Cattle Inventory Projections Suggest Cow/Calf Producers Can Expect a Fairly Positive Year in 2018Wed, 11 Jul 2018 10:15:24 CDT
The US Department of Agriculture’s mid-year cattle inventory report, along with the monthly cattle on feed numbers, will be released Friday, July 20, 2018 and it is one Kansas State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Glynn Tonsor says is worth paying attention. He shared with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays recently some of his predictions and analyses of the impact the upcoming report will have on cattle markets, based on pre-report estimates issued by the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
“I think it’s important to pay attention to this report just like the January one that comes out each year, as a periodic assessment of a big aggregate supply situation,” he explained, sharing that the LMIC is projecting the mid-year beef cow inventory to be up 0.9 percent. “If that holds, that would be 32.5 million head and would be the largest inventory of beef cows we’ve had since 2008.”
The LMIC is also projecting that heifers being held for replacement to be off about 4 percent. That would be about 4.5 million head and consistent with most people’s expectations in that interest in expansion has slowed. In addition to that, LMIC’s projection for the next calf crop (based on the prior year’s breeding efforts) is estimated to rise as much as 1.4 percent - putting the industry at approximately 36.3 million head, making that the largest calf crop since 2007.
“All those numbers kind of point to and kind of remind us of how large the inventories we’re dealing with are,” Tonsor remarked. “The good news is demand has remained positive despite that. I think the average cow/calf producer is going to have a positive year in 2018, but we’re not talking $300-400 returns per cow like we were a few years ago.”
Listen to Tonsor offer his predictions about what impact the upcoming mid-year cattle inventory report from USDA will have on the future of the cattle market for 2018, with Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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