Oklahoma Winter Wheat Crop Predictions Are Dismal- Ranging from 58 to 63 Million Bushels as 2018 Harvest Comes Into SightTue, 01 May 2018 13:57:51 CDT
While the numbers that were discussed at the closing session of the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association annual meeting predict a significantly smaller Oklahoma wheat crop for 2018- wheat industry leader Mark Hodges says "I would emphasize the word estimates because at this time we are very uncertain the number of acres that will be harvested and what happens to the crop from this point forward will be very critical as far as timely moisture and those kind of things." He adds that "I'm going to guess we are anywhere from one to two weeks behind normal development on this crop" which brings even more uncertainty to the table about the eventual yield and total bushels of the 2018 crop. Click on the Listen Bar at the bottom of this story to listen to Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Director of Farm Programming Ron Hays talk with Market Hodges after the numbers were announced.
According to the District by District reports that were presented on Tuesday morning in Oklahoma City, the reporters from all districts combined expect a total harvested crop of 2,454,482 acres- estimating a 25.6 bushel per acre yield which results in 63.32 million bushels. The idnustry reperesentatives at the meeyting- including many grain elevator operators- are more pessimistic in that they only expect 2.355 million acres to be harvested for grain- with a yield of 24.787 bushels per acre for a crop that may only total 58.362 million bushels.
Among the worries of the crop scouts across the state were the many acres that will not be harvested for wheat this year- many of those will be grazed out or have zero forage and will be zeroed out by crop adjusters. In southern Oklahoma- there are thousands of acres that continue to be shifted to cotton and in north central Oklahoma- there is significant freeze damage.
The most pessimistic reports came from Harper County Extension's Darrell McBee and Custer County's Ron Wright. McBee opened his presentation by declaring there is no wheat in the Panhandle this year. He amended that view by saying Cimmaron County has some of the best dryland wheat in the four counties- Harper County has the worst.
Ron Wright said that the wheat in west central Oklahoma started open with potential- but after planted quickly things turned into a train wreck and conditions had remained that way to the present time.
The 58 to 63 million bushel estimates compare to 100 million bushels predicted for the 2017 crop at the beginning of May a year ago- the over 130 million bushels predicted in 2016.
The summary of the districts that were reported can be seen in the graphic above- one correction here is to the actual harvested acreage predicted- the total should read 2,454,482 acres.
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