said. “Especially because of drought conditions and most of the Southern Plains, especially the western parts, there’s a wide range.”
In terms of placements, Robb says the LMIC’s estimates for this upcoming report have landed near the lower end of that range. But, as they continue to receive data, he says they are actually gravitating towards higher numbers. He predicts placements will probably come in at 100 percent to 107 percent to a year ago. Marketings, he says, should come in at about 2 percent above last year. And with that, he says total cattle on feed may end up between 7.5 and 8.5 percent more than last year.
“If it’s up towards a higher end, towards that expected range that does dampen the enthusiasm more as many of these cattle come out late in the summer quarter out of feedyards for marketing,” he said. “So, this is a report that has the potential to surprise the marketplace a little bit. If we start to back up larger numbers, that will really hit these fed cattle prices pretty hard and pretty quickly. It’s not an immediate concern but as we get into the summer quarter and fall quarter, we’re going to have to watch this very closely.”
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